Deepwater's Gene Munster shares his bull case for Tesla

But our next guest sees today’s news is a test of investor patience, managing partner of Deepwater Asset Management and Fast money Friend Gene Munster joins us now. And Gene, you personally are amongst those legions of investors whose patience will be tested. So what are you waiting for? Indeed, Melissa? First, I am bracing as someone who’s been supportive of what Tesla’s doing and optimistic about where this company can go. I was just stunned today. I think that this caught me off guard. I was expecting it basically to be flat. Deliveries is down 9%. And the first question I asked 1st order of business is how bad is it going to get? The the panel’s done a great job of articulating there’s going to be more negativity. I just want to put that into context. Is that going into today, this tree was looking for about 15% delivery growth in 2024. If you look at the numbers they just reported and assume that they can grow deliveries 10% sequentially for the rest of the year, deliveries will be down 3% for the year. So this is probably more ugly than it seems even today. And given that change and look what happened in the stock, I don’t think that’s fully priced in. So I think, Dan, you’ve been clear about that $100. I I don’t think we’re going to see 100, but I do believe that the stock is going to go lower because this is going to be what I think is going to be kind of the kitchen sink where you’re going to see analysts. I’d had that job for a long time. Throw in the towel and say that this is going to be over for a long time. So I want to point that start there. Second is the bigger picture and I think Tim you were talking about just you know this EV and the EV pitcher just to frame that in that’s a 2 1/2 trillion dollar market. What’s the auto market on a yearly basis? Eventually, of course, it’s going to go EV panel appropriately talked about. What’s the timing of that. I think it’s going to come faster than most people think even though this is such an ugly day on the delivery numbers. And the reason is that I believe one of the the biggest factors in this horrible number was that there was so much excitement around EVs. People who typically buy a car every five years, probably moved it forward to bought it three years, pulled a lot of demand. And I think eventually that just starts. I’m guilty of being too optimistic, but I think eventually they get to the other side. And one final thought, Dan, you talked about FSD. I agree that that is an important piece here. If anybody’s tried FSD, the beta that they just put out last week, it is a step function better than what they’ve ever done. And so I think that is going to come probably the next year or two and I believe that that’s going to be another catalyst. So that’s where I’m at. What can they tell us of anything in the next quarter or two that can sort of, I don’t want to say solve certain issues, but for instance, if they come out with a lower cost model, does that solve for some of the weakness that they will see in China and and address that next wave of growth that investors are looking for? Is there sort of a couple of things that they can do that can make the story a little bit better? So you’ve got two camps. You’ve got the people who believe and the reason why the stocks not down more today is because that camp still exists. The reason why this still has the market cap it does is because that camp still exists. They’re not going to be influenced probably by another couple punky quarters that won’t influence it. The people who are skeptical, there’s nothing that Tesla’s going to say over the next when they report their quarter on the 23rd that’s going to get those people more optimistic. But as an investor, I think you need to Fast forward to, I’m already thinking about mid 2025 and at that point we’re going to have some really easy comps. I mean this is a down 9%. March of 2025 is we’re going to start to get easier comps. I think that starts getting reflected in the stock probably mid to late this year. So that’s kind of the time frame. It’s going to be rocky for the next several months. I don’t think there’s much they can say, Melissa.

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