2023 NFL playoff picture: Here are the 14 teams projected to make the postseason heading into Week 12
As the NFL season heads into Thanksgiving week, all 32 teams have something to be thankful for right now and that’s the fact that they’re all still alive in the playoff race.
That’s right, as we head into Week 12, every single team is still alive. The 1-9 Panthers could still sneak in if everything goes their way. The 2-8 Patriots could still save Bill Belichick’s job with a miracle run to the playoffs. The New York Football Giants could still WIN the NFC East. Sure, they’d have to win out and the Eagles would have to lose out, but the point here is that it’s still possible.
So what are the chances that any of that actually happens? That’s what we’re going to answer right now in this week’s playoff projection. The projections here are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. Oh plugged some numbers into his SportsLine computer this week and simulated the rest of the 2023 NFL season, and using those numbers, we’re going to let you know the playoff chances for all 32 teams, plus the projected 14-team playoff field.
With that in mind, let’s get to this week’s playoff projections (For more from Stephen Oh and his SportsLine “Inside the Lines” team, you can tune into his YouTube channel daily at 1 p.m. ET by clicking here).
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West Champion) |
| Although the Chiefs (7-3) literally dropped the ball with a loss on Monday night, the computer is still projecting Kansas City to finish as the top seed in the AFC. The biggest thing working in the Chiefs’ favor is that they have easiest remaining strength of schedule in the AFC (.425) while the Ravens have the fifth-most difficult strength of schedule (.583) in the entire NFL. |
| 2. (AFC North Champion) |
| The computer doesn’t seem to like the Ravens this week. Not only are the Ravens (8-3) not being projected to get the No. 1 seed, but Baltimore also has just a 51% chance of winning the AFC North, which is the lowest percentage of any current division leader in the NFL. That being said, the Ravens’ chances of winning the division are still way ahead of the Browns (31.3%) and Steelers (17.6%). |
| 3. (AFC East Champion) |
| At this point, the computer is projecting that the Dolphins (7-3) will coast to the AFC East title by finishing two games ahead of the Bills. If the Dolphins do win the division, it will mark the first time since 2008 that Miami has taken home the AFC East crown. The computer is giving the Dolphins an 85.4% chance of winning the division while Buffalo’s chances are sitting at just 13.3%. |
| 4. (AFC South Champion) |
| The AFC South is likely going to be decided on Sunday when the Jaguars travel to Houston. The winner of that game will take over first place in the division heading into Week 13. Right now, the computer likes the Jaguars (7-3) to win that game and the division. The computer will be hoping that Trevor Lawrence can improve on his 1-4 career record against the Texans. |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |
| Despite losing Deshaun Watson for the season, the computer still like the Browns (6-4) to make the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the computer views the Browns as a virtual lock to get to the postseason, giving them an 87.4% chance of making it. The computer is expecting that Cleveland’s historically good defense will play well enough to carry this team to the playoffs. |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |
| The Texans (6-4) have a 4-1 record against Trevor Lawrence and if that improves to 5-1 on Sunday, that will put Houston in a position to steal the AFC South. For now, though, the computer has the Texans projected comfortably into the sixth wild-card spot. |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |
| With Joe Burrow out for the season, the Steelers (6-4) appear to be the team that will benefit the most from that. The computer viewed the Bengals as a strong wild-card contender, but with Burrow out, the Bengals are being given an almost zero chance of making it. The reason the Steelers benefit here is because they face the Bengals twice over the final seven weeks, including this Sunday, and the computer now expects Pittsburgh to win both games. The computer is projecting the battle for the final wild-card spot to come down to the Bills and Steelers with Pittsburgh topping Buffalo by a full game in the standings. Besides the Bills, the computer views the Colts as the only other viable threat to the Steelers for the final playoff spot in the AFC. |
Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Bills (27.3%), Colts (25.7%), Chargers (14.6%), Broncos (12.8%),Raiders (4.2%), Jets (3.0%), Bengals (2.5%), Titans (0.5%), Patriots (0.1%).
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC East Champion) |
| After shocking the Chiefs in Kansas City on Monday night, the Eagles (9-1) are now the favorite to win the Super Bowl, according to the computer. The Eagles have a 19.64% chance of winning it all, which is slightly ahead of both the 49ers (18.9%) and Chiefs (18.04%). |
| 2. (NFC North Champion) |
| Although the computer loves the Lions (8-2), it doesn’t think Detroit will be able to catch the Eagles in the race for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. If the Lions were to somehow land the top seed, that would be huge news in Detroit, because it means the Lions would make it to the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time since 1991. Even if they don’t get the top seed, they could still reach the divisional round, but they’d have to win a wild-card game first. |
| 3. (NFC West Champion) |
| The computer loves the 49ers (7-3) chances of winning the Super Bowl, but it doesn’t think San Francisco has any chance of earning the top seed in the NFC. That being said, the computer does view the 49ers as a lock to win the NFC West: San Francisco has a 90.4% chance of winning the division while the Seahawks’ chances are sitting at just 8.7%. |
| 4. (NFC South Champion) |
| Although the Saints (5-5) are clinging to just a one-game lead in the NFC South, the computer still loves New Orleans to win the division. The Saints are being given a 62.9% chance of winning the NFC South, which is way ahead of both the Buccaneers (25.4) and Falcons (11.7). The Falcons could turn the division race upside down with a win over the Saints on Sunday. |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |
| The Cowboys (7-3) keep winning, but so do the Eagles, which means Dallas is almost certainly going to be stuck in the first wild-card spot for the second straight year. The upside for the Cowboys is that being the top wild-card means they’ll likely get to face the NFC South champion, which is almost like getting a bye to the next round. |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |
| After watching Seattle get upset in the Week 11, the computer still likes the Seahawks (6-4) to make the playoffs and that’s mostly because they have a two-game lead over the eight-seed. If the Seahawks go just 4-3 down the stretch, they’d finish 10-7 and that record would mean that a 4-6 eighth-seed would have to go 6-1 just to have a chance overtake Seattle in a potential tiebreaker. |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |
| Even after losing in Week 11, the Vikings are still a heavy favorite to make the playoffs. The computer is projecting that Minnesota will get the final seed in the NFC and the computer doesn’t think it will be particularly close. The computer has seven NFC teams finishing above .500 this year, including the Vikings, and those will be the only seven to make the playoffs (The other nine teams are projected to all finish below .500). |
Here’s a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Buccaneers (36.7%), Packers (19.6%), Rams (16.2%), Falcons (15.8%), Commanders (0.9%), Bears (0.5%), Giants (0.3%), Panthers (0.0%), Cardinals (0.0%).
Note: The Cardinals and Panthers haven’t technically eliminated from playoff contention yet, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has seen both teams play and it knows they’re not getting in.
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Steelers at (2) Ravens
(6) Texans at (3) Dolphins
(5) Browns at (4) Jaguars
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Vikings at (2) Lions
(6) Seahawks at (3) 49ers
(5) Cowboys at (4) Saints
Bye: Eagles
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