5 Things to Know About Iowa Before the GOP Caucuses

FILE – Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump arrives to speak at a commit to caucus rally, Jan. 6, 2024, in Clinton, Iowa. In 2024, Iowa will again hold the first Republican contest. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall, File)

Iowa Republicans on Monday will gather to decide on their favorite candidate for the 2024 presidential election through a caucus system, continuing the state’s historical tradition of hosting the nation’s first presidential nominating contest.

The relatively small state has played a fairly large role in American politics because of this tradition. There have only been two cases in the history of the modern Iowa caucuses in which a candidate in either party finished below third place and went on to snatch the nomination: John McCain in 2008 and Joe Biden in 2020.

Here are some important facts to know about Iowa as voters get ready to gather on Monday.

How Do the Iowa Caucuses Work?

Instead of casting their vote in a private booth like a typical primary, voters who will turn 18 by Election Day meet at about 1,700 precincts throughout the state’s 99 counties starting at 7 p.m. local time. One must be registered to the appropriate political party to participate, but same-night voter registration is possible.

The process can take several hours. Individuals are allowed to give a short speech summarizing their reasons for supporting a specific candidate and then voting can begin, according to the Iowa Caucus Project. In the Republican process, each participant writes the name of their preferred candidate on a piece of paper, which is passed to the front of the room and tallied. The totals are later reported to the state party organization. Democrats, which this year switched to a mail-in caucus system, have a 15% viability threshold at the county level for winning candidates, while Republicans have no such limit.

What Does Iowa’s Electorate Look Like Demographically?

A farming and livestock-focused state, Iowa has a population of just over 3.2 million that is about 90% white, according to the most recent U.S. Census Bureau estimates. Its minority population tends to be concentrated in certain areas throughout the state, including major cities, the Iowa Caucus Project notes. Iowa’s lack of racial and ethnic diversity means that it’s not reflective of the broader American electorate, though its racial demographics are similar to that of the Republican base.

Hispanic or Latino people account for just under 7% of the state’s population, while the Black or African American population sits at 4.4%. The state’s foreign-born population average from 2018-2022 was 5.6%, which is far below the U.S. average of 13.7% during that same timespan. Iowa also has a slight majority-male population.

Overall, 34.5% of registered voters in Iowa were registered with the Republican Party, while 30.3% were registered Democrats, according to recent data from the Independent Voter Project. Just over a third – 34.3% – were unaffiliated.

What Do Iowa Republicans Care About the Most? 

The economy and immigration top the list among 11 issues tested in a 2023 Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll.

Those two topics – specifically referred to as “the economy and inflation” and “immigration and border security” – were rated as “extremely” important by 81% and 80% of respondents, respectively. “Government spending and the deficit” was the next-closest issue chosen at 72%, while the Israel-Hamas war and relations with China were the only other issues 50% of respondents said were extremely important.

The poll, which reached about 400 likely Republican caucusgoers in late October, found 41% of respondents viewed abortion restrictions as extremely important, while 27% placed that same level of importance on ethanol and renewable energy. On the lower end of the spectrum, only about 10% of those polled said climate change and COVID-19 vaccination were of high importance.

How Did Iowa Perform in the 2023 Best States Rankings?

Iowa ranked No. 7 overall in the 2023 Best States rankings, a project in which U.S. News draws on thousands of data points to measure how well states are performing for their citizens. Iowa performs especially well in the opportunity (No. 3) and fiscal stability (No. 8) categories, while also ranking in the top 20 in three other categories, including education.

The state ranked near the top of the opportunity category despite having a below-average median household income in 2021 – about $65,600 compared with more than $69,700 nationally. But the Hawkeye state ranks relatively well for being affordable, and posted a 2021 poverty rate (11.1%) that was less than the national value (12.8%). Both patterns remained true in 2022.

Iowa ranked slightly above the middle of the pack in the Best States health care and natural environment categories. Of all categories in the rankings, the state saw its lowest performance in the economy category (No. 31), in part because Iowa had a negative job growth rate between 2019 and 2022 while the country’s overall job growth rate was positive.

How Did Iowans Vote in Past Caucuses?

Donald Trump, then the incumbent president, won in a landslide over some long-shot challengers in Iowa’s 2020 GOP caucuses.

Iowa Democratic voters that year chose current Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a narrow margin over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Joe Biden – the eventual party nominee and president – finished fourth, directly behind Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Democrats’ results were close in 2016 as well, with former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton edging Sanders by just a handful of votes.

That same year, the GOP caucuses ended with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas winning a plurality of votes. Trump, the eventual president, finished second, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

Notably, over a dozen Republican candidates received votes in the 2016 GOP caucuses. This year, amid fewer candidates, the contest is largely seen as a likely win for Trump and a race for second between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.

Christopher Wolf and Julia Haines contributed reporting.

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