Credit growth in Q1 from 2017-2021. Unit:% The credit growth is higher than the normal level of the pre-translation economy, showing that the capital need to restore production and business is strongly increasing again. On the other hand, it may reflect the fact that a part of cheap capital flows into stocks and real estate. Some experts questioned, the State Bank expects credit growth 12-14% this year and be flexible according to the capital needs of the economy. At the starting point of low credit growth in Q1 2018, credit growth for the whole year also reached 14%. Similarly, 2019 is 13.5% – the lowest in a 5-year period. So with the current uptrend, where is the flexibility margin that the State Bank is expected to set? And if the State Bank is going to enforce the credit growth target that is only assigned once for the whole year, will it not be the end of the year that the credit room will be filled, how will banks do it? According to the Director of the Credit Department for Economic Sectors – SBV Nguyen Tuan Anh, from the beginning of this year, the State Bank has given 3 scenarios for credit growth in 2021, from 8-14%. “With current economic developments, the State Bank is aiming for a credit growth scenario at about 12%, but will flexibly adjust”, said Mr. Nguyen Tuan Anh.
Thus, if the last quarter is excluded, there is usually double credit growth (forecasted on the first quarter and total 12%, the fourth quarter has credit growth of about 5%), then credit growth in the remaining 2 quarters will also be only about 2.35 / quarter.
It can be seen as a level of balance control to keep credit growth high and the risk of deterioration in asset quality, as well as to avoid macro “crash” – in the opinion of TS. Vo Tri Thanh, Member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council. More importantly, in the momentum of high credit growth, credit quality needs to be rectified and tightly controlled to minimize risks.
Source: enternews.vn – Translated by fintel.vn