‘Headed for destructive ambiguity’: Fmr. peace negotiator reacts to Hamas-backed ceasefire deal

I’m sure you’ve been listening to this development as we have been covering it live for our viewers. And just to take a step back and remind our viewers of what the the sticking point, the major disagreement point in this most recent deal appeared to be, And that was whether there would be a permanent end to the fighting or whether there would be a lengthy sustained ceasefire, both Yaya Sinwar and Bibi Netanyahu standing firm. Netanyahu’s point was that this war would not end under Hamas’s terms. Now we see that there appears to be, as we heard from Nick Robertson, maybe a different element added to what they view as an acceptable deal. We have yet to hear from the Israelis. What do you make of this developing news? I mean, I think you’re you’re headed for some, what I would call destructive ambiguity. If if this is going to hinge on a firm Israeli commitment to withdraw their forces from Gaza and agree to a comprehensive ceasefire at the end of three rounds, 3 phases, which is exactly what Hamas wants. And they want assurances from the United States, from the Egyptians. And the extent the Qataris matter when it comes to Israel from Qatar as well, I I think this is going to be a very, very heavy lift which raises the, you know, it’s not for nothing. The Middle East negotiations really only have two speeds, slow and slower. And this negotiation is curious, perversely complicated by the fact that the primary Palestinian decision maker is sitting in a tunnel sconce below Khan Yunus Rafa, or maybe even in a tunnel in Sinai below ground. And Ismail Haniya, the political head of Hamas is making a statements on his behalf. I mean they’re just there are a lot of things we don’t know what what is the Egyptian Qatari ceasefire agreement. How closely does it correspond to the want to the Israeli position that Secretary of State Lincoln in a sense locking himself in to supporting Israel described as extremely generous. Is this a commitment to do a do? The first phase, which is 33 hostages, the women whose position is increasingly fraught, the elderly and the infirm. In exchange for up to 1000 Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are either accused or charged with killing Israelis and the Israelis would redeploy from key areas in Gaza and limit their overflight activities during the period where the hostages are being exchanged for prisoners. All set within a 40 day time frame and then move on to phase two, which would be an indirect negotiation to seek out a more durable period of calm in which all of the hostages would be released in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. I I just think it’s it’s incredibly confusing right now and the fact that the government of Israel has not responded authoritatively or quickly. It it clearly is a concern and it appears that the parameters of whatever deal was on the table just as recently as 24 hours ago appear to be changing in real time. I want to go back to what we heard from reporting from Becky Anderson saying that her sources familiar with the talks told CNN that it’s the three day meeting in Doha between the CIA director and the Qatari Prime Minister that finally convinced Hamas to accept this three-part deal. One would imagine then that the US, if that is true, the US should not be then surprised by whatever is included in this deal. But yet we have yet to hear from the US side on this. That is 100% correct. And Bill Burns, who’s established a very close relationship, CIA director, established a very close relationship with Mossad director David Barnea. If Bill, if Bill Burns is been monitoring, reviewing, presiding over this, then he he is acutely aware of what the Israelis initially agreed to. He’s also acutely aware of what the margin is between what Hamas wants, additional assurances that at least the Egyptians apparently in the Qataris are willing to provide and what the Biden administration is prepared to to do. And he’ll, he’ll presumably be briefing Jake Sullivan, Tony Blinken and the president on where that delta is. If in fact there is a delta, then it comes down to the question of the government of Israel. And to borrow a phrase from one of from my from my one of my former bosses, James Baker, who was a a master of observing what he called the the dead cat on the doorstep strategy. It may well be that Hamas has maneuvered itself into a situation where that dead cat is on the doorstep of Benjamin Netanyahu. And if in fact, the Americans are willing to support the Egyptian and Qatari changes, fixes, assurances, then you could be headed either for some creative ambiguity to iron this all out or a train wreck.