Off-centre | Taiwanese poser: Challenges ahead for President-elect Lai Ching-te

Off-centre | Taiwanese poser: Challenges ahead for President-elect Lai Ching-te

On 7 January, at the beginning of the new year, Sheikh Hasina scored a huge electoral victory, thus commencing an unprecedented fifth term as Bangladesh’s prime minister. Actually, this was only the beginning. 2024 is the year of elections in democracies the world over. Not in another quarter of a century will so many nations go to the polls in one year. Barely a week after Bangladesh, it was Taiwan’s turn.

On 13 January, celebrated as Lohri or the harvest festival in Northern India, Taiwan went to the polls. Lai Ching-te, better known as William Lai, of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won 40.05 per cent of the votes to become the president-elect of this important island country. He defeated his nearest rival, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) by a margin of nearly 6.5 per cent of the popular ballot. Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) came third with 26.5 per cent of the votes cast.

Why are these elections important? The answer is obvious. China. Xi Jinping, the supremo of the world’s second most powerful country, has made no bones about his intention to integrate Taiwan with mainland China. In fact, for decades, it was Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (RoC), which claimed to be the real and legitimate country. That name itself goes back to 1912 when RoC was founded in mainland China during Japanese colonial rule.

After Mao Zedong led the Communist revolution and defeated the nationalists in China’s civil war, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was established on 1 October, 1949. The leaders of “nationalist China” fled to Taiwan, creating their own state there. But the demand and the resolution of the PRC rulers to extend their control over RoC did not weaken with the several passing decades. If anything, the desire to reunify Taiwan with the mainland has become the hallmark of Xi’s presidency.

Of course, such a move is bound to be resisted by the United States and its allies, who, despite their professed acceptance in principle of the “One China” policy, actually favour the status quo. Which is Taiwan’s virtual autonomy if not complete independence. In these elections, not surprisingly, China’s shadow loomed large over the small island of roughly 36,000 square kilometres and 23 million people. How to face up to the imminent threat of a Chinese takeover was the central issue.

Taiwan is proud of its democratic traditions as it is of its educated and prosperous populace. For years, the Taiwanese economic miracle served as a contrast to “Red China.” But over the last forty years China’s breath-taking progress in both economic power and military clout has all but eclipsed Taiwan’s claim to represent a genuine alternative to China’s single-party authoritarian regime. China, on its part, has never forsworn the military option to take over Taiwan. In fact, since the escalations of tensions between the West and China, which some would call the start of a new cold war, Taiwan has faced repeated demonstrations of its giant neighbour’s overwhelming martial advantage.

Lai, currently serving as vice president under President Tsai Ing-wen, is known for his pro-independence stance. He has sometimes used tough rhetoric against China, even while repeatedly calling for dialogue with Beijing. He has insisted, however, that such a dialogue must be carried out with mutual respect and dignity. He has also pledged to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy with all means necessary. To this end, he aims to strengthen Taiwan’s national defence, economy, and strategic ties with the Western world.

Lai, a medical doctor by profession, is an experienced politician. He has been a legislator for a decade, besides being a former mayor of Tainan. China regards him a hardliner whofavours  Taiwan’s independence. Now that he is slated to be sworn as the head of state on 20 May, 2024, will he soften his stand for pragmatic reasons? Lai has been known for the position that there is no need to campaign for or declare Taiwanese independence because it has always been free of mainland China’s rule. Never has the Communist Party of China (CPC) exercised control over it. But does that mean that China will stay away from Taiwan. Most certainly not.

Lai, who succeeds outgoing two-term president Tsai Ing-wen is expected to continue her moderate but principled stance of refusing to accept that Taiwan is a party of China. China has retaliated by increasing both diplomatic and military pressure as well as trying to isolate Taiwan globally. But Lai’s victory demonstrates, once again, that a majority of the island country’s inhabitants consider themselves Taiwanese rather than Chinese.

Lai’s election is likely to have significant implications for Taiwan’s domestic politics, cross-strait relations, and regional security. Taiwan’s younger generation, not entirely unlike its counterparts in the mainland, do not  find Communist rule attractive. They voted for Lai because they were dissatisfied with KMT and TPP’s pro-China or conciliatory approach. Taiwan’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic also brought it global recognition and praise as opposed to China’s secretive clampdown and total lockdown.

If Lai does not secure a majority in Taiwan’s parliament, his powers will be considerably curtailed. His party currently has 61 out of 113 seats, which is barely four over the halfway mark. A combined opposition of KMT and TTP would pose a formidable challenge. It is anybody’s guess what Lai would do if Beijing ratchets up its aggression by imposing a blockade, economic sanctions, sabotage, and subversion, if not an outright attack or invasion.

Quite uncannily, the answer may lie not in cross-strait manoeuvres but elsewhere, in the November 2024 United States presidential elections.

The writer is an author, columnist, and professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views

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