Christie knifes frenemy... DeSantis's last chance... a Haley comeback... and Trump's secret Tim Scott option: Four days from the Iowa caucus, SCOTT JENNINGS reveals the tantalizing scenarios that will decide GOP race

The duel in Des Moines on Wednesday was far more telling than many would have expected.

But only if one knew where to look.

The real action wasn’t on the CNN debate stage at Sheslow Auditorium in Iowa’s Drake University where Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis were clawing each other’s eyes out.

Neither was the nearby, laughably friendly, Fox News town hall with Donald Trump a source of any great insight, other than Trump remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

But taken together – these competing TV offerings provided a tantalizing roadmap for what we can really expect in the next stage of this Republican primary.

The real action wasn’t on the CNN debate stage at Sheslow Auditorium in Iowa’s Drake University where Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis were clawing each other’s eyes out.

The Fox News town hall with Donald Trump didn’t offer any great insight, other than Trump remains the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Hot Mic Mayhem! Haley rocked before the debate even began…

News of Chris Christie’s shock departure from the race dropped just hours before faceoff. Probably good for Haley, but was the usefulness blunted by his hot mic candor?

‘She’s going to get smoked, you and I both know,’ he grumbled in private comments captured on his campaign’s livestream before a town hall meeting. ‘She’s not up to this.’

The former New Jersey governor did not, as some Haley supporters had hoped, endorse his rival.

Haley desperately needs Christie’s supporters—all of them—to have a fighting chance at topping the ex-president in New Hampshire, just eight days after the Iowa caucus.

‘She’s going to get smoked, you and I both know,’ he grumbled in private comments captured on his campaign’s livestream before a town hall meeting. ‘She’s not up to this.’

But Christie’s message was cuttingly clear: she’s not offering the pure anti-Trump message that I am and that this country needs.

If Christie’s supporters feel the same way, will they gravitate to Haley?

Color me skeptical, especially since Christie’s name remains on the ballot in the first-in-the-nation primary. She will get some, but not all.

GOP dumpster fire: Ron and Nikki at each other’s throats… 

After an opening salvo of furious finger-pointing left the candidates panting and – from my view in the audience – diminished, DeSantis calmed down and steadily won round after round while Haley remained rattled throughout.

On most issues, the Florida governor found a groove squarely in the middle of Republican public opinion.

Haley at times delivered good content (her answer on taking on China, for instance), but her annoying references to her campaign’s ‘DeSantis Lies dot com’ gimmick blew any chance of a more substantive night.

If this debate were an episode of Friends, it would be called: ‘the one where Haley kept repeating that annoying website.’

After an opening salvo of furious finger-pointing left the candidates panting and – from my view in the audience – diminished, DeSantis calmed down and steadily won round after round while Haley remained rattled throughout.

The quip of the night belonged to DeSantis, who hammered the former diplomat on foreign policy: ‘You can take the ambassador out of the UN, but you can’t take the UN out of the ambassador.’

Translation: a globalist can’t be trusted to put America first. On this, DeSantis and Trump are on the same page.

Field of Broken Dreams: It’s Iowa or BUST for the Florida man…

For DeSantis to keep his hopes alive and the primary ball bouncing, he needs a solid second-place finish in Iowa on Monday, something that can be spun as ‘better than expected’.

It’s a longshot according to the polls, but if he pulls it off the feat will be all the more shocking and remarkable.

Haley will live to fight another day no matter what happens in Iowa.

Her expectations there have been lower until lately, when her surge, previously thought to be confined to New Hampshire, spread to Iowa’s metro areas and its suburbs.

For DeSantis to keep his hopes alive and the primary ball bouncing, he needs a solid second-place finish in Iowa on Monday, something that can be spun as ‘better than expected’.

If Haley tops DeSantis in Iowa, it is curtains for him and a boost for her as she heads to her Alamo in The Granite State. The latest polls show this a distinct possibility.

Kiddie gloves for Baby Hands: Trump blasts softballs in Fox News townhall… 

Adoring fans genuflected in Trump’s presence on the Fox News Channel, where he faced questions from the audience.

Quite comically, nearly every single question came from an Iowa voter who said they were voting for him.

Under light-touch questioning, the former president confirmed that he would, indeed, not be a dictator if elected and would be too busy to seek retribution against his political opponents.

The room cheered, approvingly.

Adoring fans genuflected in Trump’s presence on the Fox News Channel, where he faced questions from the audience.

Size (of victory) matters: The Don needs command performance… 

A Trump win in Iowa by 12 or more points will be spun as a historic victory – but anything less than that will be a catastrophe for his campaign.

It woulds appear to Republicans that God can, in fact, bleed.

Trump, however, is so dominant in the Hawkeye State polling, and his campaign’s expectation of a landslide triumph so firm that they are looking ahead to the general election by crushing Biden in TV ads here while ignoring his opponents.

Perhaps Trump’s answer to a question about abortion revealed his extreme confidence more than any other.

In a state with a strong, pro-life influence, Trump told voters that they must accept the ‘Reagan position’ if they want to win national elections, which means excepting rape, incest and life of the mother from all pro-life laws.

He’s right. And a candidate worried about shoring up a wavering evangelical base would never risk alienating them on an issue they hold so dear.

A Trump win in Iowa by 12 or more points will be spun as a historic victory – but anything less than that will be a catastrophe for his campaign.

Tim ‘The Executioner’ Scott: Trump’s secret weapons lurks in South Carolina…

If Haley were to effectively tie or even beat Trump in New Hampshire, you might imagine that she’d have an advantage in South Carolina later in February.

You’d be wrong.

New Hampshire is the best terrain Haley will get anywhere, where moderate GOP voters are the least interested in Trump-style politics.

What’s more, independents not affiliated with either party can vote in the GOP primary, a group Haley hopes to attract.

But after New Hampshire, Haley would face an electoral landscape that’s decidedly pro-Trump, with closed Republican primaries (i.e. no independents) in states where the electorate is more hospitable to the current version of the GOP.

The Palmetto State, where Haley was Governor from 2011 to 2017, is one of the Trumpiest states in America and the polls there show Trump crushing at present.

Somewhere in South Carolina is U.S. Senator Tim Scott, who dropped out of the presidential race and is thought to be a contender to become Trump’s Vice President.

Scott could deliver a felling blow ahead of the South Carolina primary if he sided against his former governor at a critical moment.

Somewhere in South Carolina is U.S. Senator Tim Scott, who dropped out of the presidential race and is thought to be a contender to become Trump’s Vice President.

Prove the pundits wrong: The polls say Trump… what say you?  

Trump’s iron grip on the GOP has lasted for years. Yes, there have been some ebbs, but today he’s closer to a peak and backed by a campaign team running his best effort in three tries for the White House.

Republicans know Trump and think of him as a de facto incumbent. In a primary, to beat an incumbent requires a compelling reason for the party faithful to fire that person.

Have DeSantis or Haley delivered that message? The polling says no.

Now, it’s time for the voters to deliver a definitive answer.