There are several factors which affect the inflation, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov noted
MOSCOW, September 23. /TASS/. The Economic Development and Trade Ministry sees the risks of inflation rise higher than 5.8-6% in 2021, head of the ministry Maxim Reshetnikov told reporters.
“As for inflation: we have 5.8% in the baseline forecast, and 6% in the conservative one. This is slightly higher than the lower estimate given by the Bank of Russia in the guidelines for monetary policy – they give the range of 5.7-6.2%. My colleagues and I often discuss this, rely, among other things, on their assessments. At the same time, we see that there are risks that make it possible for inflation to go beyond this range,” Reshetnikov said.
The minister noted that there are several factors which affect the inflation. Since August, inflation has been influenced by social payments. “You know that 200 billion rubles was paid in August, and about 500 billion rubles – in September. In total, this is about 15% of average monthly consumer spending,” he said.
Reshetnikov added that there has been a 10% surge in spending, an increase in turnover in the consumer market.
“At the same time, the reaction of prices in both cases was rather restrained, but nevertheless, it had a certain influence,” he said.
Situation on agricultural markets
The minister also noted that the situation with the harvest can exert additional pressure on inflation.
“The Agriculture Ministry says that the harvest is not bad. But the timing of its delivery on the markets is quite influential, especially for fruits and vegetables, the prices of which have increased significantly over the previous season and are in no hurry to return to their normal levels,” Reshetnikov said. He noted that the Agriculture Ministry of Russia positively assesses the situation with the supply of crops to the markets.
“Finally, we proceed from the fact that the Central Bank has been making decisions to tighten monetary policy throughout the year. We expect this to begin to affect demand. We assume that the regulator will continue to take measures to keep inflation at the target level,” the minister added.