Robert Walters' Mullally on Jobs Market in China, Hong Kong

Where are we, do you think in the redundancy cycle at this point in time? It’s a good question, Annabelle. And it’s, you know, it’s not, it’s, it’s very hard to call us. I mean, we’ve been speaking to a lot of clients right now who are saying that we’re kind of really at the bottom in terms of where those cuts are. I mean, this has been happening now for almost 2 years. You had a glut of hiring from the beginning of 2021 to the middle part of 2022. And by mid 2022, when we’re speaking to the banks, it was clear that the revenues coming through and the pipelines come through weren’t really supporting the amount of hiring they had done. So I think you have to consider where the where they’re coming from, from a base perspective to where they are now. The sense we’re getting is that there’s probably going to be a little bit more trimming over the next kind of quarter, quarter and a half. But that as we go into the second-half of the year, there will be some improvement. But that isn’t going to necessarily result in hiring anywhere near the levels of 2021, but probably some off cycle hiring. All right, towards the latter part of Q3, maybe early Q4. Yeah, because we talk a lot about about pre COVID levels. I mean, when we go back and, and are we going back to pre 2019 sort of hiring trends or is this about creating sort of a a new normal as well? Yeah. I mean, I suppose the reference point we’re using is 21 and 22 and that was where there was a significant amount of hiring in. Well, it was a kind of a quasi post COVID bump in terms of recruitment there. That’s the kind of benchmark we’re we’re looking at going back to 20/18/2017 isn’t necessary relevant to the world we’re in right now. What impact is this title job market having on salary expectations? I suppose people have become a lot more, a lot more amenable, Paul, to, to making that move there. There are less, less positions out there. And you know, when those supply demand factors favour employers, what you get is a, a, a candidate market that is more open to, to making moves. I mean, if you look at the percentages people are moving, say 2-3 years ago, you’re looking at 2530%, you’re looking now closer to 1015%. And again, in certain parts of investment banking, especially at the senior level, people are moving for kind of, you know, flat rates really they’re not really looking for presentious. They’re looking at where are the opportunities, to what degree. Do you think hiring is really depending at the moment on the state of the Chinese economy? And are you seeing any signs of encouragement there? Again, it is in Hong Kong, especially for investment banking. It is hugely dependent on the Chinese economy and hugely dependent on companies coming to market looking to raise capital through equity or debt issuance or engage in M&A activity there. Again, the sense we’re getting is that we’re we’re asked, you know, they’re calling this the kind of bottle of the market and that things will look to improve over the next couple of quarters. I think with banks though, given how they’ve gone on this cycle of hiring and then immediately, almost immediately having to reduce workforce, they’re going to wait for more than just one quarter of activity before they really start ramping up hiring again. John, are there any specific sectors or roles that you think are most at risk? Clearly anything in the IPO sector given the, given how that market is performed in Hong Kong, you know, equity capital markets, they tend to be more at risk because there’s less activity coming through. But again, we’re, we’re, we are looking, I mean financial services is a very broad spectrum of our of, of firms of activity of functions. I think we tend to hone in on front office investment banking jobs, especially when these jobs cuts, these job cuts come and especially because they are some of the highest earners in the, in the industry as well. We talk a lot about the, the, the, the competition war between Hong Kong and Singapore. Where are we at in that as well? Because a couple of years ago it was that story of everyone was sort of fleeing to Singapore. Now there’s sort of the question mark, are they coming back and, and are you seeing sort of different salary expectations between the two cities as well? I would say that the salaries across Hong Kong and Singapore now are broadly similar. It used to be the case up until probably about three years ago that Hong Kong, there was always a little bit of a premium. Hong Kong was seen as a more expensive place to live for, for a start. And just to kind of the, the, this, the deal size and deal pipeline in Hong Kong was always heavier and, and, and more attractive than Singapore. So as a result, bankers in Hong Kong, you know, commanded a bit of a premium. Now it’s kind of flat in terms of people coming back from Singapore to Hong Kong. I think there’s an appetite for that from individuals. However, the job market itself isn’t supporting that. So it’s, you know, bankers and and financial service professionals will go where the opportunities are. And right now in Hong Kong, there’s a policy of opportunities. So that is preventing that degree of migration that we potentially would be seeing in the healthier market. And is there any sort of preference for other places like Tokyo, for instance, or Dubai even, you know, for people that are are looking or or chasing more Dubai at least low, low tax rate. Yeah, I would say the Middle East and Dubai is a more realistic option for for bankers being out of jobs here in Hong Kong. Tokyo tends to be one, I mean, I suppose a bit a little bit more of a language requirement. 2. It is a very distinct market where specific network and track record and experience is required. I think Dubai is more of a realistic option.