Tories will probably ‘take a pasting’ at general election, says Lord Hammond

Lord Hammond also said neither Labour nor the Conservatives are being honest about state of public finances – John Nguyen/JNVisuals

The Conservatives will probably “take a pasting” at the general election, the Tory former chancellor Lord Hammond has said.

According to recent polls, Labour is on course for a landslide victory at the next election.

But Lord Hammond, who led the Treasury between 2016 and 2019, said that tough times were ahead.

“I think the formidable problem is for our democratic politics because I can easily envisage, and the polls are certainly suggesting, that the Conservative Party will take a pasting at the next election,” he told BBC Radio 4.

Lord Hammond also said that neither Labour nor the Conservatives are being honest about the state of the public finances because they are scared of losing votes

He insisted that “what would you cut?” was the most important question to ask political leaders in the run up to the general election.

Lord Hammond also suggested that long-term reform was so difficult because voters wanted to hear “more palatable” arguments and politicians were scared of being kicked out.

‘What would you cut?’

It comes after Suella Braverman, the former home secretary, warned that “for all the cash” funnelled into the NHS, too many patients were still unable to see their GP, and called on the Government to save money by integrating health and social care.

Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s The Today Podcast, Lord Hammond said: “What would you cut? That’s the question to ask any politician – what would you cut?

“And the politician who tells you we don’t need to cut anything, we’re just going to do it by collecting a bit more of the tax that’s due, making our public services a bit more efficient, I’m afraid is not being honest and frank with you.”

Asked by Nick Robinson whether he agreed that neither the Labour nor the Conservatives were being “open enough” with the public, Lord Hammond replied: “I think we have a problem in this country, that the electorate is not really willing to engage with this argument.

“It’s very difficult to ask politicians to present the electorate with choices and challenges which are so stark that their reaction is: ‘Oh well, I’ll vote for somebody who offers me a more palatable option.’

“And unfortunately that’s the challenge of democracy. How do you get big, difficult long-term decisions made in a world where the politicians who are making them have to put themselves up for election every four or five years?”

Public spending currently accounts for more than 40 per cent of Britain’s GDP and Rishi Sunak has faced repeated calls from Tory backbenchers to slash state spending.

‘Failure to incentivise people to work’

On Wednesday night, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, said that reform to the benefits system was “essential” and the current welfare bill “costs you a fortune”.

He said on GB News: “£260 billion a year and it is growing. That’s about 20 per cent of all public expenditure, which falls on rich and poor taxpayers alike.

“And it’s the failure to incentivise people to work that then allows it to become a lifestyle choice paid for by others that seems to me to be the problem.

“Reform is essential and fraud is important but it’s actually a relatively small percentage of the total problem. Only if we get these costs down, reduce that £260 billion can we afford to cut taxes, to unleash Britain’s latent growth and innovation and increase the size of the pie, as Margaret Thatcher used to put it, for everyone. More pie all round.”

A seat-by-seat YouGov poll last week predicted that the Conservatives are on course to suffer their worst general election wipeout on record, with Labour projected to secure a majority of more than 150 seats.

Local elections on May 2 are likely to present a further blow to Mr Sunak, whose leadership of the party has come under increasing pressure amid rumours of plots to oust him from Downing Street before the next national vote.

Mr Sunak has faced a backlash over the lack of new cash for defence in last month’s Budget, despite the Government warning of threats from Russia and China, as well as Iran and North Korea.

His party has also been split on his net zero policy, with some objecting to his decision to delay or dilute a number of key flagship green targets, while others have urged him to abandon the 2050 zero emissions goal altogether.

Play The Telegraph’s brilliant range of Puzzles – and feel brighter every day. Train your brain and boost your mood with PlusWord, the Mini Crossword, the fearsome Killer Sudoku and even the classic Cryptic Crossword.