Gold prices edged higher after 3 days of fall; silver up Rs 486 a kg

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Gold prices rose by 231 to Rs 46,513 per 10 gram in the Mumbai retail market after three days of straight fall on a softer dollar and safe-haven appeal. The yellow metal traded firm above the support level of $1,760 on risk-averse stance by investors ahead of US FOMC meeting.

The price of 10 gram, 22-carat gold in Mumbai was Rs 42,606 plus 3 percent GST, while 24-carat 10 gram stood at Rs 46,513 plus GST. The 18-carat gold is quoted at Rs 34,885 plus GST in the retail market.

Bullion prices were supported by regulatory crackdown measures by China and fear of possible default by the Evergrande Group.

The physical demand in the domestic market remained tepid as buyers normally avoid purchasing jewellery during the inauspicious period of Pitru Paksha, during this time people perform an annual ritual for their ancestors.

Russia’s gold reserves jumped to 73.8 million troy ounces at the start of September, the value of banks holdings was $132bln. 

The economic calendar for the day is fairly light, except for US housing data.

Gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund were unchanged at 1,001.66 tonnes. The ETF has a market value of $56.59 billion.

The US dollar index traded lower at 93.11, down 0.15 percent against a basket of six rival currencies.

Spot gold moderately rose by $4.94 to $1,769.08 an ounce at 1217 GMT in London trading.

MCX Bulldesk increased by 78 points or 0.57 percent at 13,809 at 17:47. The index tracks the real-time performance of MCX Gold and MCX Silver futures.

“Gold prices traded steady as investors maintained a cautious approach ahead of the Fed policy meeting where we might get some guidance regarding the central bank’s tapering timeline. Fed is likely to provide an outlook on how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rate rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting. Also Worries about the fallout from property developer Evergrande’s solvency issues spooked financial markets and lifted the dollar index, which continues to hover around the one month peak,” said Navneet Damani, VP – Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The broader range on COMEX could be between $1730- 1775 and on the domestic front, prices could hover in the range of Rs 45,870- 46,400.

The gold-silver ratio currently stands at 77.26 to 1, which means 77.26 ounces of silver is required to buy an ounce of gold.

Silver prices advanced by Rs 486 to Rs 60,200 per kg against its closing price on September 20.

In the futures market, the gold rate touched an intraday high of Rs 46,458 and an intraday low of Rs 46,130 on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX). For the October series, the yellow metal touched a low of Rs 45,662 and a high of Rs 50,040. 

Gold futures for October delivery gained Rs 109, or 0.24 percent, to Rs 46,387 per 10 gram in evening trade on a business turnover of 7,592 lots. The same for December rose by Rs 137, or 0.30 percent, to Rs 46,564 on a business turnover of 8,114 lots.

The value of October and December’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,502.10 crore and Rs 173.21 crore, respectively.

Similarly, the Gold Mini contract for October soared Rs 139, or 0.30 percent at Rs 46,436 on a business turnover of 18,947 lots.

Trading Strategy

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities

Gold prices halted decline supported by safe-haven buying on China real estate crisis with fall of giant Evergrande. The two days US FOMC meeting will start today and market players will await any comments from FED officials to gauge FED tapering clues. The weak equity indices may limit the downside in bullion prices for the day. 

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to up with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1,775 and support at $1,750 per ounce. MCX Gold October support lies at Rs 45,900 and resistance at Rs 46,500 per 10 gram.

Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited

Technically, International Gold is trading with marginal positive bias near $1,760 levels. Major support level breakout was witnessed in the previous week and prices fell more than 2 percent in the previous session. MCX Gold October traded in a choppy manner near Rs 46,000 levels. We may expect prices to rise from lower levels in the coming sessions and trade above Rs 46,400 levels.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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