Ex-envoy TCA Raghavan: ‘The military can no longer order Pakistan politics in the way it likes’
Ex-envoy TCA Raghavan: ‘The military can no longer order Pakistan politics in the way it likes’
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan TCA Raghavan on the the implications of the Shehbaz Sharif-led government in Pakistan, the possibility of India re-engaging with it and the future of Imran Khan. The session was moderated by Diplomatic Editor Shubhajit Roy
On the fallout of the Pakistan elections
I think the principal takeaway from this election is contradictory. While on the one hand, the Pakistan military still plays a dominant role in that nation’s polity, what is clear is that the military can no longer order Pakistan politics in the way it likes. The election result and Imran Khan’s surprisingly strong showing demonstrated that.
It’s true that whatever happens in Pakistan will be decided by what the Pakistan military wants but only up to a point. The second takeaway is equally surprising because who could have thought that Imran Khan, who was in many ways the front which the army had created for a hybrid type of administration, would suddenly become public enemy number one. The old public enemies, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif (PML-N), would be partners of the military in a de facto concert to run the country. No matter how weak or constrained it is by the military, politics has an autonomous position in the country.
On the fragility of the PPP-PML coalition
This was not the first time that the PPP and the PML-N acted in concert. They did the same in 2007-08 to give the last push to the tottering Musharraf regime and in 2014 to beat the military-led attempt to cut the civilian government led by Nawaz Sharif down to size. It is surprising that they are in a coalition with the military, because both parties have an anti-military, anti-establishment narrative at their core.
It’s also a difficult time for Pakistan and everyone realises that for whoever forms the government, it’s a totally pointless job in terms of the kind of public popularity they are going to lose because of the economic downturn.
For some time, they may stay together because both parties know that unless they put up a minimal united front, the economy will go down. Negotiations with the IMF will become difficult and they will face the onslaught of public criticism for mismanagement. The Army will work hard at keeping them together. However, the general impression in Pakistan is that this coalition is not going to last beyond two years, after which new contradictions will emerge.
On Sharif family’s plan
Nawaz Sharif will play the role of a senior family advisor. The PML-N’s performance in the elections was less than optimal. It’s something which he has taken personally. Maryam is being groomed as he feels that she is Nawaz’s political heir, rather than his sons, since she’s always had a political flair. It’s also part of the larger family arrangement that she, for some time, is CM of Punjab, possibly because she didn’t have the administrative experience and there would have been too much criticism if she had immediately been made PM. Shehbaz Sharif likes getting things done on the ground. He’s very good at putting up infrastructure projects. One must also realise that he has a strong sense of loyalty to his brother. For years, the military has tried to detach the two. They see Shehbaz is not instinctively anti-military in the way Nawaz often was in the past. In the last 20 years, the PML-N has not split, despite all the pressures put on it.
On the challenge to the authority of Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir
Despite all the efforts of the military, Imran Khan was able to demonstrate that he has a huge public and political following, which has made a major dent on the military’s prestige and on its perceived capacity to order Pakistan. That may reflect on General Asim Munir because, after all, he is the chief and this happened under his watch.
There will be views in the military establishment that they shouldn’t take their differences with Khan too far. It is better to have a working relationship with all elements of the political spectrum because that is how the military can ensure that it plays a dominant role. The interesting thing about Pakistan politics is that the future of civilian politicians never faces a closure. Nawaz Sharif has been down and out and come back on top at least on three occasions. I don’t think anyone in his right senses should rule out Imran Khan. The fact is that he has a tremendous political and popular following, a certain charismatic appeal, and if he survives, I’m pretty sure he has a strong political position.
On the economic crisis in Pakistan
Every four or five years, there is an economic crisis of this kind, essentially because Pakistan spends more money than it generates. It has a narrow taxation base. It imports more than it exports. There is not enough investment or production because of its poor internal security. Structurally, it is a crisis-prone economy.
This particular crisis was unique in that until recently, Pakistan played an important geopolitical role with regard to Afghanistan for the US. In 2022-23, Pakistan suddenly discovered it had no geopolitical leverage.The world had suddenly become disinterested, primarily because of what was happening in Ukraine, the pandemic and so on. It now has to undertake difficult negotiations with the IMF and execute major structural changes, which are very difficult for this kind of coalition, and which, frankly, many Pakistanis don’t want to do. It’s not easy because the economic model in Pakistan is based on patronage, favours and the government wanting to run things in a particular way.
On the Indian government’s view
Our main focus has been on the counter-terrorism front and on stabilisation along the line of control. There’s no real political dialogue with Pakistan. There are no high commissioners in place. Diplomatic relations have been downgraded. How long will this impasse continue? This particular dilemma is not a new one. There is an element of risk when you engage but it is important we look at Pakistan as part of our overall foreign policy.
You have a brittle stability with Pakistan, with a virtual zero relationship. You have a bad situation with China all along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and a less-than-optimal political and diplomatic relationship. We have a very bad situation with Myanmar developing in our northeastern border because of the internal erosion in the Myanmar state.
Therefore, many would argue that it is in your national interest that you try to stabilise your relationship. The initiative to engage has always come from India. If you wait for Pakistan to take an initiative, in a sense, you’ll be waiting forever because Pakistan’s space to manoeuvre is much more limited.
Audience Questions
On Kashmir in India-Pak ties
Pakistan has a sense of entitlement about Kashmir and that is the dominant narrative within its politics. For India, J&K is an integral part of the country. You cannot reconcile these two positions. What you can try to do, and this is where diplomacy comes in, is finding some kind of a stopgap arrangement. It may stop working after some time and then you have to work on it again to improve that situation. Differences of this kind exist between countries all over the world. You have to manage these differences.
On US-China-Pak relations
In US-Pakistan relations, there was always an undercurrent of mistrust for the last 15 years. Apart from its Afghanistan experience, the US currently has other issues to deal with in West Asia and Europe. The China-Pakistan relationship is a relationship of great strategic value to both countries and will remain so. The Chinese have also realised that doing business in Pakistan is not as easy as they thought. Nevertheless, the overall political and military relationship is very strong.
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