Hopefully East Coasters were able to take advantage of Monday’s calm weather to make any last-minute preparations needed before a potent nor’easter arrives Tuesday.
Winter storm watches and warnings are now in effect across Nova Scotia and Newfoundland as a high-impact nor’easter is expected to hit a good portion of the Atlantic Canada this week.
EXPLAINER: What is a nor’easter, exactly?
Some areas could see anywhere from 10-50 cm of snow, depending on the location, by the time all is said and done.
There will be considerable travel interruptions as rapidly accumulating snow will make commuting difficult over many locations. Visibility will be suddenly reduced to near zero at times in heavy snow and blowing snow.
Budding system gathers steam south of the border
A swath of significant snow associated with the nor’easter is likely across the U.S. Northeast from northern Pennsylvania east through Massachusetts, including the Boston metro area. Travel delays and cancellations are likely throughout the Northeast on Tuesday.
A strong low-pressure system taking this track toward Atlantic Canada also meets the definition of a classic nor’easter, named for the powerful northeasterly winds that hammer coastal communities.
Winter storm watches and warnings issued
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) issued winter storm watches and warnings for Nova Scotia and Newfoundland ahead of the storm’s expected arrival late Tuesday.
By Tuesday morning, the atmospheric pressure is dropping like a rock off the Eastern Seaboard as the low rapidly develops, becoming stronger through the day. This is when snow will develop for New York, Pennsylvania and New England where upwards of 30 cm of snow will fall on Tuesday.
Conditions deteriorate Tuesday afternoon across Nova Scotia. By the evening, the low tracks closer to Sable Island.
With the low tracking south of Nova Scotia, the Maritimes are guaranteed to remain on the cold side of this low, meaning there’s no risk of mixed precipitation.
BEWARE: Towering snow piles could lead to very expensive problems you didn’t see coming
Peak snowfall rates are expected Tuesday evening and overnight, with the heaviest snow done by Wednesday morning. Wind gusts will be a concern for coastal Nova Scotia as the greatest snowfall rates occur, drastically reducing visibility. 50-70 km/h wind gusts are expected Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.
Heavy snowfall, blowing snow and reduced visibility are all hazards with this nor’easter. All this snow is expected just a week after the historic blizzard that buried Cape Breton, making residents wonder where all the snow will go, and when it will melt. There is still 95 cm of snow on the ground across Sydney.
The heaviest snow in the Maritimes will fall in southern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and eastern P.E.I. 20-35 cm of snow is expected for Cape Breton, while 15-25 cm is anticipated for Halifax, Yarmouth, and New Glasgow.
We have a lower confidence forecast for the region circled below, and future forecast amounts could drastically be reduced with subtle track shifts:
Valentine’s Day blizzard possible for Newfoundland
As conditions improve for Nova Scotia, Newfoundland will start to see deteriorating conditioning on Tuesday overnight. The Avalon, Burin and the Connaigre peninsulas will see their peak snowfall rates Wednesday morning and afternoon, with northern and central Newfoundland areas seeing them through the afternoon and lingering into Wednesday overnight.
Snow lingers on Thursday for the northern half of Newfoundland, just adding more snow to the heavy accumulations from Wednesday.
The nor’easter is forecast to reach the deepest low pressure on Wednesday, ~960 hPA, as the centre of the low passes south of the Avalon throughout the day. That means very strong winds and even blizzard conditions are forecast for regions southeast of Gander, including New-Wes-Valley, Clarinville-Bonavista, and the Burin and Avalon peninsulas.
Wind gusts of 70-90 km/h on Wednesday will create near-zero visibility when the most intense snowfall rates of the system occur.
It’s likely the biggest snowfall of the entire season for St. John’s, with the previous high occurring on Jan. 5, 2024 with 23 cm of daily snowfall.
As the low tracks close to the Avalon, some warmer air can move onto the region, bringing the threat of a brief wintry mix. This will slightly limit, albeit still high, snowfall totals compared to Gander. 30-50 cm is possible for the northern half of Newfoundland and along the Trans-Canada Highway.
Make sure to keep checking back to The Weather Network for forecast updates and impact information across the Atlantic provinces.