Caste booster shot: Congress strategy behind appointing observers for 3 Delhi seats

10/05/2024

The launch of the Lok Sabha campaign in Delhi for the Congress party was fraught with challenges. Unlike other parties, the Congress spent an excessive amount of time deciding their candidates for the three seats assigned to it under its alliance agreement with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Eventually, the decision was made to field Kanhaiya Kumar from Northeast Delhi, Udit Raj from Northwest Delhi, and Jai Prakash Agarwal from Chandni Chowk.

However, the candidacies of Kanhaiya and Raj were met with disapproval from several quarters, as they are considered outsiders. In a significant blow to the party, state Congress president Arvinder Singh Lovely resigned, citing his disagreement with the Congress-AAP alliance.

To contain the damage, Congress appointed three senior observers to manage election campaigns in these constituencies. Sachin Pilot was named observer for Northeast Delhi, supporting Kanhaiya Kumar, who is pitted against the Bharatiya Janata Party’s Manoj Tiwari. From Northwest Delhi, Udit Raj will be aided by senior leader Chaudhary Birender Singh. Lastly, CP Joshi, former Rajasthan state president, has been assigned to support veteran leader JP Agarwal in the Chandni Chowk Lok Sabha seat.Â

Yet, there is more to these appointments than just experience and seniority. Each of the three observers has been strategically chosen keeping in mind the caste dynamics at play in their respective constituencies. The objective is to give a much-needed impetus to the campaign and help navigate the complexities of caste politics. While hiccups marked the start of Congress’s Lok Sabha campaign, with these appointments, the party hopes to get back on track by easing tensions and bolstering electoral prospects.

SACHIN PILOT AND CASTE ARITHMETIC OF NORTHEAST DELHI

Sachin Pilot, a prominent Congress leader and a massive vote-puller, is making waves across India with his campaigning efforts for the party. Currently, as the Delhi Congress grapples with one of the fiercest electoral battles in the Northeast Lok Sabha constituency, Pilot has been tasked with unifying the party ranks and leading them to victory.

The demographic breakdown of Northeast Delhi brings with it unique challenges and opportunities. Northeast Delhi has the highest number of Muslim voters among all of Delhi’s seven constituencies. Resultantly, given the unified front displayed in the elections by Congress and AAP, the division of Muslim votes, which makes up more than 20 per cent of the total, appears unlikely.

Similarly, the area boasts a significant Dalit population, over 16 per cent, which historically tends to vote for AAP and Congress alike. Considering that both BJP and Congress candidates are Purvanchalis, a division among the votes is anticipated, lending hefty weight to the role of the observer in achieving party unity.

Pilot has taken the bull by the horns and is organising meetings with Northeast Delhi’s senior leaders. But what sets Pilot uniquely apart is his potential influence on one segment of the electorate. As a member of the Gurjar community by birth, Pilot has significant appeal to the caste wielding an estimated eight per cent of the constituency’s total votes.

Historically, the Gurjar community, composed of more than 2 lakh voters in the constituency, has been predominantly BJP supporters. The task now is to win over this substantial voter base for the Congress. Constituencies such as Ghonda and Karawal Nagar hold upwards of 15-20 per cent each of total voters, while sections like Gokulpuri, Burari and Timarpur hold a notable Gurjar voter population between 5-10 per cent.

BIRENDER SINGH’S TASK IN NORTHWEST DELHI

Chaudhary Birender Singh, a veteran politician with extensive experience in Haryana politics, recently left the BJP to rejoin the Congress party. Immediately after this shift, the 78-year-old leader was tasked with the critical mission of winning the only Scheduled Caste reserved constituency of Northwest Delhi, where Udit Raj is the candidate. Singh’s influence in this area is undeniable given that most parts of Northwest Delhi border Haryana, where his political career primarily developed. Moreover, as the maternal grandson of notable Jat leader Sir Chhotu Ram,Â he is considered political royalty.Â

However, this task is steeped in challenges. Since 2014, the BJP has won twice in what used to be a Congress stronghold, making it a massive uphill struggle to regain its former dominance. The nomination of Udit Raj has created further unrest among local leaders such as Rajkumar Chauhan, Surendra Kumar, and Jai Kishan. In fact, Chauhan’s opposition to the nomination led him to stage a protest at the Delhi Congress office, which in turn sparked disciplinary proceedings against him. Subsequently, he defected to the BJP along with Arvinder Singh Lovely.

This constituency is a complex mix of castes, with a significant Dalit population of 21 per cent and a dominant Jat community, particularly in the villages, accounting for 12 per cent. Mundka, Bawana, Narela, Nangloi, and Kirari are the areas with the most substantial number of Jat voters, making them integral to the success of the Congress party.Â

Jats, with their substantial population, wield notable electoral influence in several regions. Mundka, for instance, has the highest voter population of Jats, numbering around 28 per cent of voters. Bawana follows next, where Jats constitute almost 20 per cent of voters. Meanwhile, in Narela, Jats account for 23 per cent of total voters, whereas in Nangloi, the count rests at almost 20 per cent. The trend carries on in the Kirari Assembly as well, with Jat voters contributing almost eight per cent of votes.Â

Given this situation, Birender Singh’s challenge is twofold: bringing the party leaders from different factions together and winning over the Jats of this rural dominant constituency. It is no small task, but given his extensive political background and strategic acumen, there is hope he may emerge critical for Congress’ chances in this political battleground and restore the Congress stronghold.

CAN CP JOSHI BRING BRAHMIN VOTERS TO CONGRESS?

Chandni Chowk, the smallest Lok Sabha constituency in Delhi, holds the minimum number of voters. Nevertheless, its diverse demographics and socio-political dynamics continue to make it a melting pot of complex political equations. Its diversity comes not just from its mixed populace but also from its variety of Assembly constituencies. Among the ten Assembly constituenciesÂ under Chandni Chowk, at least four are dominated by Muslims, while the rest possess a more urban character with a significant concentration of Vaishyas.Â

About 17 per cent of voters in this constituency are part of the Vaishya community, mirroring a similar concentration of the SC community. Punjabi and Muslim voters comprise around 13-14 per cent each, enhancing the complexity of the voting panorama. Keeping these demographics in mind, both the BJP and the Congress strategically fielded Vaishya candidates.

However, within this complex demographic jigsaw, the influence of the Brahmin community is discernible, accounting for roughly seven per cent of Chandni Chowk’s voters. In Assembly constituencies like Trinagar, Shalimar Bagh, Shakur Bast, Sadar Bazar, and Adarsh Nagar, Brahmins constitute 8-12 per cent of the population. The appointment of Joshi, a Brahmin observer, is seen as a strategic move to attract this floating vote bank, which plays a significant role in determining electoral fortunes due to the constituency’s small size.Â

Joshi hails from Rajasthan’s Mewar region, giving him the potential to attract voters from Rajasthan who form a significant part of Chandni Chowk’s trader community. His role could be pivotal in supporting Congress candidate JP Agarwal, considered less controversial than his co-contestants in the party.

This careful calculation and adjustment of demographic factors could be essential for winning this small but crucial Lok Sabha constituency. The socio-political fabric of Chandni Chowk, coupled with its diverse demography, doesn’t just provide a compelling ground for political strategising but reflects the fascinating diversity of Indian democracy as well.

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