GDP noses ahead of pre-COVID-19 levels, but don't pop the champagne yet

#Indian economy, #Q2 GDP data, grew 8.4 percent during July-September

India’s real or inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew 8.4 percent during July-September, swinging sharply to the positive quadrant compared to the previous year’s 7.4 percent fall. However, the big question still remains: Is this strong enough to fully offset the COVID-19 shock?

As the winter sets in, anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a spring in the step of the Indian economy.

How do you spot an economic revival? One of the surest signals can be found in shopping malls, or neighbourhood shopping complexes. The footfalls are back. Consumers are back at shops. Consumption spending, the strongest edifice of the India growth story, appears to have regained its mojo.

Household spending, or so the rush at malls, and the shopping arcades suggest, seems to be powering revival in the broader economy, and helping India regain its lost status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Daily COVID-19 cases have remained within manageable limits for the last several weeks, although we cannot afford to let our guard down, given the looming risks that Omicron — COVID-19’s new ‘variant of concern’ is posing.

The pace of vaccination is the key arsenal to decisively win humanity’s biggest war in the 21st century.

These are extremely early days in the revival journey, but the national income data the National Statistical Office (NSO) released on November 30, do carry pieces of data that show the economy may have turned the bend for the better.

The GDP for July-September in 2021 at constant 2011-12 prices stood at Rs 35,73,451 crore, which was 0.3 percent higher than Rs 35,61,530 crore in 2019-20.

This is a big leap compared to the first quarter (April-June), when real GDP grew 20.1 percent compared to 2020-21, but was still 9 percent lower than 2019-20 GDP levels of the same quarter.

To assess how far the economy has recovered from the piling rubble of COVID-19’s devastation, it will be more prudent to compare the current year’s metrics with that of 2019-20, the immediate pre-COVID-19 year.

The latest set of data shows the broader economy appears to have covered considerable ground in July-September 2021, with real GDP levels managing to keep its nose ahead of 2019-20.

In many ways, the comparison with 2020-21 can be fallacious, and misleading, because it was a washout year, given the debilitating consequences of the global pandemic.

The gross value added (GVA), which is GDP minus taxes, and is often considered a better proxy to measure economic activity, for the manufacturing sector grew 5.5 percent during July-September 2021 compared to a contraction of 1.5 percent in the same quarter last year.

There is an optimistic piece of data hiding in the details. The manufacturing sector, which accounts for about 17 percent of India’s GDP, grew 3.9 percent in the second quarter this year, compared to the same period in 2019-20.

Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), a gauge to measure household spending, also appears to be inching towards 2019-20 levels. The PFCE during July-September (at 2011-12 prices) stood at Rs 19,48,346 crore, which was nearly 9 percent higher than the same quarter in the previous year, but 3.5 percent lower than the levels of July-September 2019-20.

A big part of the turnaround is also attributable to government spending, with the GVA in public administration, defence and other services growing 17.4 percent this year during the quarter over the same period in the previous year, and 6.6 percent higher than the pre-COVID-19 year of 2019-20.

Investment also appears to have gathered pace. The gross fixed capital formation (at 2011-12 prices) grew 11 percent in July-September this year over the same quarter last year, and was 2 percent greater than the same period of 2019-20.

All these are bullish pointers. The challenge is to sustain this. The economy has managed to just nose ahead of pre-COVID-19 levels. The challenge is to move onto a faster lane for several quarters at a stretch.

News Related

OTHER NEWS

Datamatics Glob Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 300.77 crore, down 0.75% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Datamatics Global Services are: Net Sales at Rs 300.77 crore in December 2021 down 0.75% from Rs. 303.06 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit ... Read more »

Polycab Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 3,372.00 crore, up 20.48% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Polycab India are: Net Sales at Rs 3,372.00 crore in December 2021 up 20.48% from Rs. 2,798.83 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Vakrangee Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 208.67 crore, up 180.61% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Vakrangee are: Net Sales at Rs 208.67 crore in December 2021 up 180.61% from Rs. 74.36 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at Rs. ... Read more »

Rattan Power Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 804.79 crore, up 164.86% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for RattanIndia Power are: Net Sales at Rs 804.79 crore in December 2021 up 164.86% from Rs. 303.86 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Loss at ... Read more »

IDBI Div 95 Consolidated December 2021 Net Interest Income (NII) at Rs 2,389.07 crore, up 31.54% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for IDBI Div I NIT 95 are: Net Interest Income (NII) at Rs 2,389.07 crore in December 2021 up 31.54% from Rs. 1816.29 crore in December ... Read more »

Max Ventures an Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 38.22 crore, down 87.09% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Max Ventures and Industries are: Net Sales at Rs 38.22 crore in December 2021 down 87.09% from Rs. 296.09 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net ... Read more »

20 Microns Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 161.25 crore, up 7.68% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for 20 Microns are: Net Sales at Rs 161.25 crore in December 2021 up 7.68% from Rs. 149.75 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Datamatics Glob Standalone December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 149.40 crore, up 31.56% Y-o-Y

Reported Standalone quarterly numbers for Datamatics Global Services are: Net Sales at Rs 149.40 crore in December 2021 up 31.56% from Rs. 113.56 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit ... Read more »

Wendt Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 41.22 crore, up 15.24% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Wendt (India) are: Net Sales at Rs 41.22 crore in December 2021 up 15.24% from Rs. 35.77 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Kabra Extrusion Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 105.36 crore, up 69.93% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Kabra Extrusion Technik are: Net Sales at Rs 105.36 crore in December 2021 up 69.93% from Rs. 62.00 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit ... Read more »

Inventure Grow Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 13.24 crore, up 68.88% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Inventure Growth and Securities are: Net Sales at Rs 13.24 crore in December 2021 up 68.88% from Rs. 7.84 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net ... Read more »

Delhi HC lists for April 20 PIL on issue of Prime Minister's security

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was stuck on a flyover for almost 20 minutes on his way to Punjab to attend an event on January 5 after protesters blocked his way. ... Read more »

Cybertech Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 35.57 crore, up 17.56% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Cybertech Systems and Software are: Net Sales at Rs 35.57 crore in December 2021 up 17.56% from Rs. 30.25 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net ... Read more »

Havells India Standalone December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 3,652.25 crore, up 15.36% Y-o-Y

Reported Standalone quarterly numbers for Havells India are: Net Sales at Rs 3,652.25 crore in December 2021 up 15.36% from Rs. 3,165.85 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

SHAREINDIA Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 201.00 crore, up 81.16% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for SHAREINDIA are: Net Sales at Rs 201.00 crore in December 2021 up 81.16% from Rs. 110.95 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at Rs. ... Read more »

Elixir Cap Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 1.00 crore, down 86.05% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Elixir Capital are: Net Sales at Rs 1.00 crore in December 2021 down 86.05% from Rs. 7.19 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

California Soft Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 4.00 crore, up 900% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for California Software are: Net Sales at Rs 4.00 crore in December 2021 up 900% from Rs. 0.40 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Lyka Labs Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 35.57 crore, up 32.67% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Lyka Labs are: Net Sales at Rs 35.57 crore in December 2021 up 32.67% from Rs. 26.81 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Delhi Metro will curtail services on Republic Day

Delhi-Metro Delhi Metro services on Line 2 between HUDA City Centre and Samaypur Badli will be curtailed on January 26 on account of the security arrangements for the Republic Day ... Read more »

Gland Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 1,063.33 crore, up 23.73% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Gland Pharma are: Net Sales at Rs 1,063.33 crore in December 2021 up 23.73% from Rs. 859.42 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit at ... Read more »

Sphere Global Consolidated December 2021 Net Sales at Rs 1.26 crore, down 35.25% Y-o-Y

Reported Consolidated quarterly numbers for Adroit Infotech Limited are: Net Sales at Rs 1.26 crore in December 2021 down 35.25% from Rs. 1.94 crore in December 2020. Quarterly Net Profit ... Read more »

Anand Mahindra, ex film student, may just take up Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister's offer

Anand Mahindra had revealed in a tweet on January 20 that he wanted to be a filmmaker and studied the subject in college.  After industrialist Anand Mahindra revealed last week ... Read more »

Real estate market sentiment up in December quarter but Omicron concerns linger

Sentiment Index Score for real estate touched a record 65 for the fourth quarter of 2021, topping the previous high of 63 in the third quarter, noted a report called Knight Frank-FICCI-NAREDCO Real ... Read more »

New airbag rule: What it means for automobile customers

Airbags: Saving lives Union Minister of Road Transport and Highways Nitin Gadkari recently has taken forward his proposal of making six airbags mandatory for all eight-seater vehicles. Gadkari had recently ... Read more »

Domestic car sales drop 4.2% in 2021, seen higher this year

FILE PHOTO: Models pose beside a Nissan Kicks E-Power electric vehicle car at the Thailand International Motor Expo 2021 in Bangkok on Dec 2, 2021. (AFP) Domestic car sales fell ... Read more »

PM Modi interacts with Pradhan Mantri Rashtriya Bal Puraskar recipients

PM Narendra Modi (File image) Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday virtually interacted with the winners of the Pradhan Mantri Rashtriya Bal Puraskar and awarded them certificates digitally using block ... Read more »

Market nosedives for fifth straight session, investors lose over Rs 17.5 trillion: 5 reasons why

The Indian market’s downward spiral continued for the fifth consecutive session on January 24, with the benchmark indices trading almost 2 percent down each at mid-day. The five days of ... Read more »

Moneycontrol PRO & Espresso present Nifty Banker 2.0 on Monday, 24th January, at 8 pm, with Prashant Mullick on “A Nifty Mean Reversion Story”

Prashant Mullick | PC-MoneyControl Nifty Banker 2.0 is India’s First Retail Index Traders Online Conferences to be organised in India. Some of the best index traders in India will share ... Read more »

HUL Q3: Discretionary, out-of-home products grow at pre-COVID levels

Even as Hindustan Unilever Limited (HUL) battles inflationary headwinds and a slowdown in rural India, the company’s discretionary and out-of-home portfolio, which consists of products ranging from ice cream to ... Read more »

RBI to conduct overnight VRR auction of Rs 75,000 crore on January 24

Representative image The Reserve Bank of India on Monday said it will be conducting an overnight variable rate repo auction under liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) for an amount of Rs ... Read more »

Here are the reasons why Netflix hasn't been able to crack the Indian streaming market

Representative image. India has been a tough market for US streaming giant Netflix to crack, a fact Chief Executive Officer Reed Hastings made amply clear in his fourth-quarter earnings call ... Read more »

Pepsi rolls out its first-ever donut in collaboration with Randy's

Photo by: Pepsi Press Release Pepsi Cola announced the release of its first-ever donut in partnership with Randy's. This new treat from the soft drink manufacturer will be available for ... Read more »

Tata Technologies plans to hire 3,000 innovators in next 12 months

Source: ShutterStock Global engineering and product development digital services firm Tata Technologies on Monday said it will hire over 3,000 innovators over the next 12 months under its expanded talent ... Read more »

Sri Lanka hopeful of obtaining further Indian aid of $1.5 billion: Foreign Minister

Representative Image The Sri Lankan government has said that there is a possibility of it obtaining a further USD 1.5 billion in aid from India, weeks after New Delhi announced ... Read more »

Explainer: Why is PTC India Financial Services under the scanner for corporate governance?

PTC India Financial Services (PFS) has been taking heat for lapses in corporate governance and compliance after three of its independent directors quit last week. The Securities and Exchange Board ... Read more »

An entrepreneur shares tips on investing in NFTs for beginners

An NFT is a special type of cryptographic token which represents something unique (Image Source: Shutterstock) Non-fungible tokens – NFTs – are becoming ubiquitous even as many people may still ... Read more »

Philips expects sales to recover from supply chain woes after the summer

Dutch health technology company Philips said on Monday it expects sales to recover strongly in the second half of the year, while a steep decline due to global shortages of ... Read more »

GM reportedly investing $6.5B and creating 4,000 new jobs at Michigan plants

Photo by: Elishia Jayye/Unsplash General Motors is reportedly set to make an announcement, and it is about a major investment and incentive package that the state board is expected to ... Read more »

BJP trying to take credit for works started by BSP govt: Mayawati

Mayawati BSP president Mayawati on Monday said the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh is trying to take credit for works started by her when she was chief minister. She also ... Read more »

RBI to conduct variable rate repo auction under LAF today

The Reserve Bank of India will conduct a variable rate repo auction on January 24 for a notified amount of Rs75,000 crore, the central bank said in a release. The ... Read more »
On free-english-test.com you will find lots of free English exam practice materials to help you improve your English skills: grammar, listening, reading, writing, ielts, toeic