One American League team from each division with more to gain than lose

Trevor Story

From five World Series contenders with the most pressure to one team from each American League division with more to gain than lose in 2024.

AL EAST: Boston Red Sox (PECOTA projection: fifth place, 79.1 wins)

Boston finished at the bottom of the AL East with 78 victories in each of the last two seasons.  Their pitching staff has potential if newly acquired right-hander Lucas Giolito can find his pre-2020 form (4.88 ERA in ’23).  The bullpen has a lot of unknowns and closer Kenley Jansen is currently dealing with a lat issue.

The key on the offensive side lies with shortstop Trevor Story. If he can stay healthy and return to the high-average/power combo player that he was in Colorado, then this lineup should score enough runs to stay competitive.

Bottom line: In 2021, PECOTA projected Boston to win 80 games.  They ended up with 92 victories and a trip to the ALCS.  A third-place finish or better in this highly competitive division should be considered a success.  The pressure to win is usually immense in Beantown, but with so many question marks on this roster, there is far more to gain by exceeding expectations than there is to lose by finishing in the basement once again.

AL CENTRAL: Detroit Tigers (PECOTA projection: third place, 74.7 wins)

The Tigers looked to be on the up-and-up in 2021 after winning 77 games two years after finishing 47-114. In 2022, they declined with 66 victories and followed that up last season with a 78-84 record.

PECOTA predicts an eighth consecutive losing campaign, and as per usual, expectations are fairly low in the Motor City despite some believing that a few rising stars could change that.

The Tigers lost staff ace, Eduardo Rodriguez, to free agency, and though Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty were added to the rotation, the key to success may very well fall on 27-year-old southpaw Tarik Skubal (7-3, 2.80 ERA in ’23).

The lineup has a solid righty-lefty mix of seasoned veterans and up-and-comers.  If Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene take the next steps toward becoming franchise players, then this offense should be better than projected.

Bottom line: If the Tigers continue to seesaw in the depths of mediocrity, then eventually the boos will be heard.  The pressure is low in ’24, but challenging the Twins for the division crown isn’t out of reach.  A lot to gain and little to lose in Detroit.

AL WEST: Texas Rangers (PECOTA projection: second place, 85.9 wins)

Can a defending World Series champion have more to gain than lose in the following season?  Perhaps, considering that the Rangers Opening Day rotation is led by a group of aging veterans and ace Nathan Eovaldi.  Despite his magnificent 2023 postseason (5-0, 2.95 ERA), Eovaldi has tossed 150 or more frames one time since 2016.

Meanwhile, a key rotation piece from last year, Jordan Montgomery, is a free agent and might re-sign with Texas, which would be a huge boost.  Max Scherzer (back surgery) and Jacob deGrom (Tommy John surgery) are hoping to return for the second half.

The lineup looks good despite Corey Seager (sports hernia) and Josh Jung (calf) in question for Opening Day.  If the offense has no more setbacks, then it could be even better than last year.

Bottom line: PECOTA projects Houston to win the AL West for a fourth consecutive season.  Considering that no team has won back-to-back World Series titles since the Yankees claimed three straight from ’98-’00, would it be a failure if Texas made a deep playoff run again, but lost?  If the Rangers play well, but don’t repeat, they at least prove that 2023 was not an aberration.  That would be a gain for this franchise.

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