How Novak Djokovic can extend his lead as world No 1 at the Italian Open
The clay court season has panned out almost perfectly for Novak Djokovic.
Doubts swirled over the Serbian after his Monte Carlo defeat, but his absence from the Madrid Open may have ultimately been a blessing in disguise.
Djokovic would have watched on with huge interest seeing key rivals Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz struggle physically, with both now out of the Italian Open.
The world No 1 returns to action at the Foro Italico this fortnight and will certainly be the favourite for victory at a tournament he has won six times before.
And, ahead of the French Open, he has a chance to halt what many saw as Sinner’s inevitable rise to the top spot – and halt any chance of Alcaraz regaining the top ranking anytime soon.
As it stands
A run to the quarter-final at the Madrid Open saw Sinner close the gap ever so slightly, with Djokovic absent from the event.
Having also skipped the tournament in 2023, Djokovic remains on 9,990 points after action in the Spanish capital, while Sinner earned 200 ranking points and jumped up to 8,860 points.
But with his failure to defend his title at his home Masters 1000 event, Alcaraz has lost significant ground to the Serbian.
Alcaraz has slipped 800 points to 7,345 points – 2,645 behind the world No 1’s total.
Djokovic world No 1 graphic
Djokovic currently has a slight cushion as the world No 1.
How can Djokovic extend his lead?
The ranking ramifications across the Italian Open are now much simpler, with Sinner and Alcaraz both out of the tournament with injuries.
Sinner would have had the chance to overtake Djokovic as No. 1 with a strong Madrid and Rome but is sidelined with a hip issue – while Alcaraz is out with his ongoing arm injury.
Their respective withdrawals mean that both will drop a small number of points come the rankings update in two weeks.
Having reached round four in 2023, Sinner will lose 90 points and hold 8,770 points, while Alcaraz will lose 45 round three points and hold 7,300.
Initially, their lack of points to defend plays slightly to their advantage, with Djokovic having more points to defend than both.
The Serbian reached the quarter-final 12 months ago – losing to Holger Rune – and earned 180 points for that run.
In the live rankings, that sees Djokovic slip ever so slightly to 9,810 points; the 24-time major winner would still have a significant gap and can extend his lead even further.
The points have increased slightly for a quarter-final run in the men’s singles draw this year, from 180 points to 200 points, meaning that Djokovic will gain an initial 20 points if he matches his 2023 display.
Novak Djokovic’s potential points after the Italian Open
A run to the semi-final would see him earn 400 points, a run to the final 600 points, and he would claim 1,000 ranking points for winning the title.
Djokovic could be on 10,810 points by the next rankings update – a gap of almost 2000 points to the absent Sinner.
While that would not give him an unassailable points lead over Roland Garros – where he has 2,000 points to defend – it would make life more difficult for Sinner.