Battle for Chasiv Yar - The Mountain Fortress that Could Determine the Future of Donbass

A Ukrainian artillery soldier in Chasiv Yar. IMAGO/ZUMA Wire

Frontelligence published an extensive analysis of the battle for Chasiv Yar on the platform Substack. Managed by a former Ukrainian officer, the account emphasizes the crucial implications of the outcome of this battle – for both sides. The battle serves as a kind of litmus test. Here’s what’s at stake:

The battle for Chasiv Yar will determine the fate of Donbass

For Ukraine: “Should Ukraine lose control over Chasiv Yar, the repercussions could be severe, as it would provide the Russian army with a direct route to key cities in the Donbass region, such as Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk.” Hence the battle for Chasiv Yar could dictate the fate of Donbass.

For Russia: “If the Russian forces fail to conquer Chasiv Yar by summer, it would expose serious issues within the Russian military.”

A few days ago, the Russian side claimed their army had penetrated the city’s outer districts. Ukraine denies this. Neither of these claims can be independently verified.

According to Frontelligence, the Russian army has a near-complete advantage in the fight for Chasiv Yar in almost every aspect: the sheer number of troops, vehicles, artillery, ammunition, and air support. It’s precisely because of this dominance that the Russian army must conquer the city.

Chasiv Yar is Kiev’s mountain fortress – that’s what makes the city so crucial

Why is this city so critical? A look at the topographic map of the area makes it clear. Chasiv Yar sits atop a hill, offering a strong defensive position over the surrounding areas. The city is a true mountain fortress – failure to defend it would be a bitter blow for Ukraine.

Frontelligence, however, has identified a problem that significantly complicates the city’s defense: the roads leading to the city are largely not mined. This information is based on videos analyzed by the portal, showing advancing Russian columns.

Frontelligence attributes the Russian army’s material superiority, in part, to the lack of weapons supplies from the West.

“Heroic courage and the defenders’ capabilities cannot be the only pillar of defense”

Frontelligence concludes that “the terrain alone is not enough to hold off the Russian forces. Heroic courage and the defenders’ capabilities cannot be the only pillar of defense. That’s why Ukraine needs a well-thought-out defensive strategy, one that takes both potential weaknesses and previous mistakes into account.”