Clear and present danger of climate change in Gulf region

Just as the world saw record land and sea temperatures in 2023, so some research models have for long suggested up to a quarter of global GDP (gross domestic product) could be lost if no action is taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

Greenhouse gas emissions made recent deadly flooding in the United Arab Emirates and Oman anywhere from 10% to 40% more intense than it would have been in the preindustrial era, according to a rapid analysis of the event by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) research initiative.

Major storms come irregularly to the southeastern Arabian Peninsula. When they do, they tend to land under conditions of El Nino, the occasional warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific that plays havoc with weather around the world.

The storm first landed in Oman on April 14, killing at least 21 people in flash floods and other incidents, according to the official Oman News Agency.

It hit the UAE on April 16, dumping nearly two years’ worth of rain that flooded homes, roads, malls and offices and left four people dead.

Dubai, marketed as a financial hub, faced severe disruption for days with major roads blocked by floods, power outages and some residents trapped in their homes.

Dubai’s airport, the world’s busiest by international travellers, cancelled 2,155 flights and diverted 115.

There were accurate forecasting and public alerts in Oman and the UAE. But some 80% of Omanis and 85% of Emiratis live on low-lying, flood-prone ground, according to WWA, and 90% of the UAE’s infrastructure is at risk from rising sea level and extreme weather.

A different team of scientists in January found that by midcentury, annual rain in the UAE may rise by up to 30%, with an increase in days seeing 10 millimetres or more of rain. More than 250 millimetres (10 inches) fell on Dubai on April 14 and April 15.

The rarity and irregularity of massive deluges in the region left the researchers with a small data set to work with, and consequently high statistical uncertainty.

They concluded that climate change worsened the storm based on what the short meteorological record does offer them, combined with regional and global trends, the fact of warmer air holding more water, and that climate-driven circulation changes can worsen such storms.

In addition to their climate-science conclusions, the WWA researchers analysed vulnerabilities and address how Emirati and Omani officials might adapt to future floods. For urban planners, the floods should highlight how the built environment can exacerbate flooding, namely lots of impermeable surfaces and little or no storm water infrastructure.

“There was an early warning system being disseminated through the media and news. But the problem is that people don’t care about this early warning system,” said Mansour Almazroui, a researcher at the Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research at King Abdulaziz University, in Jeddah.

Governments of the region could work with media to communicate potential danger more thoroughly and effectively, he said.

Worldwide, extreme rain has increased in intensity and frequency with the rising temperature, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has found. And global and regional findings about rising risks underlie the WWA scientists’ conclusions about the local effects.

Almost $200tn of investment is needed by 2050 to reach net-zero emissions, according to a BloombergNEF estimate last year.

Across the world, the cities that some 4.4bn people call home are increasingly at risk of catastrophic climate-driven events. According to UN-Habitat, the share of people living in urban areas is expected to increase to 68% by 2050.

Clearly, cities will play a central role in how the world addresses climate change.

Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (Syndigate.info).