New analysis finds disease could affect billions in coming years: ‘We thought we knew how to deal with this epidemic’

Previously unaffected areas with higher altitudes and latitudes must now combat a preventable disease.

Rising global temperatures have put billions at risk for malaria, with billions more to come.

What’s happening?

According to a recent analysis from The Washington Post, by 2040, malaria could affect over 5 billion people worldwide. Currently, malaria affects hundreds of millions of people annually and took over 600,000 lives in 2021 alone, according to the World Health Organization.

As the planet warms, the disease spreads to new areas, and areas already affected are seeing record levels of cases.

The Washington Post studied three scientific models accounting for climate factors like temperature and rainfall patterns, then used those models to estimate which regions will become friendlier for the mosquitoes that transmit malaria. The analysis spotlights countries like Mozambique, where longer rainy seasons and extreme weather events enable mosquito breeding.

By 2040, over 1 billion Africans could be at risk.

Why is the spread of malaria concerning?

More malaria cases threaten vulnerable communities already feeling the effects of rising global temperatures, like droughts and floods that destroy homes. And where malaria expands, underprepared health systems and populations lacking immunity face higher death rates, especially among small children.

Hotter weather helps mosquitoes thrive and spread farther than before, with longer active seasons. Previously unaffected areas with higher altitudes and latitudes must now combat a preventable disease. For example, malaria that once disappeared from the U.S. in the mid-1900s could return to the American South.

“Efforts to fight malaria are at this crossroads, and have been seriously challenged by climate change,” Sherwin Charles, co-founder of Goodbye Malaria, told the Washington Post. “We thought we knew how to deal with this epidemic, but the complication of climate change brings different factors to bear that maybe we are not ready for.”

What’s being done to prevent the spread of malaria?

International groups such as Goodbye Malaria and the World Health Organization are working to end malaria by researching treatment options and providing preventive tools like insecticide-treated bed nets. Still, rising global temperatures challenge control efforts.

Fortunately, we all can help limit future warming and better prepare at-risk regions to face malaria’s spread. From using clean energy conduits like solar panels and electric vehicles to supporting leaders tackling the crisis, our choices today create tomorrow’s landscape.

Each seemingly inconsequential act chips in to cool the planet. Together, we can build a safer world.