CNBC Fed Survey forecasts more aggressive Fed, but better economic growth

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing on the CARES Act, at the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC, U.S., September 28, 2021.Kevin Dietsch | Reuters

the latest tech news, global tech news daily, tech news today, startups, usa tech, asia tech, china tech, eu tech, global tech, in-depth electronics reviews, 24h tech news, 24h tech news, top mobile apps, tech news daily, gaming hardware, big tech news, useful technology tips, expert interviews, reporting on the business of technology, venture capital funding, programing language

The CNBC Fed Survey shows market expectations have turned aggressive for Federal Reserve policy tightening this year and next, with respondents looking for multiple rate hikes and significant balance sheet reduction.

At the same time, the outlook for the economy has actually improved.

Global Tech News Daily

The first hike is now firmly seen coming in March, compared with a June expectation in the December survey. Respondents expect 3.5 rate hikes this year, showing that three are agreed but there is debate over whether there's a fourth. Half of the 36 respondents see two or three hikes this year, and half see four or five.

CNBC Fed Survey

An additional three hikes are expected next year. That makes the forecast for a funds rate of just over 1% this year, compared to around zero now, 1.8% in 2023 and a terminal rate, or the end-point of the hiking cycle, at 2.4% reached in March 2024.

Global Tech News Daily

“The Fed has pivoted from patient to panicked on inflation in record time,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, wrote in response to the survey. “That ups the risk of a misstep in policy, especially in light of the complexity of inflation dynamics today.”

The central bank's two-day meeting ends Wednesday, where it is expected to give more clues as to when it will hike rates and begin shrinking the balance sheet. Chairman Jerome Powell will also address the media.

CNBC Fed Survey

The balance sheet runoff is seen beginning in July, much earlier than the last survey, which pegged the beginning in November. While the Fed has yet to formulate a plan for balance sheet runoff, here is a first look at how respondents believe it could happen: 

  • $380 billion to come off the $9 trillion balance sheet this year and $860 billion in 2023.
  • Monthly runoff pace of $73 billion eventually, far faster than the last runoff in 2018, but the Fed will phase in this monthly pace.
  • $2.8 trillion in total runoff or about a third of the balance sheet over 3 years.

Most support the Fed reducing the mortgage portfolio before Treasurys, letting short-term Treasurys runoff before long-term ones and only reducing the balance sheet by not replacing securities that mature, rather than outright asset sales.

CNBC Fed Survey

“Investors are under-appreciating risk in the financial system,” said Chad Morganlander, portfolio manager at Stifel Nicolaus. “The wave of liquidity and the zero-interest policy have distorted all markets. The Federal Reserve should have shifted policy a year ago.”

91% of respondents say the Fed is significantly or somewhat late in addressing inflation.

“The Fed should start by raising rates aggressively, that is, 50 bps initially, so it can throttle back later when/if supply chain issues start resolving themselves and inflation comes down as a result,” wrote Joel L. Naroff, president, Naroff Economics LLC, in response to the survey.

Respondents marked down their outlook for stocks but only modestly compared to how much they boosted their outlook for Fed rate hikes. The S&P 500 is seen ending the year at 4,658, or a 5.6% increase from the Monday close. That's down from the December forecast of 4752. The S&P is forecast to rise to 4889 in 2023.

The CNBC Risk-Reward ratio, which gauges the probability of a 10% increase or decline in stocks over the next six months, fell to -14 from -11 in the last survey. There is an average 52% probability of a 10% decline in the next six months, compared to just a 38% probability of a 10% gain.

While the outlook for Fed tightening has increased, respondents' economic outlook actually improved. The forecast for GDP rose to 4.46% this year, up by half a point, and to 3.5% for 2023, up about the same amount. Higher real or inflation-adjusted growth comes amid expectations for higher inflation, with the outlook for the CPI raised by about 0.4 percentage points this year to 4.4% and to 3.2% next year.

The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.6% this year, compared to the current rate of 3.9%. The chance of recession in the next year rose to 23% from 19% but remains about average. Inflation is seen as the No 1. threat to the expansion and 51% believe the Fed will have to raise rates above neutral to slow the economy.

“Assuming the pandemic continues to recede – each new wave of the virus is less disruptive than the previous one – the economy will be at full employment and inflation near the Fed's target by this time next year,” wrote Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics.

News Related

OTHER NEWS

Van Polen in zak en as na degradatie PEC: 'We moeten onze excuses aanbieden'

Bram van Polen zit er helemaal doorheen nu de degradatie van PEC Zwolle een voldongen feit is. De aanvoerder heeft na de fatale 2-0-nederlaag bij Sparta Rotterdam van woensdagavond vooral te doen met de supporters en de medewerkers van de club. Read more »

Manchester City dankzij vier goals De Bruyne stap dichter bij titel, Celtic kampioen

Manchester City is weer een stap dichter bij de Engelse landstitel gekomen. De ploeg van coach Josep Guardiola won woensdag dankzij vier doelpunten van Kevin De Bruyne met 1-5 bij Wolverhampton Wanderers. Chelsea is dankzij een 0-3-zege bij Leeds United zo goed als zeker van een Champions League-ticket en in Schotland veroverde Celtic de 52e landstitel. Read more »

Chelsea punish reckless Dan James tackle as troubled Leeds see red again

Dan James was dismissed as Leeds received a first-half red card for the second match in a row (Getty Images) Chelsea got their Champions League bid back on track and ... Read more »

‘Defend, reimburse, represent': Greg Norman accelerates into PGA Tour collision course

Greg Norman addresses the media at Centurion Golf Club (AFP via Getty Images) Greg Norman pressed the accelerator on Wednesday as the inevitable collision course between his breakaway series and ... Read more »

Kevin De Bruyne left wanting more Man City goals despite netting four in win at Wolves

Kevin De Bruyne took centre stage at Molineux (Nick Potts/PA) (PA Wire) Kevin De Bruyne hailed a special night but felt he should have scored five after netting four times ... Read more »

Kevin De Bruyne scores four as Manchester City thrash Wolves to close in on title

Kevin De Bruyne added to Man City’s healthy goal difference (AFP via Getty Images) It was supposed to be Liverpool who were doing the quadruple, not Kevin De Bruyne. But, ... Read more »

Tottenham vs Arsenal predicted line-ups: Team news ahead of the Premier League fixture tonight

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is closing in on taking the club back into the Champions League (Frank Augstein/AP) (AP) Arsenal travel to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Thursday night to ... Read more »

Kevin de Bruyne shines as a perfect false forward as Man City await their new No.9

De Bruyne struck four times against Wolves in City’s 5-1 win at Molyneux (Getty) Pep Guardiola can be the scourge of the centre-forward, the pioneer who threatens to render them ... Read more »

Frank Lampard opts for pragmatism and points over performances as the short-term fix for Everton

(Getty Images) Wednesday night’s 0-0 draw with Watford was the kind of result for Everton that does not need to be spoken of further. It was a point towards safety, ... Read more »

Arensman vertrekt bij Team DSM en lijkt op weg naar INEOS Grenadiers

Thymen Arensman vertrekt na dit wielerseizoen bij Team DSM, zo heeft de ploeg donderdag bevestigd aan VeloNews. De beloftevolle Nederlander gaat zeer waarschijnlijk een tweejarig contract bij INEOS Grenadiers tekenen. Read more »

PSV Vrouwen strikt met Worm derde Oranje-international voor komend seizoen

PSV Vrouwen heeft donderdag voor de derde keer in korte tijd een Oranje-international vastgelegd voor volgend seizoen. Siri Worm komt transfervrij over van Eintracht Frankfurt. Read more »

Vitesse geeft bijna veertig fans stadionverbod wegens afsteken van rookbommen

Vitesse heeft bijna veertig supporters een stadionverbod opgelegd vanwege het afsteken van rookbommen. De thuiswedstrijd tegen sc Heerenveen (1-2) moest zondag na een kwartier tijdelijk worden stilgelegd, omdat achter een van de doelen flinke rookontwikkeling ontstond. Eén rookbom werd zelfs op het veld gegooid. Read more »

Suzuki praat over ontbinding contract en wil MotoGP na dit seizoen verlaten

Suzuki wil de MotoGP na dit seizoen verlaten. De Japanse fabrikant praat met WK-organisator Dorna over ontbinding van het contract, heeft Suzuki donderdag in een verklaring laten weten. Die verbintenis loopt nu nog door tot eind 2026. Read more »

Tottenham vs Arsenal: Who has the best remaining fixtures in the top four run-in?

Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur are left to battle for a place in the Premier League top four (Getty Images) The race to qualify for next season’s Champions League has still ... Read more »

Brendon McCullum is another bold step into the unknown for a new England

Brendon McCullum is the new head coach of the England Test team (Getty Images) Unforeseen, exciting and with apprehension that this is a good idea before he accelerated out of ... Read more »

Brendon McCullum: How England's new coach already helped them win a World Cup

The Kiwi was the inspiration for England’s 2019 triumph (Getty Images) Before he even starts work as England’s Test coach, Brendon McCullum can already claim to have left an indelible ... Read more »

Ajax confirms Alfred Schreuder is new head coach on two year deal

Alfred Schreuder in action. Photo: Kurt Desplenter Belga Photo As expected, Alfred Schreuder has signed a two year deal to become new head coach at Amsterdam football club Ajax, replacing ... Read more »

Ajax begint met Berghuis en Mazraoui aan kampioensduel, Brobbey op de bank

Ajax begint woensdag met Steven Berghuis en Noussair Mazraoui aan de thuiswedstrijd tegen sc Heerenveen. Bij winst zijn de Amsterdammers verzekerd van de 36e landstitel. Read more »

Madueke vervangt geblesseerde Veerman bij PSV in cruciaal duel met NEC

PSV begint woensdag met Noni Madueke in plaats van de geblesseerde Joey Veerman aan de belangrijke thuiswedstrijd tegen NEC. De ploeg van trainer Roger Schmidt moet winnen om nog kans te maken op de titel en is dan alsnog afhankelijk van wat koploper Ajax doet tegen sc Heerenveen. Read more »

St. Juste maakt miljoenentransfer van Mainz naar Sporting CP

Jeremiah St. Juste verlaat FSV Mainz 05 voor Sporting CP. De Nederlandse verdediger maakt voor naar verluidt 10 miljoen euro de overstap naar de Portugese topclub. Read more »

Ajax start met Berghuis en Mazraoui aan kampioensduel, Brobbey op de bank

Ajax begint woensdag met Steven Berghuis en Noussair Mazraoui aan de thuiswedstrijd tegen sc Heerenveen. Bij winst zijn de Amsterdammers verzekerd van de 36e landstitel. Read more »

Phil Mickelson requests release from PGA Tour to play first Saudi-backed event

Phil Mickelson has requested a release from the PGA Tour to play the first LIV Golf Invitational Series event in June (David Davies/PA) (PA Archive) Phil Mickelson has requested a ... Read more »

Harry Brook eager to press England claims against ‘best ever' James Anderson

Harry Brook is ready to prove himself against a classy Lancashire attack (Mike Egerton/PA) (PA Archive) Yorkshire’s rising star Harry Brook is out to prove his England credentials in this ... Read more »

Max Verstappen ‘irritable' with Red Bull at Miami Grand Prix

Verstappen ended up winning in Miami despite problems earlier on in the weekend (Getty Images) Reigning Formula One world champion Max Verstappen was ‘irritable’ during the Miami Grand Prix weekend, ... Read more »

Bayern-directeur Salihamidzic bevestigt komst van transfervrije Mazraoui

Bayern München-directeur Hasan Salihamidzic heeft woensdag bevestigd dat Ajax-rechtsback Noussair Mazraoui na dit seizoen de overstap maakt naar de club uit Beieren. De transfer is op enkele details na rond. Read more »

FA Youth Cup final: How to watch Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest tonight

The FA Youth Cup final will take place at Old Trafford (Manchester United via Getty Imag) Manchester United and Nottingham Forest are preparing to face off in the final of ... Read more »

Voormalig Tour-winnaar Nibali (37) stopt eind dit jaar met wielrennen

Vincenzo Nibali stopt aan het eind van dit jaar met wielrennen. De 37-jarige Italiaan heeft woensdag na de vijfde etappe in de Giro d'Italia zijn pensioen aangekondigd. Read more »

Reacties na sprintetappezege Démare

Liveblog Giro Deze inhoud kan helaas niet worden getoond Wij hebben geen toestemming voor de benodigde cookies. Aanvaard de cookies om deze inhoud te bekijken.Wijzig cookie-instellingen Read more »

Van der Poel maakt zich klaar voor massasprint

Liveblog Giro Deze inhoud kan helaas niet worden getoond Wij hebben geen toestemming voor de benodigde cookies. Aanvaard de cookies om deze inhoud te bekijken.Wijzig cookie-instellingen Read more »

Cavendish staakt jacht op kopgroep met Van der Poel

Liveblog Giro Deze inhoud kan helaas niet worden getoond Wij hebben geen toestemming voor de benodigde cookies. Aanvaard de cookies om deze inhoud te bekijken.Wijzig cookie-instellingen Read more »

Nadal en Zverev plaatsen zich zonder setverlies voor achtste finales in Rome

Rafael Nadal en Alexander Zverev hebben zich woensdag zonder al te veel moeite voor de achtste finales van het Masters-toernooi in Rome geplaatst. Beide topspelers stonden geen set af tijdens hun eerste partij op het Italiaanse gravel. Read more »

France : une information judiciaire pour "complicité de torture" vise le président d'Interpol

Une information judiciaire a été ouverte fin mars à Paris pour “complicité de torture” après la plainte de deux Britanniques visant le président émirati d’Interpol, Ahmed Nasser al-Raisi, a appris ... Read more »

Sydney Kings crowned NBL champs after completing clean sweep over Tasmania JackJumpers

MiKyle McIntosh drives to the basket but couldn’t stop the Kings from being crowned NBL champions. Photo: AAP Live Sydney Kings have won their first NBL title in 17 years, ... Read more »

Three Manchester United youngsters to look out for ahead of FA Youth Cup final against Nottingham Forest

Charlie McNeil is just one highly-rated Manchester United youngster. (Photo by Charlotte Tattersall/Getty Images) Over 64,000 fans will cram into Old Trafford tonight, hoping to get a glimpse of future ... Read more »

Cavendish en Ewan in de problemen na lange klim

Liveblog Giro Deze inhoud kan helaas niet worden getoond Wij hebben geen toestemming voor de benodigde cookies. Aanvaard de cookies om deze inhoud te bekijken.Wijzig cookie-instellingen Read more »

Shorttrackbondscoach Otter doet tijdelijk stap terug, Kerstholt vervangt hem

Bondscoach Jeroen Otter neemt in het aankomende shorttrackseizoen een sabbatical. In die periode zal oud-shorttracker Niels Kerstholt hem vervangen. Read more »

Lewis Hamilton ‘definitively’ superseded by George Russell at Mercedes, says ex-F1 champion

George Russell and Lewis Hamilton are unable to challenge for race wins with Mercedes so far this season. (Photo by Dan Istitene – Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images) A ... Read more »

Gabriel Jesus’ agent reveals Manchester City forward likes Arsenal ‘project’ after transfer talks

Gabriel Jesus is in talks to join Arsenal (Getty) Gabriel Jesus’ agent says a transfer to Arsenal is a ‘serious possibility’ and claims the Manchester City forward likes the ‘project’ ... Read more »

Romelu Lukaku must pass Leeds test to book FA Cup final spot as he looks to kick-start Chelsea career at last

Close T homas Tuchel had no words of advice for Erling Haaland ahead of his move to Manchester City. But the message to Romelu Lukaku was clear: Play your way ... Read more »

Jaap Stam rates Donny van de Beek’s chances of getting first-team role under Erik ten Hag

Ten Hag will be reunited with van de Beek this summer (Picture: Getty) Jaap Stam believes Donny van de Beek will benefit from the arrival of Erik ten Hag and ... Read more »