Opinion | Venezuela’s War Games Against Guyana

Is Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro preparing to annex the Essequibo region of Guyana? Or is sending Venezuelan troops and military equipment to his neighbor’s border an attempt to distract from his domestic troubles? It could be both, as it was for the Argentine dictatorship that started and lost a war with Britain in the Falkland Islands in 1982.

A military lunge for the Essequibo would be high risk for Mr. Maduro. But if his threats force more negotiations with the U.S. over rules for the 2024 presidential election, it could work for him. With international pressure rising to restore democracy, distraction is his friend.

A final ruling on the decades-old territorial dispute—concerning two-thirds of Guyana—is due this spring from the International Court of Justice in the Hague. After a mid-December meeting, Mr. Maduro and Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali issued a joint declaration pledging to “not threaten or use force against one another in any circumstances.”

But Mr. Maduro wants to keep the issue roiling. The Venezuelan military has boasted on social media about new projects in the region, and recent reports showed increased Venezuelan military activity. The Biden Administration has downplayed the news.

The Miami Herald reported that “the satellite images showed fewer than 250 personnel, three patrol ships with nine staffers, and two short-range surface-to-air systems deployed to the border region, ‘which are unable to target anything in Guyanese airspace,’ one National Security Council official told” the paper. “We see no significant Venezuelan military buildup underway near Essequibo.” It’s questionable that Venezuela’s degraded military could sustain a conflict.

Guyana has a small military. But the U.S. is providing military advice, and the Guyana government says it is buying helicopters, planes, drones and radar technology to improve its defenses. The British navy deployed a warship to Guyana in late December to engage in training exercises with its former colony.

Even if Mr. Maduro’s large army walks over its smaller neighbor, it would be tough to sustain Venezuelan rule. The locals have no interest in being governed by Mr. Maduro. He also wouldn’t get his hands on offshore oil by seizing land. China’s CNOOC International and ExxonMobil signed contracts last year with Guyana, and if they find oil Mr. Maduro would have to send ships to seize their assets.

Mr. Maduro also faces opposition to an invasion from his usual allies in the English-speaking Caribbean, stalwart friends of Cuba that have deep cultural and political ties to English-speaking Guyana. Havana relies on them for votes at the United Nations, which is why Fidel Castro long instructed his Venezuelan protégé, Hugo Chávez, to leave Guyana alone. Even Brazil, led by leftist President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva, has told Mr. Maduro to back off.

Mr. Maduro has a problem at home in popular opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won a primary last year with 90% of the vote and is a heavy favorite to win a fair election this year. He has barred her candidacy, drawing criticism from the European Parliament and disapproval from Brasília.

The U.S. has said it will reimpose sanctions on oil and gas investments and sales in April. Like Argentine Gen. Galtieri in the 1980s, war drums and nationalism are a last resort.