Geopolitical tensions could weaken ruble to 77 rubles - experts

Asia's Tech News Daily

Loko-Invest does not rule out that even with a stable market situation, the risk premium may weaken the ruble to 75-77 rubles per dollar in the short term due to geopolitical tensions

MOSCOW, November 22. /TASS/. Geopolitical tensions could weaken the Russian ruble to 77 rubles per dollar or more, according to experts interviewed by TASS.

The dollar continued to grow against the ruble on Monday with the highest values since July 2021.

Experts consider geopolitical tensions to be the most significant factor among the reasons for the current weakening of the ruble, including the tensions in Ukraine, the migration crisis in Belarus, as well as the Karabakh conflict (a new round of escalation and casualties), experts from Loko-Invest noted.

At the same time, Freedom Finance analyst Alexander Osin believes that regulators are using the factor of non-market pressure on demand for risky assets (including sanctions and geopolitical ones) in order to restore demand for low-yield, “quality” assets due to a significant decline in inflation.

Dollar may surpass 77 rubles

Further deterioration of the international politics can undoubtedly push the ruble against the dollar to the level of 75-77 rubles and even more, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments Alexander Bakhtin believes.

Loko-Invest does not rule out that even with a stable market situation, the risk premium may weaken the ruble to 75-77 rubles per dollar in the short term due to geopolitical tensions.

“Everything will depend on how large-scale the potential threats may be in their consequences. So far there is no reason to believe that the geopolitical situation in the near future will only get worse,” Bakhtin added.

Freedom Finance expects the ruble to consolidate over the next month (roughly before the date of the Bank of Russia meeting on December 17, 2021) at around 67-79 rubles per dollar and 78-92 rubles per euro.

According to BCS World of Investments, after the tensions may die down, by the end of the year the dollar may be within 71-75 rubles.

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