Bihar | Tejashwi leads the charge

“Our approach is one of santushtika­ran (satisfaction), theirs (the Congress-led opposition) is tushtikaran (appeasement)…” In a 30-minute address replete with rhetoric and promises of a better tomorrow, at Munger on April 26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi did not pull his punches. From Bihar’s “dark ages” under Lalu Prasad and his Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) to the Congress’s “ominous gaze” on the common man’s property (via the much hyped ‘inheritance tax’), the BJP’s campaigner-in-chief whip­ped up enough bogeys to make a strong pitch for the NDA.

Like the past few times, the saffron party’s campaign in Bihar this time, too, leans heavily on the appeal of PM Modi. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has held public meetings and road shows, but his rhetoric is limited to critiquing the RJD—his ally in government till a few months back—and, like Modi, in recalling memories of Lalu’s jungle raj. However, much water has flowed under the Gandhi Setu since then and making the narrative stick is an onerous task.

In fact, it is Lalu’s son and RJD chief Tejashwi Yadav who seems to have a more secure grip on the poll narrative now. By April 29, the 34-year-old leader had addressed an impressive 75 public meetings where the talk mostly revolved around jobs and empowering the youth, bread-and-butter issues that resonate with voters.

As the stakes rise with every passing week (Bihar is one of the states that will still be voting in the last phase), Tejashwi has also intensified his criticism of the prime minister, dubbing him a “manufacturer and wholesale distributor of lies”. The young RJD scion seems poised to seize the momentum at times, but then a chasm stares him in the face—overcoming the reluctance of certain sections for the RJD and the Yadavs, the party’s main support base and the dominant single-largest caste in Bihar.

News that the momentum may be with Tejashwi has evidently reached the opposing camp. PM Modi was in Gaya in late April where, after the usual “jungle raj” jibes, he changed tack and addressed the “smart yuva with their smartphones”. “Tell me,” he said, “can you charge your smartphone with a lantern [the RJD symbol]? These people, stuck in the lantern era, will never allow Bihar to progress.” Tejashwi’s riposte did not take long to come. “Modiji,” he wrote on X, “even a mud-smeared lotus (the BJP’s symbol) cannot charge a mobile phone”, adding that a lantern at least “provides light”. And that was not all. From the RJD chief’s meat-eating habits to ridiculing Lalu for his many children to the Opposition going after people’s gold and mangalsutras, it was soon clear that no topic is off the table this poll season.

The Challenger

Just before he winds up his speech in Hajipur on April 29, Tejashwi pauses significantly. “Chup chaap…,” he chants, and the crowd boisterously fills in the rest, “Lalten chhaap (Quietly, press the lant­ern sign)”. This is not just a slogan but a subtle message as well. Tejashwi’s intentions are clear: he seeks to rally support for the RJD while eschewing any overly assertive behaviour, a stereotype often associated with his caste cohort, the Yadavs.

Tejashwi’s companion on the campaign trail these days is often Mukesh Sahani, chief of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), a recent partner in the mahagathbandhan. Sahani opens the meetings, where he never fails to remind the audience how the BJP poached his three MLAs. Tejashwi picks up the thread, saying the BJP had not just taken away their MLAs, but also “hijacked” their “chachaji” (Nitish Kumar).

In a strategic move, Tejashwi avoids directly criticising the CM in public speeches, despite the latter’s vehement attacks on his family. Instead, the RJD chief often says, “Jahan rahein, swasth rahein (Wherever he is, he should stay healthy),” while referring to him, in an evident effort to garner sympathy from the communities that back Nitish.

At his meticulous campaign meetings, Tejashwi has revealed a leadership persona that has taken everyone by surprise. From his shrewd mimicry of Modi’s folksy “Bhaiyoo-behno” collo­quialism in Vaishali to his rapport with the crowd in Khagaria, where he prompted them to reflect on the changes wrought during Modi’s decade-long tenure, Tejashwi has dis­played an uncanny ability to connect with his constituents.

At rallies, he mocks the PM and lists the scores of unrealised promises from the BJP’s 2014 and 2019 campaigns. Often, he even serenades the crowd with a brief ditty or a verse from the film song, ‘Jeena yahaan, marna yahaan’, to underscore his commitment to the Bihar cause. The state’s youthful electorate, especially the 18-29 age group that comprises over 20 per cent of the voters, seem to hang on to his every word. Hundreds of them can be seen recording Tejashwi’s speeches on their mobile phones. On May 1, Tejashwi took to the social media platform X to share a video clip from a public meeting where he’s seen playing recordings of Modi’s past speeches, the intention behind to highlight the “jhumlas”. The RJD has also unveiled a campaign song, ‘Apna Tejashwi’, which is also gaining traction.

Tejashwi’s annus mirabilis was 2020 and the main event the Bihar assembly polls where he led the RJD alliance against the Janata Dal (United)-BJP combine and emerged as the single largest party with 75 MLAs (in the 243-seat house). He burnished that image when he served as deputy CM for 17 months from August 2022, after Nitish returned to the mahagathbandhan. From conducting late-night inspections at hospitals to generating some 500,000 government jobs, Tejashwi’s reputation grew in the one and a half years he was in the job. Nitish may now brush aside his ex-deputy’s contributions as “inconsequential”, but public sentiment seems to be tilting in Tejashwi’s favour.

It shows in the RJD leader’s poll camp­aign too, with Tejashwi single-handedly taking on the NDA’s touring roster of heavyweights on a daily basis. Sahani, whose VIP is fighting in three seats— Gopalganj, Motihari and Jhanjharpur—is with him. The VIP’s support base is among the Nishad, Mallah and Sahni sub-castes listed under the EBCs or the Extremely Backward Classes, which make up nearly five per cent of Bihar’s population.

Tejashwi and Sahani, 43, have also become quite a hit pair on social media, with odd posts such as the one showing both of them eating fried fish with a side dish of chillies during a chopper ride receiving thousands of likes. Sahani is even heard commenting that “Bahuton ko mirch lagega (Many will feel aggrieved)” and it actually panned out that way, with senior BJP leaders rebuking the RJD leader for having non-vegetarian food during Navratras and indulging in the “politics of appeasement”. Tejashwi hit back saying the clip was from an earlier date and he had only put it out to expose his critics’ “low IQ”.

Despite the RJD’s entrenched Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) voter base, who together make up around 32 per cent of per cent of the population, Tejashwi has realised that it might not be enough to defeat the NDA in a bipolar contest. In fact, he has been quite pragmatic, fielding Kushwaha and EBC leaders in key seats like Purnia, Aurangabad and Nawada. This includes a number of controversial leaders, including Anita Devi, wife of convicted Kurmi don Ashok Mahto, against former JD(U) president Lalan Singh in Munger; popular leaders Abhay Kushwaha in Aurangabad and Shrawan Kushwaha in Nawada; and upper caste strongman Munna Shukla in Vaishali. Jitendra Kumar, who runs a private school in Panchanpur, Gaya, and has been an NDA voter all through, now believes the RJD’s decision to expand their social base and field Kushwaha candidates in Aurangabad and Nawada has “broken the ice” with his community (who are otherwise seen as NDA supporters).

The RJD strategy is supported by the 2023 Bihar caste survey, which showed that OBCs (27 per cent) and EBCs (36 per cent) together constitute over 63 per cent of the state’s 130 million population. The party is fielding 23 candidates, of whom nine are Yadav, two Muslim, and three Kushwaha leaders. Some 25 per cent of the candidates are women, Lalu’s two daughters among them.

The NDA Numbers

For the BJP, Bihar is key to its “char sau paar” battle cry. The state has been a fertile ground, delivering 31 and 39 seats (out of 40) to the NDA in the past two LS elections. The return of Nitish and his JD(U) should come as a welcome boost, but there’s no denying who is the top dog in the alliance now. For the first time, the BJP is contesting 17 seats, one more than the JD(U)’s 16. The alliance has three other parties—Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which gets five seats, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), with one each.

But though the NDA may appear to have the upper hand, it won’t be smooth sailing. Nitish’s flip-flops between the mahagathbandhan and the NDA are finally taking a toll, as is his image as sushasan babu (man of good governa­nce). So, while his traditional Luv-Kush (Kurmi-Kushwaha) and EBC vote banks may stand by him, Nitish perhaps needs the BJP more than the other way around.

The CM’s conspicuous absence from Modi’s rallies in Gaya and Purnia in mid-April also fuelled speculation about a possible rift in the alliance since he had been a fixture at the earlier rallies in Bihar. He did finally make it to the Munger rally on April 26, sharing the stage with the PM as they rallied support for Lalan Singh, but the rumour mills are still active. Meanwhile, it’s still not clear how the NDA will leverage Chirag Paswan’s Scheduled Caste (SC) votes, particularly the six per cent Paswan voters. The JD(U) and LJP have a history of acrimony and it’s anybody’s guess how the vote transfer will unfold.

THE BIG RACE: PM Modi with Bihar CM Nitish Kumar, Dy CM Samrat Choudhary of the BJP and the LJP’s Chirag Paswan (Photo: ANI)

The Modi Show

“Modiji ko Jai Shri Ram”, the giant speakers belt out as the fervent crowd gathered at Munger’s Safiabad ground on April 26 responds resoundingly. Women inside the barricaded front rows clutch BJP flags and wave cutouts of the prime minister in a show of unwavering support. The roar grows louder as Modi takes the stage. The shift in the crowd’s response, from the muted enthusiasm during Nitish’s address, leaves little doubt as to who the star of the show is.

In Bihar, it’s Modi who will bring in the votes for the NDA. The alliance is pinning its hopes on the forward castes, a few EBC cohorts and Nitish’s Luv-Kush combine to take them across the finish line. Allies Chirag and Manjhi are expected to deliver the Dalit votes.

The larger NDA plan is to fall back on a longstanding social divide in Bihar—the belief that, wary of Yadav dominance, sections of the populace will still refrain from supporting the RJD. Moreover, the Congress is an albatross weighing Tejashwi down. To keep things in context, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has addressed just one public meeting in Bihar so far, in Bhagalpur on April 20. Compared to the BJP’s galaxy of star campaigners, that’s a poor show.

Conversations with a diverse array of voters in Bihar underscore the enduring significance of Modi and the Ram temple. The NDA is also banking on a sizeable portion of the beneficiaries from welfare schemes like the distribution of five kilos of free grains and crop assistance to farmers.

The NDA and the mahagathbandhan have both crafted competing narratives. The low voter turnout in the first two phases—attributed both to the scorching sun and general listlessness of the public—has made it difficult for even experts to predict the results. While the NDA touts Modi’s decisive leadership, the Grand Alliance spotlights unemployment and rural distress. The outcome hinges on which narrative resonates most with voters.

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