Dangerous ice storm, snow to lead warmup in Midwest and Northeast

A major warmup will lead to a January thaw over much of the Midwest and Northeast this week. However, as moisture surges into the regions, enough cold air will linger at the onset of the pattern flip to lead to slippery travel from an ice or snowstorm in more than a dozen states, AccuWeather meteorologists warn. The thaw may also result in travel issues as well.

A glaze of ice encased exposed surfaces in ice and shut down travel from Oklahoma to Illinois on Monday morning. However, while milder air moving in over much of the Mississippi Valley will soon help to thaw the ice, the leading edge of the rain will freeze on trees, roads and sidewalks from Illinois to Ohio, southern Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York state and New England into midweek.

Dangerous ice storm, snow to lead warmup in Midwest and Northeast

Where the ice accrues to a thickness of about 0.25 of an inch or greater, it may weigh trees down enough to cause them to break and trigger power outages. This is most likely from northwestern Arkansas to northern Ohio and the southern tier of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.

Any ice accumulation is dangerous for motorists and pedestrians. The ice may be so thin as to appear wet or various textures of the ice may provide traction in one spot but be extremely slippery in another.

Interstate 70, 80 and 90 corridors in the Midwest and central Appalachians will be hit the hardest by the ice into Tuesday.

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Farther east in New England, many major roads in the central and northern part of the region will become icy for a time spanning late Tuesday to Wednesday.

The freezing rain setup is caused by a shallow layer of cold air nearest to the ground as much warmer air flows in at the middle and upper layers of the atmosphere.

Where the cold layer is thicker across more of the northern tier, snow and sleet will occur instead of freezing rain.

That cold layer will be thick enough to support accumulating snow to fall for a time, mainly from eastern Iowa and southern Wisconsin to upstate New York, the northern tier of Pennsylvania and New England, where 1-6 inches of snow will fall.

The snow may start dry and powdery but become wet and slushy as temperatures rise with the potential for some sleet to mix in with the snow.

Many airline delays and flight cancellations will occur due to the ice and snowstorm. Some of the major Midwest hubs most affected will be Chicago, Detroit, St. Louis and Cleveland.

As the ice and snow expand in the Northeast, even though wintry conditions will avoid most major hubs, secondary regional airports, a beginning and final destination for many airline passengers, will be adversely affected as crews and aircraft are displaced into Wednesday.

The incoming storm will bring accumulating snow, then ice to New Hampshire, where the state’s primary election will occur on Tuesday. Voters are urged to head out early to avoid the worst travel conditions later in the day and in the evening.

There is the potential for fog to form in areas where the air temperature rises above freezing quickly and the ground is just wet, such as in Boston, Pittsburgh, New York City, Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. This can lead to additional ground stops, flight delays and cancellations this week, even when temperatures rise well above the historical average for late January.

Highs in the 40s, 50s and 60s may be widespread during the second half of this week as the January thaw kicks into high gear.

The thaw will be accompanied by areas of clouds and rain, even if fog is absent. From Tuesday to Friday, most of the rainy episodes will occur from the northwestern Gulf Coast to the lower Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio Valley and eastward to much of the Atlantic coast. Motorists may encounter ponding during their travels as a series of storms rolls up from the Gulf of Mexico.

There is the potential for locally dense fog to develop due to the cold ground or remaining snow cover leading to extra condensation.

The brevity of the Arctic cold allowed only a relatively thin layer of ice to form on northern ponds, lakes and streams, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg said.

The combination of rising temperatures and rain thrown in with already high stream levels may lead to some flooding along unprotected waterways.

“Because of the thin ice, only localized problems from ice jams are likely as the thaw builds,” Lundberg stated.

Ice coverage on the Great Lakes, sitting at 14% as of Monday, Jan. 22, is well behind the historical average for late January, according to the Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory. Typical ice coverage in late January is about 25% and peaks in late February to early March.

“The breakup of the thin ice will also pose dangers to fishing interests and other frozen lake enthusiasts in the region,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said, adding, “Little ice last winter and so far this winter has caused the ice fishing and other industries in the Midwest and Northeast to take a hit.”

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