Warmer seas in the Indian Ocean are being pushed towards Australia increasing the possibility of rainfall Picture: BOMSource:Supplied
There is also a high chance the ENSO will turn to a neutral, or La Nina, phase also bringing rainfall. Picture: BOMSource:Supplied
That’s combining with a lowering of water temperatures in a patch of the Pacific Ocean which is crucial in the formation of positive or negative ENSO conditions – the latter of which is known as a La Nina.
A La Nina occurs when trade winds increase, hauling cooler waters from the depths of the ocean up to the surface in the eastern Pacific.
These stronger winds from east to west also push warmer seas closer to Australia. That aids in the creation of more clouds and so moisture and windier conditions for the continent.
“Some models indicate this cooling could be sufficient to reach La Nina levels during spring,” Dr Feikema said.
“However, even if La Nina levels are not reached (and ENSO remains in neutral) this cooling may strengthen the wet outlook for much of Australia. As a result, the August to October outlook suggests above average rainfall is very likely across much of the country”
It could be hotter during the day in the south and north of Australia. Picture: BOMSource:Supplied
Flooding a ‘possibility’
Already sodden catchments means that widespread flooding is a real possibility in the coming months across south eastern parts of the country.
However the increased rainfall is less likely to occur in south west WA, bringing a reprieve from the incessant rain in Perth. Southern Victoria and much of Tasmania may also miss out.
Rainfall will be heavier just about everywhere with the exception of WA and western Tasmania. Picture: BOMSource:Supplied
As for temperatures, days are likely to be warmer than average across Tasmania, Victoria, coastal New South Wales and southern parts of South Australia as well as the nation’s north.
But nights are likely to warmer across almost the entirety of the country with the exception of southwest Western Australia.
The Bureau added that Australia’s climate has warmed by around 1.44C for the 1910–2019 period, while southern Australia had seen a reduction of 10–20 per cent in cool season rainfall in recent decades.