Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2024: Busts by proven MLB model that predicted Daulton Varsho's difficult season

Apr 21, 2019; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers (11) on deck to bat at Tropicana Field.

With MLB adjusting the rules to place an emphasis on defense and speed, baseball favors younger, athletic players more than ever, and that will make hot-shot Fantasy baseball prospects all the rage ahead of upcoming drafts. However, over-drafting talented young players comes with plenty of risk as well. Adjusting to big-league pitching can be a lengthy process for even the most talented players, with superstars like Mike Trout, Aaron Judge and even Alex Rodriguez struggling during their first taste of the majors.

Avoiding potential 2024 Fantasy baseball busts is a must to make a deep postseason push, so how do you weigh a player’s upside against realistic expectations for prospects like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio and Jackson Holliday? A reliable set of live-updated 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings can help ensure that you’re getting maximum value out of every pick and avoiding players who might not live up to their 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP. Before finalizing your 2024 Fantasy baseball draft prep, be sure to see the 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last season, SportsLine’s Projection Model identified several top Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts, including Blue Jays outfielder Daulton Varsho.

Varsho set new career highs in doubles (23), triples (3), home runs (27), RBI (74) and stolen bases (16) in 2022 and Fantasy baseball managers were predicting he’d take another step forward in 2023, drafting him 73rd overall on average. However, the model saw some holes in his game and predicted him as a 2023 Fantasy baseball bust who wouldn’t live up to his Fantasy baseball ADP.

The result: Varsho’s OPS dropped from .745 to .674 and he also saw drops in home runs (20) and RBI (61), while failing to take advantage of the new baserunning rules (16 steals again). Anybody who followed the model’s advice and avoided Varsho in their Fantasy baseball drafts avoided a major headache.

The SportsLine model is engineered by the same people who powered projections for all three major Fantasy sites. And that same group is sharing its 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings and cheat sheets over at SportsLine, helping you find Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakouts and busts long before your competition. Their cheat sheets, available for leagues on many major sites, are updated multiple times every day.

Any time more MLB news comes out about MLB free agency signings or Fantasy baseball injuries, the team at SportsLine updates its projections. Go to SportsLine now to see these proven Fantasy baseball cheat sheets.

Top 2024 Fantasy baseball busts

One of the Fantasy baseball busts 2024 the model is fading: Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott. A first-round pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Stott debuted in 2022 and slashed .234/.295/.358 with 10 homers, 49 RBI, and 12 stolen bases over 127 games as a rookie. He was clearly more comfortable in his second season, slashing .280/.329/.419 with 15 home runs and 62 RBI. He also took advantage of more baserunner-friendly rules by swiping 31 bags.

However, Stott’s hard-hit contact rate was actually down from 37.2% to 35.3% and his BABIP was 38 points higher in 2023. Meanwhile, the rest of his batted-ball profile looked nearly identical, which is why the model ranks him behind second basemen like Thairo Estrada and Brandon Lowe, both of whom are being drafted over 100 picks later on average.

Another of the 2024 Fantasy baseball busts the model projects won’t live up to their ADP: Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz. Having just turned 22 last month, De La Cruz looks like one of the most exciting prospects in baseball after showing some incredible flashes during his rookie season in 2023. He hit 13 home runs (including four that went over 450 feet), drove in 44 and stole 35 bases over 98 games.

That incredible potential is a big reason why his current 2024 Fantasy baseball ADP is 37.50, but spending a fourth-round pick on a player who just slashed .235/.300/.410 is a big risk unless you’re in a keeper league. A .336 BABIP doesn’t seem to indicate that De La Cruz was particularly unlucky. Even if you’re expecting his overall batted-ball profile to improve, he’s guaranteed to fight swings and misses after being struck out 194 times across AAA and the big leagues. That’s why the model ranks him behind Willy Adames and Carlos Correa, who are being drafted more than 10 rounds later on average. See more busts at SportsLine.

How to find proven 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings

SportsLine’s model is also fading a surprising starting pitcher who is coming off the board in the third round on average in early 2024 Fantasy baseball drafts. The model is predicting this ace suffers a setback and finishes outside the top 15 at his position. Avoiding him until later on could be the difference in winning your league or going home with nothing. You can only see who it is here.

So which 2024 Fantasy busts should you be avoiding in your upcoming drafts? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy baseball rankings for every single position, all from the model that predicted Daulton Varsho’s falloff in 2023, and find out.