Donald Trump's Six Reasons to Be Hopeful in Indictment Case

Former President Donald Trump greets supporters at a Team Trump volunteer leadership training event held at the Grimes Community Complex on June 01, 2023 in Grimes, Iowa.

Donald Trump may have been indicted for a second time, but the latest case of mishandling classified documents could present the former president with a home turf advantage, as well as some other benefits.

In the 37-count indictment, Trump is accused of keeping files at his Mar-a-Lago Florida estate, including U.S. nuclear secrets and military plans, and of then trying to obstruct the subsequent investigation.

The 49-page indictment included a transcription of an audio recording of Trump discussing in July 2021 “a highly confidential record” with a writer, publisher and two members of his staff at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Former prosecutor Joyce Vance described the tape as “smoking gun” evidence against Trump, who has denied wrongdoing. However, there are six factors in the case that the former president has in his favor:

The Florida Factor

Trump’s first court appearance in the case will be in Miami, Florida, on Tuesday, and the location could play into his hands.

Federal jurors in the Sunshine State have a track record of acquitting elected officials facing federal accusations of wrongdoing.

Last month, a federal jury in Tallahassee acquitted Democratic former gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum of lying to the FBI with prosecutors eventually seeking to dismiss the indictment.

Rob Mandell, a criminal defense attorney based in central Florida, told Politico that regarding elected officials, the pool of jurors is comprised of those sympathetic to the GOP. “We’re a red state and you’re getting red jurors,” he told the outlet, “and they can’t see past red.”

Gaetz Probe Dropped

“Good luck finding a Trump supporter finding Trump guilty,” added Mandell, whose firm represented one of the defendants connected to the Department of Justice’s (DOJ) probe into Florida GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz, which closed in February with a decision not to bring charges against the congressman.

The probe, which began in late 2020, centered around whether he had a sexual relationship with a girl who was 17 years old at the time, and whether he violated laws by paying for her to travel with him. Gaetz repeatedly denied having sex with anyone under age.

The case involving someone with close links to Trump, could be a good omen for the former president.

Judge’s Prior Favorable Ruling

Initially presiding over the case is Judge Aileen Cannon who was appointed to the federal bench by the former president three years ago. Her name was listed on the summons announcing Trump’s indictment, indicating she will be in charge of the timing and progression of hearings.

While there is no certainty that she will remain on the case, she gave him a favorable ruling at a hearing last year in an earlier phase of the case involving a trove of classified material at Mar-a-Lago.

She can rule on which evidence is admissible, slow down or speed up proceedings, and even decide on the legal viability of the Justice Department’s case, The Guardian reported.

However, Tuesday’s hearing is expected to be held in front of magistrate judge Bruce Reinhart, who signed the original warrant authorizing an FBI search of Mar-a-Lago.

Popularity Unswayed by Legal Woes

Trump’s widely quoted remark in 2016 that he could shoot somebody in the middle of New York’s 5th Avenue and “I wouldn’t lose any voters” was a boast about the invulnerability of his base support to being dented.

No shots have since rung out but Trump frames his mounting legal cases as establishment persecution and he remains the frontrunner for the GOP nomination for the 2024 presidential election.

After a New York City prosecutor brought charges of falsifying business records against him in March, Trump nearly doubled his lead in the race for his party’s 2024 nomination, according to an aggregation of national polls of Republican voters by the website fivethirtyeight. Trump pleaded not guilty to those charges.

As of Saturday, he had 53.8 percent support, compared with nearest rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was on 21.3 percent.

Two thirds of Trump voters polled by USA Today/Suffolk, in April said that the former president’s legal situation did not make a difference, while more than a quarter (27 percent) said it would make them more likely to support him.

Cautious Support From Ron DeSantis

DeSantis may have been repeatedly sparring with the former president on the campaign trail, but the Florida governor did take a swipe at the DOJ over the indictment.

“Why so zealous in pursuing Trump yet so passive about Hillary (Clinton) or Hunter (Biden)?” DeSantis tweeted, referring to previous investigations of key figures associated with the Democrats.

The comment was widely seen as showing the limits of his challenge to the former president and his desire not to alienate his base. DeSantis added that if elected, his administration would bring “accountability to the DOJ, excise political bias and end weaponization once and for all.”

A Trump 2024 Win Could Make Case Disappear

If Trump’s 2024 campaign is successful, his return to the White House could provide him with the ace that can make the whole case disappear, according to one legal expert.

Robert Ray, an attorney for Donald Trump during his first impeachment trial, said if Trump were to win the presidency in 2024, any charges or indictments made against the former president by the Department of Justice would be “gone.”

“First of all he would control the Justice Department, so if you are talking about this case, if it’s still pending, he just dismisses the case,” Ray told CNN.

He said there is a debate over whether he could pardon himself, but as president, “If it’s a pending case, he just withdraws the authority of the United States behind the prosecution.”

“He has the absolute right to do that,” he added.

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