Can Donald Trump win Virginia in 2024? A longtime political analyst says that’s ‘highly unlikely’
RICHMOND, Va. (WRIC) — With Election Day now just six months away, former President Donald Trump is eyeing an unlikely win in Virginia.
According to NBC News, Trump’s campaign told donors over the weekend that they believe they can flip Virginia red.
“We are six months ahead of the election,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “Anything is possible.”
Recent polling from Roanoke College shows Trump trailing President Joe Biden by four points in Virginia. For context, that’s much closer than Biden’s 10-point win in Virginia in 2020.
“I don’t think anybody believes it will be close to that 10 points,” Sabato told 8News. “It may be more like Hillary Clinton’s five points in 2016.”
Despite the tightening poll numbers, Sabato says privately Republicans understand they’re still unlikely to win Virginia in the fall.
“They want to try to make the other side believe that they are serious because even if neither side honestly believes that Virginia would go Republican, the Republicans can fool the Democrats into spending money in Virginia,” said Sabato.
Sabato added that even though Republicans swept all three statewide races in 2021, there is one major difference between then and now.
“The difference is turnout,” said Sabato. “Turnout is far below what it is in a presidential year in a gubernatorial year.”
The last Republican presidential candidate to win Virginia was George W. Bush in 2004.
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