BJP, Azad & Apni Party proposed. NC, PDP opposed — implications of delay in Anantnag-Rajouri polling

BJP, Azad & Apni Party proposed. NC, PDP opposed — implications of delay in Anantnag-Rajouri polling

New Delhi: The Election Commission of India’s postponement of voting in Jammu and Kashmir’s Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency to 25 May from 7 May has drawn sharp criticism from the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

These two parties have alleged that the move is a “conspiracy” to “derail” their campaigns, citing the seasonal migration of the Gujjar-Bakarwal community. Several other parties had pushed for the postponement in representations to the EC, including the Apni Party, the Democratic People’s Azad Party (DPAP) — both of which have fielded candidates from the seat — the People’s Conference and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The Anantnag-Rajouri constituency was carved out during the 2022 delimitation exercise from South Kashmir’s Anantnag, Shopian and Kulgam districts and Jammu’s Rajouri and Poonch districts, with one road — Mughal Road — connecting the two regions across the Pir-Panjal range.

The parties that pushed for the postponement had argued that the closure of the Mughal Road since 27 April had disrupted campaigning and prevented people from coming downhill to vote.

While deferring the election Tuesday, the EC said its decision accounted for representations by different political parties to shift the polling date over “various logistic, communication, and natural barrier[s] of connectivity” becoming a “hindrance in campaigning”. The announcement came after the Union territory administration submitted a report on the matter and an analysis of the ground situation.

However, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister and NC leader Omar Abdullah called the EC’s move a “conspiracy” at an event in Anantnag Wednesday, saying, “This decision is a well-thought-out conspiracy because they wanted to snatch the vote of our Gujjar-Bakarwal brothers… They thought the Gujjar-Bakarwals would take their cattle and go higher, and the National Conference would not get their vote.”

The Gujjar-Bakarwals, who have a significant presence in the region, begin their uphill climb after the snow has thawed around the end of April to graze their cattle on slopes where they set up camp in temporary shelters, called dhoke.

Speaking to ThePrint on the condition of anonymity, a senior BJP leader said, “Within the Gujjar-Bakarwal community, Mian Altaf (the NC leader contesting the seat) seems to be the strongest candidate. If the polls are delayed, many people from the community might not be able to vote as they move higher up the hills to their dhokes. This would cause a significant dent in the NC’s vote.”

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti, who is contesting the seat herself, also questioned the EC’s move Wednesday, asking, “Are officials here also hand in glove with the ECI that they gave a wrong report?” She has called the bid to defer the polls “targeted at derailing our campaign”, and the denial of a level playing field.

Speaking too ThePrint, political analyst Zafar Choudhary said deferring the poll looks suspicious and “is not in line with PM Modi’s commitment to deepening democracy”.

“The migration begins by April last week. Given the elections, the Gujjars and Bakarwals decided to delay their movement by 10 days to cast their vote on 7 May. This is probably the first time that Gujjars and Bakarwals find themselves politically relevant,” he said.

“Now, they (Gujjar-Bakarwals) will start moving to the dhokes, but many of them, particularly young men, will return to cast their votes. I suspect over 40 percent of the community members may not be able to cast votes towards the end of May since they will be away in the dhokes,” he added.

Apni Party chief Altaf Bukhari, however, told the media last week, “Mughal Road is closed. The issue is straightforward. It is closed for three days and opens for one day. Roads are not open, so how will it work out? How will people vote? People also live up in the hills. Voting is a right for everyone.”

Former chief minister and DPAP chief Ghulam Nabi Azad has agreed with him, saying, “Today, since the roads are closed, it is taking three days and two nights to go from one district to another within the same constituency.” The election should not happen till the roads open, he said.

According to the J&K traffic police, Mughal Road has been closed since 27 April — first because of landslides and then due to snowfall on the next day. Before being closed, only one-way traffic was operational on the road. This is not unusual on Mughal Road, which remains closed throughout winter because of snowfall.

Why seat is important for PDP, NC & BJP  

While the Congress is in alliance with the NC, the BJP, for a long time, had neither endorsed nor supported any candidate from the Anantnag-Rajouri seat directly.

However, in a rally, Union Home Minister Amit Shah said Wednesday, “In this election, I have come to appeal to the voters of the valley — give vote to whoever you want to but don’t give it to these three dynastic parties. Farooq Sahab [NC patriarch Farooq Abdullah], Mehbooba ji [PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti] and [former Congress president] Sonia Gandhi — all three work for their sons and daughters.”

This leaves three main political parties — the People’s Conference, the DPAP, and the Apni Party — who have been dubbed the ‘B team of the BJP’ by the opposition parties. Only the latter two have fielded candidates from the Anantnag-Rajouri seat.

Zafar said the contest, which looked like a straight one between the NC and the PDP, might become triangular with the polling delay. “The BJP was finding it difficult to convey to the Pahari-speaking people its message of support for the Apni Party. This delay of 19 days is highly significant and has the potential to make the contest a triangular and intense one.”

The Anantnag-Rajouri seat has drawn particular attention this election, considering it was carved out in such a way in the 2022 delimitation that BJP, which is a dominant party in Jammu but has no base in Kashmir, became a player in the seat.

In the old Anantnag constituency in 2019, the BJP came fourth with a mere 10,000 votes — its highest tally since 1998. The seat was won by the NC’s Hasnain Masoodi.

For NC and the PDP, the seat is significant for their political survival as they face the first election since the abrogation of Article 370. It also gives a chance to the two parties to revive their presence in Rajouri and Poonch. But, with both the parties in the Congress-led INDIA bloc, the votes in South Kashmir are likely to be divided.

PDP chief Mufti had won the Anantnag seat in 2014 but vacated it when she became CM in 2016, and no by-election was held in the following three years. Mufti contested the seat again in the 2019 but came third. The Congress was in second position.

While the NC already has a base in south Kashmir, its candidate, former minister Mian Altaf, also draws his strength from tribal communities, especially the Gujjar-Bakarwals, who form a sizeable population in the five districts within the constituency.

Though he comes from Ganderbal in central Kashmir, Altaf is from a family with religious and political influence, with a sizeable following among tribal communities. Between him and his father, the family has held the assembly seat of Kangan continuously since 1967.

The Apni Party has fielded Zafar Iqbal Manhas, the only Pahari in the fray. The DPAP has fielded District Development Council member and advocate Saleem Paray. Another candidate is Punjab resident Baldev Kumar, becoming the first person from outside J&K to contest the Lok Sabha polls in the UT after the Article 370 abrogation.

Voter turnout will be a key factor in the seat. While over 60 percent of the population lives in the Kashmir Valley, Anantnag saw a feeble turnout of 8.98 percent in 2019, according to EC data. The assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch Haveli — then part of the Jammu parliamentary constituency — saw 65 percent and over 70 percent voting, respectively. Despite a smaller population, these two segments may turn out to be kingmakers in such a scenario.

Pahari-speaking people constitute 56 percent of the population in Rajouri-Poonch and Gujjar-Bakarwals 35 percent. The Modi government earlier this year gave the Pahari-speaking people Scheduled Tribe status, which had been a long-pending demand. The Gujjar-Bakarwals, who already had ST status, have raised concerns about the dilution of reservations.

(Edited by Madhurita Goswami)