D-Street may see a volatile week ahead with central banks in focus

Asia's Tech News Daily

Dalal Street, Sensex, Central banks, Nifty, RBI, FPI, FIIs, Omicron variant

NEW DELHI: Going ahead, Dalal Street is eying a repeat of the week gone by. Volatility will be a central theme for the markets as traders jostle to grasp the newsflow around coronavirus and stances of central banks, said analysts.

Concerns over the new Omicron variant, rising global inflation and the Fed’s remarks on early tapering continued to drive volatility in the market last week. It will not be much different next week either. Investors would keep an eye on RBI’s policy decision due next week wherein status quo is likely to be maintained, most market commentators agree.

“Market volatility is likely to continue given the uncertainty around the new Omicron variant and Fed tapering. Till clarity doesn’t emerge over its rate of transmission, hospitalization needs, etc., news flows around it would keep markets unpredictable,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Though Khemka said the fall in the market has made valuations comfortable. He added that given the robust long-term fundamentals, investors are recommended to indulge in value buying from time to time.

Benchmark indices have slumped over 7 per cent from all-time high levels. Many have said the market may fall up to 15 per cent from that level. However, not many are doubting the strength of the bull market. Emerging market guru Mark Mobius said he sees corrections in the market as a good opportunity to buy into Indian markets.

Though in the short term, analysts are advising caution and avoiding unnecessary risky bets.

FPI selling to continue

Another feature of the market in recent weeks has been consistent selling from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), which is likely to continue. As per NSDL data updated till Friday, FPIs have sold equity worth Rs 8,300 crore in December. This is on top of Rs 19,500 crore of net selling in the previous two months.

Stretched valuations, Fed’s observations on accelerating tapering and concern on inflation and the potential impact of the Omicron variant on economic activity and corporate earnings are the factors influencing FPI activity.

In early November many large foreign brokerages had downgraded India from overweight to neutral on stretched valuations. Even after the recent sell-off, Nifty is trading at 20 times FY23 earnings, which is much higher than the historical average of around 16, noted analysts.

FIIs may continue to sell, though at a subdued pace. Since the risk appetite of retail investors and DIIs continues to be high and FPI selling is easily getting absorbed, this need not result in a sharp correction in the market,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

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