BI: Fitch miliki keyakinan kuat terjaganya stabilitas makroekonomi RI

BI: Fitch miliki keyakinan kuat terjaganya stabilitas makroekonomi RI

Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo . ( ANTARA/Agatha Olivia/aa. )

Jakarta (ANTARA) – Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Perry Warjiyo menyatakan lembaga pemeringkat Fitch tetap memiliki keyakinan kuat atas terjaganya stabilitas makroekonomi dan prospek ekonomi jangka menengah Indonesia karena telah kembali mempertahankan peringkat utang alias sovereign credit rating Indonesia.

Keyakinan tersebut di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi global yang masih tinggi, peningkatan risiko stagflasi seiring kenaikan suku bunga kebijakan secara global di tengah ekonomi yang baru pulih, serta makin meluasnya kebijakan proteksionisme yang ditempuh oleh berbagai negara.

Dalam keterangan resmi di Jakarta, Selasa, ia menyebutkan keyakinan Fitch didukung oleh kredibilitas kebijakan yang tinggi dan sinergi bauran kebijakan yang kuat antara BI dan pemerintah.

Fitch mempertahankan sovereign credit rating Indonesia pada BBB (investment grade) dengan outlook stabil pada 28 Juni 2022, dengan mempertimbangkan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dalam jangka menengah yang baik serta rasio utang pemerintah terhadap PDB yang rendah.

Di sisi lain, Fitch melihat masih ada beberapa tantangan yang perlu direspons, yaitu rasio pembiayaan eksternal yang meningkat, penerimaan pemerintah yang masih rendah, serta beberapa indikator struktural seperti PDB per kapita dan tata kelola yang relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara lain pada peringkat yang sama.

Ke depan, BI akan terus mencermati perkembangan ekonomi dan keuangan global dan domestik, merumuskan dan melaksanakan langkah-langkah yang diperlukan untuk memastikan terjaganya stabilitas makroekonomi dan stabilitas keuangan, termasuk penyesuaian lebih lanjut arah kebijakan, serta terus memperkuat sinergi dengan pemerintah untuk mempercepat proses pemulihan ekonomi nasional.

Pada laporan yang dirilis hari ini, Fitch menilai pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia akan berlanjut didukung kinerja sektor jasa yang membaik dan ekspor yang kuat, sehingga diperkirakan tumbuh 5,6 persen di tahun ini dan meningkat menjadi 5,8 persen pada 2023.

Dalam jangka menengah, pertumbuhan ekonomi diperkirakan mencapai 5,8 persen pada 2024, didukung oleh dampak positif dari implementasi Undang-Undang Cipta Kerja terhadap kenaikan investasi, serta komitmen pembangunan infrastruktur yang terus berlanjut.

Pada sisi eksternal, Fitch memperkirakan transaksi berjalan akan mencatat defisit yang rendah yaitu sebesar 0,4 persen dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) pada 2022 dan meningkat menjadi satu persen dari PDB pada 2023.

Terkait perkembangan harga, Fitch melihat adanya risiko kenaikan tekanan, meski meyakini bahwa inflasi masih akan tetap terjaga dalam kisaran sasaran dua persen sampai empat persen.

Pada sisi fiskal, Fitch melihat komitmen pemerintah untuk menurunkan defisit Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) menjadi di bawah tiga persen pada 2023 akan tercapai. Proyeksi defisit fiskal tahun 2022 diperkirakan turun menjadi 4,3 persen dari PDB.

Di tengah harga komoditas global yang meningkat, pemerintah telah mengalokasikan anggaran subsidi yang lebih tinggi untuk menjaga daya beli masyarakat. Namun demikian, kenaikan subsidi tersebut disertai oleh peningkatan penerimaan yang ditopang oleh harga komoditas yang tinggi.

Dengan perkembangan tersebut, Fitch memperkirakan utang pemerintah akan menurun secara bertahap dari level 44,2 persen dari PDB pada 2022, jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara lain pada peringkat yang sama yakni dalam kisaran 55,9 persen PDB.

Selain itu, ketergantungan Indonesia atas pembiayaan eksternal juga lebih rendah yang diindikasikan oleh kepemilikan investor asing atas surat berharga pemerintah dalam rupiah yang menurun.

Dukungan BI dalam pembiayaan defisit fiskal melalui pembelian surat berharga pemerintah dipandang FItch dapat membantu mengelola beban bunga, tetapi perlu ditekankan bahwa dukungan tersebut akan berakhir pada 2022 sehingga tidak menimbulkan risiko bagi kredibilitas kebijakan moneter yang selanjutnya akan mempengaruhi persepsi positif investor.

Pewarta: Agatha Olivia Victoria
Editor: Slamet Hadi Purnomo
COPYRIGHT © ANTARA 2022

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