Why Muslims might finally vote for Modi this time

Why Muslims might finally vote for Modi this time

With the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) poised to return to power for a third consecutive term and no alternative in sight for years to come, Muslims are finally starting to smell the coffee and come to terms with the fact that the party is not going away any time soon.

The virtual collapse of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has shattered any lingering hope of getting rid of the BJP, prompting a belated rethink among Muslims of their informal voting boycott of the party. A strategy which, far from hurting the BJP, has in fact blown away the self-serving myth about the so-called ‘Muslim factor’ in winning elections.

The idea that a party cannot win an election without Muslim support has proved to be counterproductive, leading to further consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the BJP.

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All this is beginning to sink in slowly with the debate on the Muslim ‘street’ shifting from a blanket “never, never” to a willingness to take a punt on the BJP. And, for the first time, we could see many floating Muslim voters plump for the BJP in the coming general election.

The move is driven by a pragmatism not generally associated with them. It also reflects their increasing frustration with the so-called secular parties which they say have done little to address their concerns and have instead joined the scramble for Hindu votes.

As I write this, senior Samajwadi Party (SP) leader and former MP Saleem Shervani has quit the party in a huff, accusing it of “ignoring” Muslims. “This raises the question — how different are you from BJP,” he asked SP chief Akhilesh Yadav in a strongly-worded letter.

Taken for granted

There’s a creeping realisation that treating the BJP as an ‘untouchable’ was a mistake. A knee-jerk reaction which left the community pathetically dependent on anti-BJP parties, which began to take their votes for granted.

Young Muslims have emerged as the sharpest critics of the old community leadership. They believe it was a ‘folly’ to put all its eggs in the Opposition basket to spite the BJP, and want this strategy revisited.

Mind you, many Pasmanda Muslims — a sub-group representing the most backward Muslims — already vote for the BJP. The party won about 9% of the Muslim vote in the last general election, according to a Reuters study.

What is different this time is the likelihood of upper-class (Ashraf) Muslims voting for the BJP. How many, if any, would ultimately take the plunge is uncertain but the fact that they are willing to do so at all marks a fundamental shift in their attitude towards the BJP.

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Social media site Quora is awash with Muslims explaining why they would vote for the BJP in the coming election. Here’s a random sample:

“He has done tremendous job. Economy is in much better shape. Price are all time low. Toilets took 70 years to reach rural people. So imagine what previous government has done for us. Gas, electricity is reaching every part of country,” an ‘Anonymous’ respondent says.

Another, responding to the criticism that “He [Modi] only speaks about Hindus”, says:

“He is Hindu and if he is proud of that[.] We are no one to judge as we are proud of our culture. If you goto Gujarat you will see majority Muslims support Modi because of work he has done their. Whatever he is doing he is keeping 140 crore indians in mind. We generally vote for candidates of our own community. But still we are lagging behind as they are not giving more importance to our development. Our Muslims leaders know when election time come we will take out Muslims victim card and people will vote for us. Instead of hating Modi, we should take his help to make lives of our community better.”

The mood in UP

It is hard to establish the authenticity of these posts, but there is independent anecdotal evidence to support the broader Muslim mood reflected in these posts, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, my native state.

For all his ideological excesses, chief minister Yogi Adityanath, it is acknowledged, runs a relatively efficient administration which is doing some good work in improving public services and delivering Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s welfare schemes, as the following Quora post from a supposedly Muslim resident of Uttar Pradesh points out.

“I am from a prominent family, therefore not revealing my identity. Yes, I will vote for Modi. I live in a small district of Uttar Pradesh — Sant Kabir Nagar. This is what I witnessed in past 6 years: Good roads by Modi and Yogi. Better electricity. Better government Hospitals and schools. They are not like private but has (sic) become very good. Infrastructure need to be improved. Work is available in the state. Now people don’t need to go to other states. LPG connection is provided for free and cylinders at subsidized rates.”

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My own extended family members from UP acknowledge that “kaam to kiya hai Yogi ne [there is no doubt Yogi has done work]” even as they criticise his “communal” politics.

But they stop short of admitting that they have either ever voted or intend to vote for the BJP because the wider community sees it as a betrayal. My own hunch is that a lot more Muslims vote for the BJP than is generally assumed.

Moulding opinion

Meanwhile, the BJP, on its part, has ramped up efforts to wean away UP Muslim voters from its political rivals in the country’s most populous and one of the most electorally important states.

These include recruiting high-profile Muslims who can mould opinion in the community. Last year, it nominated the former vice-chancellor of Aligarh Muslim University, Tariq Mansoor, to the Uttar Pradesh Legislative Council, and also made him the party’s national vice-president.

His main job is to reach out to fellow Muslims ahead of the election. Recently, he wrote a long op-ed piece, entitled ‘Six reasons why Muslims should look again at Modi in 2024 polls’, accusing the traditional Muslim leadership of “instilling a fear of the BJP” in the community.

“2024 represents an opportunity for Muslims to move beyond the negativity of the opposition’s politics and choose the pragmatic path of progress and national interest. For this, Modi is their best choice,” he wrote.

Other ‘influencers’ include Firoz Bakht Ahmed, former vice-chancellor of Maulana Azad National University; Najma Akhtar, former vice-chancellor of Jamia Millia; and the party’s assorted Muslim spokespersons.

The party is also said to be busy “installing loyal Muslims to leadership positions in universities as part of a push to garner Muslim votes ahead of national elections”, according to a Reuters investigation, which described it as marking a “new approach of working from within the community”.

It quotes senior Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leader Indresh Kumar as saying that “it is for certain that the BJP will win a much bigger percentage of Muslim votes than the last time”.

The Congress used the same “set-a-Muslim-to-catch-a-Muslim” tactic to great effect. But will it work for the BJP, given their mutual incompatibility, remains to be seen.

A simpler and potentially more productive approach will be to talk to the Muslims directly and offer them a sense of inclusivity and security that the PM spoke about in Dubai. For starters, how about resuming the stalled RSS-Muslim intellectuals dialogue?

Read more from the author here.

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