Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, predictions, & props

Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, predictions, & props

The Nuggets will look to put the finishing touches on a great season Monday night as they gear up to play the Heat in Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Denver is one win away from winning their first NBA title in franchise history after defeating Miami 108-95 in Game 4 on Friday night.

After winning Game 3 in dominating fashion, the Nuggets knew that the Heat would not back down on Friday night in front of their home court for potentially the last time this season. However, Denver wasn’t phased and received an incredible performance from veteran power forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon scored a playoff-high 27 points (game-high) on an efficient 11-of-15 shooting from the field and 3-of-4 from deep. He also grabbed seven rebounds and dished out six assists. Denver also got a tremendous outing from Bruce Brown off the bench, who scored 21 points. With Gordon and Brown playing out of their minds, it allowed Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray to take a backseat. Jokic had a double-double consisting of 23 points and 12 rebounds, while Murray had 15 points and 12 assists. Murray has now recorded 10 or more assists in four-straight games and will look to make it five on Monday night.

As for the Heat, Jimmy Butler (25 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists) and Bam Adebayo (20 points and 11 rebounds) had solid performances for the third-straight contest. Miami also got an extra scoring boost from Kevin Love, who scored 12 points (4-6 FG, 3-5 3pt) in 18 minutes. However, the backcourt of Max Strus and Gabe Vincent struggled in the home loss, scoring a combined two points on 1-of-10 from the field and 0-of-7 from three-point range. For the Heat to force a Game 6, they will need Vincent and Strus to play better because the Nuggets are a well-oiled machine on offense.

Will the Heat win their second road game in this series, or will the Nuggets close things out on Monday and walk away as NBA champions? Below, we’ll break down Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals between the Heat and Nuggets, giving our prediction and best player prop bets.

Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5 odds, picks, and predictions

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up

• Spread: Heat +8.5 (-105); Nuggets -8.5 (-115)
• Total: OVER 208.5 (-110); OVER 208.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Heat +310; Nuggets -400

The Nuggets are 8.5-point favorites heading into Game 5 after being short road favorites in Games 3 and 4 in South Beach. Denver suffered its only home playoff loss this postseason in Game 2, where Miami was 8.5-point underdogs. Outside of that defeat, the Nuggets are 9-1 straight up at home and 6-4 against the spread in the NBA playoffs.

However, we should not expect Monday’s game to be a cakewalk, as the Heat know they can compete with the Nuggets. In this year’s NBA playoffs, Miami is 7-5 straight up on the road and 8-4 against the spread. This team doesn’t fear being the underdog and has shown through the postseason they can win on the road.

For the Heat to win on Monday night, they must defend the three-point line better. In Game 3, Miami held Denver to 27.4 percent from deep, which was good enough to win, if they slowed down the Jokic-Murray combo. Fast forward to Friday night, and Miami’s defensive principles went out of the window as the Nuggets shot 50 percent from beyond the arc. It doesn’t matter what Butler and Adebayo do if no one can’t defend the three-point line.

On the other hand, Miami did an exceptional job of winning the battle on the glass and being competitive in fast break points. However, the Heat had 15 turnovers, leading to 17 points for Denver, which is a quick way to lose. If the Heat can defend the three-point line and get better production from Strus-Vincent, they could steal Game 5. We know Butler and Adebayo will show up in a must-win game, but who will show up beside them as the Nos. 3 and 4 scorers? That question remains and will be answered quickly on Monday night.

As for the Nuggets, they are -5000 to win the NBA Finals as they have a commanding 3-1 series lead. Denver did not need their stars to lead the way on Friday night, but Murray and Jokic still made the necessary plays and knocked down timely shots. We should expect Murray and Jokic to come out blazing on Monday night, as they will try to deliver an early knockout blow to the Heat.

In addition to the play of the starting lineup in Games 3 and 4, the bench showed up and provided Denver with an extra surge of offense. Rookie Christian Braun had his breakout game with 15 points and four rebounds in Game 3, while Bruce Brown had 21 points (8-11 FG, 3-5 3pt), four rebounds, and two assists in Game 4. If Brown or Braun can duplicate their performances from Miami on Monday night, the Nuggets will be on their way to an NBA title.

The Heat won’t back down in a win-or-go-home situation, as they are 8-4 ATS this season when the spread was between +7.5 and +10.5. However, the Nuggets have too much firepower when everybody is clicking on all cylinders and has been an excellent team at home. It’s tough to win a closeout game in any sport, but the Nuggets are 3-0 this postseason in closeout games and winning by 3.3 points per game.

Prediction: Nuggets 107, Heat 103. The Heat (+8.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (208.5).

Best BetMGM player prop bet for Heat vs. Nuggets Game 5: Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 rebounds (+100)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up

The easy prop bet for Jimmy Buckets would be to take the OVER on his points on Monday night. However, we will explore his rebounding prop — O/U 6.5 on BetMGM. Butler grabbed seven rebounds in Friday’s loss, which was a noticeable improvement from Games 2 and 3, where he recorded six total rebounds.

The 33-year-old small forward has gone OVER 6.5 rebounds twice in this series, which bodes well heading into a pivotal Game 5. For the Heat to secure the win Monday night, they will need Butler to impact the game in multiple ways. Butler is averaging six rebounds per game and 13 rebound chances in his last six road games.