Biggest Concern: Can Ryan Day get top-level quarterback play in 2024?

From now until preseason camp starts in August, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about our Biggest Concerns. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our Biggest Concerns here.

Ohio State heads into the summer with the quarterback position officially still up for grabs, although Ryan Day may have a good idea of who will be running his offense this fall. The top two candidates are Kansas State transfer Will Howard and Devin Brown, with a seemingly extremely outside shot that one of Lincoln Kienholz, Julian Sayin, or Air Noland will claim the spot.

The Buckeyes are coming off a subpar year in terms of quarterback play after Kyle McCord’s one and only year as QB1 in the OSU offense. That sounds like an absolutely insane statement when you figure that McCord completed 229 of 348 passes (65.8%) for 3,170 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only six interceptions. But that’s how high the bar is for Ryan Day’s quarterbacks in Columbus.

While C.J. Stroud may be a difficult act to follow, it’s not like McCord’s numbers were terrible. He could have been more efficient on third downs, late in games, or in the bigger games, but it was his first season starting at the collegiate level, and not everyone adjusts at a Stroud level.

Stroud completed 258 of 389 passes in 2022 (66.3%) for 3,688 yards and 41 touchdowns against six interceptions. The true difference between Stroud and McCord doesn’t show in the numbers, aside from maybe touchdowns, but Stroud was a veteran starter by 2022. Where Stroud made a difference was in confidence. It never seemed like a difficult proposition for Stroud and his receivers to find a way to pick up a fourth-and-10, whereas a third-and-3 situation under McCord brought with it an unusual (for OSU fans) level of angst.

Without Marvin Harrison, Jr., who has gone on to the Arizona Cardinals, the onus will be on Emeka Egbuka to step up and become the man at WR1. Similarly, sophomore Carnell Tate and (likely) true freshman Jeremiah Smith will need to step up and make plays for Howard/Brown. Even if they do, that’s not a guarantee of top-level quarterback play. Ohio State’s wide receiver talent is largely going to be less experienced than usual this coming season.

The quarterback is going to have to make plays on third downs, under duress, and when the game is on the line. That’s where the true measure of whether the quarterback play is at a high level will show. Is Howard/Brown delivering a fresh set of downs inside the 20 or will Day have to send the kicker onto the field? When the game is on the line, will the quarterback have the swagger to get out there, take charge of the game, and say “I got this”? If so, the numbers should look a bit more like Stroud’s than McCord’s.

There isn’t enough data to confidently predict what will happen, which is what makes this my biggest concern heading into 2024. Brown hasn’t stayed healthy long enough to get a good look at him. Howard hasn’t played in a program with annual national championship expectations (not aspirations…expectations). No one else has nearly enough experience to be able to confidently count on them.

If the touchdowns are down around McCord’s 24 again in 2024, it’s likely the Buckeyes will fall short of their lofty goals. However, if Howard/Brown can deliver a 65% completion percentage, around 30 to 35 touchdowns, and single-digit interceptions, Ohio State’s offense can operate at a high level.