Oil rises 1% as market weighs disappointing economic data against geopolitical risk

A view of oil-well in action during sunset at Elk Hills Oil Field as gas prices on the rise in California, United States on April 14, 2024. Tayfun Coskun | Anadolu | Getty Images

Crude oil futures rose Thursday as the market weighed disappointing U.S. economic growth against a potential geopolitical risk from a looming Israeli invasion of the southern Gaza city of Rafah.

Gross domestic product was much softer than expected in the first quarter, coming in at 1.6% on an annualized basis compared with 2.4% expected by a Dow Jones survey of economists.

The GDP data subdued prices earlier in the session, but traders realize the oil market is tight and the situation in the Middle East remains foggy, said Manish Raj, managing director of Velandera Energy Partners.

Traders are also closing out their short positions after a two-week rollercoaster ride of price volatility, Raj said.

In the Middle East, Israel is launching airstrikes on Rafah as the country makes preparations to invade the city, despite warnings from allies that such an operation would compound the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

Here are Thursday's closing energy prices:

• West Texas Intermediate June contract: $83.57 a barrel, up 76 cents or 0.92%. Year to date, U.S. oil has gained more than 16%.
• Brent June contract: $89.01 a barrel, up 99 cents cents or 1.12%. Year to date, the global benchmark has added more than 15%.
• RBOB Gasoline May contract: $2.75 a gallon, up 0.87%. Year to date, gasoline futures are up about 31%.
• Natural Gas May contract: $1.63 per 1,000 cubic feet, down 0.91%. Year to date, gas is down about 35%.

Oil prices closed lower Wednesday as Goldman Sachs saw a slightly bearish market with global inventories on the rise.

Crude oil futures have shed $2.50 in geopolitical risk premium since last week as tensions between Israel and Iran have eased, according to analysts at Piper Sandler.

Oil prices are currently moving sideways but downside risk seems limited, Jan Stuart, Piper's energy analyst, told clients in a research note.

Piper has reduced the odds of a U.S. recession to a coin flip, Stuart said. Unemployment is low, sentiment is OK and the outlook is not bad, he said. This means growing demand for oil with refiners running closer to capacity and smaller capacity additions, Stuart said.