Nikki Haley’s Fate Hinges on Super Tuesday

Nikki Haley has a big decision to make.

The former South Carolina governor, who faces almost certain political humiliation when Republicans in 15 states vote Tuesday, will be confronted with whether to end her quixotic bid to stop Donald Trump from winning the GOP presidential nomination.

The former president can’t quite win enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee on Super Tuesday—the biggest day of balloting so far this year—but he likely will come close.

Haley on Monday was making her potential last stand in Texas—home of the Alamo and one of the states voting Tuesday—before traveling home to South Carolina. She has no events scheduled for Tuesday or beyond.

Her campaign has no future TV or radio ads booked, according to AdImpact, although it is still spending on digital ads and text messaging to turn out the vote Tuesday.

Trump has no campaign events scheduled for Monday and was expected to watch Tuesday’s results from his Mar-a-Lago compound in Florida. The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states lack authority to block presidential candidates, including Trump, from their ballots on the grounds they engaged in rebellion or insurrection against the U.S.

At a stop in suburban Houston, Haley praised the court’s decision. “I’ll defeat Donald Trump fair and square, but I want him on that ballot,” she said.

Haley also noted the GOP’s electoral losses in 2018, 2020 and 2022, while Trump has dominated the party. “How much more losing do we have to do before maybe we realize Donald Trump is the problem?” she asked.

While Trump was focused Monday on the Supreme Court ruling, his campaign posted on X that Tuesday would bring “clear skies with a 100% chance of a DELEGATE AVALANCHE!”

Until Haley challenged Trump for the nomination, she had never lost an election. But that changed this year for a woman once viewed as a rising star in the party. Trump has won nine of 10 contests held in states and territories heading into Super Tuesday, not including his expected win in North Dakota’s caucuses Monday evening. Haley’s only victory came Sunday in the District of Columbia, a heavily Democratic jurisdiction not held in high regard by many Republicans.

“The swamp has claimed their queen,” Trump’s campaign said just after Haley’s victory.

In its statement, Haley’s campaign cast the win as groundbreaking: “Nikki Haley is the first woman to win a Republican primary in United States’ history.”

On Tuesday, Haley could be competitive in some of the more moderate states. She focused on Minnesota, Colorado, Utah, Virginia, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine and Texas. Some of them aren’t particularly moderate, but they award a portion of delegates by congressional district, so she might be able to secure a few in urban or suburban areas.

Haley, who served as Trump’s first United Nations ambassador, also will have to decide whether she wants to endorse Trump if she drops out. That could be a tough decision, given her sharp criticism of him and her claim that her candidacy has revealed his general-election weaknesses.

While arguing the GOP will fail to win the White House and other top races if Trump is the nominee, she has claimed he is unfit for the presidency because of his past actions and advancing age (he is 77, and President Biden is 81). In a Wall Street Journal interview last week, Haley declined to reaffirm an earlier commitment to endorse the eventual Republican nominee.

“What I will tell you is that I have serious concerns about Donald Trump. I have more serious concerns about Joe Biden,” she said, adding that she doesn’t want either to win.

While Trump and his campaign say the primary race is over, the former president continues to bash Haley, even as his aides have encouraged him to focus his firepower on Biden. “Birdbrain is a loser,” he wrote on social media Sunday evening, deploying his Haley nickname.

Trump’s tendency to demean others who don’t agree with him is one reason Haley says she has stayed in the race as long as she has. She has said his personality and some of his policy positions explain his failure to secure roughly 40% of the vote in some of the early state contests, even though he is essentially a Republican incumbent.

“He’s not going to get the 40% by calling them names,” she said at a recent campaign appearance. “He’s not going to get the 40% if he is not willing to change and do something that acknowledges the 40%. And why should the 40% have to cave to him?”

Haley’s campaign on Monday referenced Margaret Thatcher, the former British prime minister known as the “Iron Lady” and who is a Haley role model, as it tried to motivate its Super Tuesday voters.

On Friday, Haley picked up the endorsements of two moderate Republicans, Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. Voters in their states will be among those casting ballots Tuesday.

Her campaign also sent subtle signals it may continue soldiering on. On Monday, it released a “leadership team” of supporters for Louisiana, which doesn’t hold its primary until March 23.

Haley has also continued to fundraise aggressively, with a recent series of high-dollar events for larger donors and a flurry of emails and texts in an effort to boost online contributions. Her online fundraising tends to surge after Trump attacks her.

On Friday, Haley said her campaign had raised $12 million in February. That was down from $16.5 million in January, but still plenty to keep her travel and campaign apparatus afloat if she doesn’t advertise very much. Her campaign said Monday it had raised $1 million in the first few days of March.

Write to John McCormick at [email protected]