Chinese investments abroad are expected to surge over the next half-decade as a rising number of companies are going global to explore the market, according to research by HSBC.
Annual flows of outward direct investment, if the current trend persists, could jump by more than 50 per cent, with at least US$1.4 trillion between now and 2028, HSBC Global Research said in a report on Wednesday.
Outward direct investment flows reached US$150 billion in 2022, and China became a net foreign direct investor early this year as the inbound flows dropped, the bank report said.
China was “late to the game” when it amped up overseas investments nearly two decades ago, but now its stock of outward direct investment has already surpassed that of Japan, Germany and the UK, becoming the world’s third-largest after the US and Netherlands, the report said.
However, its total outward FDI stock – the value of Chinese investors’ equity in, and net loans to, firms abroad – is still small relative to the size of China’s economy at 15.7 per cent. The bank put the total at between US$2.5 trillion and US$3 trillion. China’s 2022 GDP was about US$18 trillion.
The global average for outward FDI stock is about 34 per cent of GDP, and China’s total is about one-third of what comes out of the US, the report added.
“There is, therefore, plenty of room for China’s overseas investment footprint to grow,” it said.
In a more upbeat forecast, if outward investment rises along with China’s per-capita gross domestic product, the bank’s research arm said, those flows could expand at three times their recent annual pace to more than US$400 billion each year.
Chinese companies in the technology, renewable energy and EV sectors … will actively lead overseas investment
HSBC report
“Greater certainty surrounds the outlook for Chinese direct investment outflows,” the report said. “These are likely to accelerate in the coming years as they increasingly align with Chinese economic and political development priorities.
“We expect that Chinese companies in the technology, renewable energy and EV sectors, blessed with the government’s green light, are increasingly in the driver’s seat and will actively lead overseas investment.”
China’s outward direct investment peaked in 2016 before slipping under pressure from geopolitics, Covid-19 barriers, and the government’s tightened controls on capital outflows, HSBC said. The government that year also began a “clean-up” of “irrational” investments in foreign real estate, entertainment and hotels, the report said.
It added that Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East – accounting for most participants in China’s Belt and Road Initiative – are likely to see a rise in investment from China, while its investment flows to the US and European Union are expected to shrink due to geopolitical complications.
Surging inflows over the next few years would reflect the central government’s focus on improving the economy, said Chen Zhiwu, chair professor of finance at the University of Hong Kong.
“As a tactical move, it’s very clear that [China’s leadership] has accepted a temporary softening in terms of capital inflows and capital outflows as a way to put a stop to economic problems,” Chen said.
In the Middle East, HSBC noted, nations’ plans to diversify economies away from oil present a large market for Chinese companies. Energy and infrastructure projects will continue to be the backbone of China’s investment there. Chinese bellwether telecom infrastructure firm Huawei has “made headway” in expanding the Middle East’s 5G networks, the bank added.
The 10-country Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) was the top recipient of China’s outbound direct investment flows last year after 15 years of growth, HSBC said. Experience there, it said, “shows that trade and investment integration go hand in hand”.
Increased flows in Indonesia reflect China’s “strategy of building a comprehensive supply chain and securing material supplies for its new energy vehicle sector”, and Chinese carmakers’ expansion plans in Thailand may challenge Japan’s dominance in the Thai auto market, HSBC said.
“Going forward, we believe that the demand for metals and minerals is a key determinant in the nature, geography and magnitude of China’s outward direct investment,” it said.
Indonesians, though wary of environmental damage and “social” disruptions, will benefit from Chinese investments in otherwise underdeveloped parts of the huge archipelago, said Paramitaningrum, an international relations lecturer at Bina Nusantara University in Jakarta.
“China will venture to where previous countries won’t go,” Paramitaningrum said. “It can make the areas more developed.”
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