Covid cases nearly lower than when ‘Plan B' was triggered as figures suggest worst is over

Covid face masks, Westminster, London – Victoria Jones /PA

Covid cases are approaching levels lower than when “Plan B” was triggered, with data increasingly showing that Britain is over the worst.

On Sunday, cases fell to 70,924, the lowest since mid-December, before rising to 84,429 on Monday in the usual increase at the start of the week. However, that is a 42 per cent decline since the previous Monday.

If the current trajectory continues, Britain will hit around 50,000 cases by the middle of the week – the same level as when Boris Johnson announced restrictions on Dec 8.

The number of tests coming back positive has also started to fall, from a high of 32.3 per cent on Jan 4 to 26 per cent on Jan 11, showing that it is a true decline rather than a lack of testing capacity as some have claimed. The Office for National Statistics infection survey is also showing falls in recent days.

Data show the number of people requiring mechanical ventilation had dropped to 746 as of Jan 13 – the lowest it has been since Nov 10. The number of patients in hospital with Covid in Britain has declined to 19,345 after peaking at 19,906 on Jan 10.

The figures show that 44 per cent of people in hospital in England are incidental cases, having been admitted for a different reason and tested positive on arrival or shortly afterwards. There are also signs that admissions are levelling off.

England’s “Plan B” restrictions are due to expire on Jan 26, and ministers hope they will not need to be renewed.

Prof Mike Tildesley, of the University of Warwick and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M), said case figures were “cautiously good news” and he hoped the country may have a “flu-type” relationship with Covid by next winter.

He told BBC Breakfast that “it does look like, across the whole of the country, cases seem to be falling”, adding: “We have had very, very high case numbers throughout late December and early January – we peaked at about 200,000 at one point.

“We do now seem to be a little bit beyond that. Hospital admissions are still relatively high, albeit there is some evidence that maybe they’re plateauing or possibly going down in London, which is cautiously good news.

“I would say we probably need about an extra week of data to really see the effect of children going back to school – we’re still only two weeks since children went back to school – but if we still see that over the next week or so, I’d be pretty confident that we are seeing this wave turning around.”

Downing Street said there were “encouraging signs”, with the Prime Minister’s official spokesman saying the “maximum amount of time possible” would be given to prepare for any changes in the rules.

“In terms of the data, there are some encouraging signs that infections are falling across the country,” the spokesman said. “There are also some signs of falls – or at least plateauing – in admissions and occupancy in hospital, which is good to see.

“But it still remains the case that our NHS is under significant pressure – there are over 16,000 Covid patients in hospital in England alone. So we are keeping a very close eye on the data but we do believe the mitigations we have in place – particularly our booster programme – are offering massive protection to the public.”

Dr David Nabarro, a World Health Organisation special envoy for Covid, told Sky News there was “light at the end of the tunnel” for the UK.