Volodymyr Zelensky faces 'defeat by end of 2024' as Western war chests 'depleted'
Zelensky has been warned of defeat this year
Ukraine has been warned that Volodymyr Zelensky’s government could face defeat by the end of 2024 as Kyiv runs low on ammunition. After Russia’s invasion began in 2022, the picture soon became an optimistic one for Ukraine as they successfully defended Kyiv and pushed Moscow’s forces back to the east and south.
But in Russia’s 2024 offensive, Vladimir Putin’s troops have started to make gains, including the takeover of Avdiivka after months of fighting there.
Western military aid is still to make its way to Ukraine as Republican Party lawmakers in the US block support for Kyiv. In February, various experts made predictions on how the war could unfold in 2024.
Sky News’ International Affairs Editor, Dominic Waghorn, warned that Zelensky’s government faces defeat by the end of 2024 if more support does not make its way to Ukraine.
He said: “If the West chooses not to step up its support to counter the might of Russia’s war economy and the support of its allies, a tipping point is likely to be reached towards the end of the year when the defeat of the Kyiv government might start looking feasible.
Ukrainian troops are running low on ammunition
“The West may then learn how sincere Vladimir Putin is when he insists he will not attack NATO countries next, with all that could entail for global security.”
Security and conflict expert Dr Huseyn Aliyev also told Sky that Ukraine is likely to lose the all of the Donbas.
He said: “As things stand, Ukraine is highly dependent on foreign supplies of ammunition and weapons as two years into the conflict domestic mass production of ammunition is still lagging behind, even when it comes to basic munitions, such as landmines or mortar rounds.
“All procrastinations on Ukraine’s part are likely to lead to more serious territorial losses.
“Unless Ukraine engages in construction of defence fortified positions and ramps up domestic production of ammunition, as well as improves mobilization and recruitment, it is likely to lose the rest of Donbas region this year as well as some territories in the south.”
Russian soldiers invaded Ukraine in 2022
But other experts also highlighted the challenges facing Russia.
Former senior military intelligence and security officer Philip Ingram pointed out that the Russians have suffered big losses in the war while also relying on the likes of Iran and North Korea for weapons.
He said: “Russia is relying on North Korea and Iran, that does not bode well; the Western defence industrial base, its ammunition manufacturers are finally waking up.
“These combined with resurgent Western supplies will allow Ukraine to regain a multidimensional initiative.”
He added: “We will be talking about the Russia-Ukraine war in another 730 days, I believe.
“However, in another 730 days Russia will be significantly weakened, it simply can’t afford much more, whereas in the West, affordability is merely a political decision as the price for Ukraine losing is significantly greater.”