Gold prices climb above Rs 47,500/10 gm on positive global trend, weaker dollar

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Gold prices soared above Rs 47,500 per 10 gram on October 19 tracking firm global trend and feeble dollar. The precious metal is trading above $1,780/oz levels breaching the intraday resistance of $1,770-1,773 levels.

The domestic gold market is shut on account of the Eid Milad un Nabi holiday. The price of 10 gram, 22-carat gold in Mumbai settled yesterday at Rs 43,404 plus 3 percent GST, while 24-carat 10 gram stood at Rs 47,384 plus GST. The 18-carat gold quoted at Rs 35,538 plus GST in the retail market.

Jigar Trivedi, Research Analyst- Commodities Fundamental, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers said, “Stagflation talks are back on the table after two of the world’s largest economies US and China posted weaker than expected Industrial production for September, on Monday. US Inflation, which is already at multi-year highs, is unlikely to fade anytime soon, as a cold winter might send energy prices even higher. The Fed is probably going to announce tapering in the November meeting, but stagflation fears couples with retail demand on account of the festive season might underpin the yellow metal in the near-term. “

Investors believe that if inflation rises faster than projected, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected, and that other central banks will be less aggressive during the tightening cycle.

Gold holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund were unchanged at 980.10 tonnes, the lowest level in 2021. The ETF has a market value of $55.69 billion.

The US dollar index trades lower at 93.66, down 0.30 percent against a basket of six rival currencies. 

Spot gold advanced by $15.08 to $1,780.01 an ounce at 1254 GMT in London trading.

MCX Bulldek increased by 163 points or 1.15 percent to 14,313 at 18:25. The index tracks the real-time performance of MCX Gold and MCX Silver futures.

“Gold continue to inch higher on the back steady move in Dollar and weak US economic data. After higher inflation last week, we witnessed a weak US IIP data supporting prices”, said Navneet Damani, VP – Commodities Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

The spot gold-silver ratio currently stands at 74.20 to 1, which means 74.20 ounces of silver is required to buy an ounce of gold.

Silver prices soared by Rs 1,705 to Rs 64,971 per kg in the evening trade.

In the futures market, the gold rate touched an intraday high of Rs 47,612 and an intraday low of Rs 47,308 on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX). For the December series, the yellow metal touched a low of Rs 45,705 and a high of Rs 48,899.

Gold futures for December delivery gained by Rs 287, or 0.61 percent, at Rs 47,578 per 10 gram in evening trade on a business turnover of 11,881 lots. The same for February rose by Rs 308, or 0.65 percent, to Rs 47,735 on a business turnover of 2,342 lots.

The value of December and February contracts traded so far is Rs 1,461.11 crore and Rs 71.41 crore, respectively.

Similarly, the Gold Mini contract for November edged higher Rs 264, or 0.56 percent at Rs 47,450 on a business turnover of 12,698 lots.

Trading Strategy

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC securities

Gold prices rallied supported by weaker dollar and fall in US bond yields. The fall in equity indices also boosted buying in the yellow metal for the day. The dollar index was trading 0.36% down while 10 years US treasury yields were trading near 1.58% for the day. The rising inflation worries may continue to support gold prices to trade higher for the short term. 

We expect gold prices to trade sideways to up with COMEX spot gold resistance at $1800 and support at $1760 per ounce. MCX Gold December support lies at Rs. 47100 and resistance at Rs.47600 per 10 gram.

Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited

On the domestic front, MCX Gold October resumed on a positive note at Rs 47,410 and is trading with marginal positive bias. We may expect the market to rise in the coming sessions and trade above Rs 47,600.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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