Despite the state of the Gaza Strip Hamas is certain that they are still winning the war

Hamas continues to dictate the next stage of the Gaza war, both in its own view and in how it holds the world hostage by not agreeing to a hostage deal.

After Hamas violated the first hostage deal in December, it gambled that Israel would not keep up the military pressure on its terrorists in Gaza. Hamas now believes it has been proven correct. It thinks it can basically outlast Israel in Gaza.

On April 30, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad were both quoted in the pro-Iran al-Mayadeen media describing their continued attacks on Israel in Gaza. For instance, terrorists fired rockets at Sderot at the end of Passover, just before sunset on April 29. In addition, rockets were fired toward Ashdod, landing in the sea.

The goal of Hamas and other Iranian-backed groups in Gaza is to keep up the pressure on Israel. This is carried out through rocket attacks that have been much reduced since the volleys of thousands in October but continue to pose a threat. The terror groups also understand that firing one rocket at Sderot, is basically the same as firing a dozen, if the goal is to get people in the city to have to seek shelter due to sirens.

The goal is to continue to harass the Israeli border communities to remind them that Hamas is still active. Hamas knows that this kind of low-level rocket fire and other threats to the border communities make life there unsettling. For instance, it is clear that Hamas and other terror groups purposely escalate over Jewish holidays and on Shabbat with rocket fire and other threats.

Hamas is proud of the fact that after almost seven months of war, it continues to have rocket fire capabilities and also that it can continue to carry out attacks across the Gaza Strip. Hamas has returned to much of Gaza because IDF forces left areas they were operating in, enabling Hamas to return. While terrorist infrastructure, such as tunnels were removed, Hams gunmen continue to operate.

Gaza attacks on IDF corridor

IDF SOLDIERS operate near what the military described as a Hamas command tunnel running partly under UNRWA headquarters, in the Gaza Strip, in February. In spite of the remarkable achievements of the IDF in Gaza, the war lingers on with no clear end in sight, the writer laments. (credit: DYLAN MARTINEZ/REUTERS)

IDF SOLDIERS operate near what the military described as a Hamas command tunnel running partly under UNRWA headquarters, in the Gaza Strip, in February. In spite of the remarkable achievements of the IDF in Gaza, the war lingers on with no clear end in sight, the writer laments. (credit: DYLAN MARTINEZ/REUTERS)

For instance, a new report at Al-Mayadeen said Hamas has claimed several attacks in central Gaza. Hamas and other groups are seeking to attack IDF soldiers in the Netzerim corridor, a corridor the IDF established across Gaza that links the coast of Gaza to Israeli communities near Beeri and Nahal Oz. This enables the IDF to operate freely in central Gaza. The corridor is also supposed to facilitate aid entering Gaza from a maritime corridor.

However, the terrorists have other ideas. They want to target the corridor and the maritime corridor. The recent report says terrorists targeted Mughraqa, an area north of Nuseirat camp. The terrorists of PIJ also operate in Maghazai camp, where they claim to down a quadcopter drone. In addition, Hamas claims it targeted the Netzerim corridor with mortar shells.

Overall, the picture is clear. The Palestinian terror groups want to create the conditions for a low-level, low-intensity insurgency in Gaza. The Hamas battalions have been dispersed and gone to the ground. Israel has claimed it defeated around 18 of the Hamas battalions, and only six remain; two of them in central Gaza and four in Rafah.

However, this is pre-October six thinking because Hamas has changed its tactics. Hamas is also likely replacing its terrorists that were lost in the fighting over almost seven months.

This means that even if Hamas lost up to 20,000 of its terrorists, either as killed or wounded, it can replace some of them. The group is illustrating its staying power. It had already gone through several rounds of rebuilding its networks, as it did in Shifa Hospital between January and March when up to 1,000 of its terrorists were found there. It has also sought to return to Shati, Zaytoun, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahia, and other areas in northern Gaza.

Now, the IDF has replaced the Nahal brigade in Netzerim with the 99th division, including the multi-dimensional unit that fought in Jabalya and central Gaza in the early part of the war. Hamas knows it is up against two recently deployed brigades holding the corridor. These include the 2nd Carmeli Brigade of infantry and the 679th Yiftah Reserve Armored Brigade.

The IDF announced the deaths of two soldiers on April 29. Hamas is shifting focus to targeting the corridor and appears to be wondering about the IDF’s next moves in Gaza. Hamas knows that the IDF has postponed a Rafah offensive since March due to international pressure. It hopes to keep their pressure on Israel up and to keep drawing out the hostage talks, forcing the US, Israel and others to keep waiting.

Hamas also recently released two videos of US-Israeli hostages it is holding. A recent video showed Omri Miran and Keith Siegel. Siegel is a US citizen. It also recently released a video of Israeli-American hostage Hersh Goldberg-Polin. This is designed to pressure the US and to get the US to pressure Israel.