General Director of VCBF: Stock market in 2021 will not repeat 2018 scenario

The general director of VCBF said that the P / E of the market is not too cheap, but not too high, temporarily acceptable. Mr. Quang forecasts that the year 2021 will not repeat the scenario as in 2018, but the market will have a more sustainable rise.

At the General Meeting of Investors of VCBF Open Funds, Mr. Vu Quang Dong – General Director of Vietcombank Securities Investment Fund (VCBF) said that the portfolios of open funds are still operating very well and will be good for for the whole year 2021.

After observation and analysis, VCBF’s CEO found that the recovery of international trade, along with cheap money factors and a deeper understanding of individual investors, pushed the stock market to grow faster than expected.

Mr. Quang said that the stock market in 2021 will have risks as well as advantages. The first advantage is that the financial market continues to be stable, inflation may be unexpectedly risky but will remain under the control of the Government, leading to the continued loosening monetary policy.

“One more thing is that the US economy – the economy that is vital to the world – recovers faster than expected. We can see that a number of Vietnamese industries have also recovered quickly, such as apparel and exports.” agricultural products, some basic building materials and industrial production will also recover as public investment takes place around the world, “he added.

After considering political relationships, the CEO said that trade risks, especially risks with the US, will be reduced under the new administration when Vietnam’s geopolitical position is enhanced. This lessens the uncertainties in the financial markets, especially the issue of raising or devaluing the dong.

“Currently, the stock market has risen very well, the P / E of the market is no longer too cheap, but it is not too high, temporarily acceptable. Put in the context that monetary policy is still good and the amount of money of investors. If there is a lot, there is no reason to say that this is an expensive market, investment opportunities on Vietnam’s stock market are still many “, Mr. Quang shared.

The General Director of VCBF also noticed that the trend of shifting global production to Vietnam continued to happen and happened faster when the US-China conflict continued to be tense, with no signs of cooling down. Therefore the Vietnamese economy will benefit in the medium term

“With such an approach, the year 2021 will not repeat the scenario like 2018 – that the market grows beyond then goes low. In 2021 the market will still grow but will not grow as high as the year. 2020. This is a good market for investment asset allocation and we see that this is a market with a more sustainable rise, not as sudden as the previous year, “said Mr. Quang.

Adding to the forecasts, VCBF Investment Director Nguyen Thi Hang Nga said that Vietnam is confident that Vietnam will still be a destination for foreign investors in the long term and that the market upgrade will be earlier than the target of the previous government. 2025. The current market valuation is still cheaper than the one in April 2018 when the VN-Index peaked with a P / E of up to 22 times. P / E forecast for 2021 may be 15-16 times lower than the median of the VN-Index about 16.2 times over the past 5 years.

General Director of VCBF: Stock market in 2021 will not repeat 2018 scenario

Vietnam’s P / E valuation is still lower than many regional countries. Source: VCBF.

At the end of 2020, VCBF manages a total of 3 open-ended funds, including VCBF-BCF Leading Stock Investment Fund (scale of VND 329 billion), VCBF-TBF Strategic Balanced Investment Fund (scale of VND 193 billion), VCBF-FIF Bond Investment Fund (scale of VND 76 billion).

Source: – Translated by

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