Reform UK’s rise may tempt Sunak into moving further right. Let the Netherlands be a cautionary tale

‘Geert Wilders has manipulated issues around immigration to his advantage against the VVD’s Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius.’ Wilders and Yeşilgöz-Zegerius attend a debate in Eindhoven, November 2023. Photograph: Robin Utrecht/EPA

A recent YouGov poll marked a pivotal moment in British politics. For the first time, Reform UK was shown to have edged ahead of the Conservatives among male voters. As Labour solidifies its base, the rise of Reform is clearly to the detriment of the Conservative party. Overall, Tory support has dwindled to levels not witnessed since Liz Truss’s tenure, with fewer than one in five voters inclined to vote for them.

This shift, while unique in the UK, mirrors trends across the Channel. It could join a growing number of European countries in which the far right has eclipsed the mainstream right, including France, Italy and Sweden. But for Conservative politicians and advisers hoping to win back support from Reform by moving further to the right, one country emerges as a cautionary tale: the Netherlands.

In July 2023, the centre-right Volkspartij voor Vrijheid (VVD) of the outgoing prime minister, Mark Rutte, chose to dismantle its governing coalition, citing insurmountable conflicts over policies aimed at managing and deterring asylum seekers. Soon after, Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius, stepping in as the new party leader, declared an end to “murky compromises” on immigration and proclaimed the lifting of the decade-old cordon sanitaire with the far-right Partij voor de Vrijheid (PVV) in order to reinforce her pledge.

Immigration emerged as the linchpin of the VVD party manifesto, prominently featuring in the title and the opening chapter. The manifesto included a large number of proposals specifically targeting asylum seekers, ranging from invasive phone checks to a move towards providing even more austere accommodation. By taking this action, the VVD was weaving far-right ideologies into the fabric of mainstream politics.

The electoral rationale seemed simple: if the VVD could be seen to prioritise and adopt a tougher stance on immigration, estranged voters would return from populist rivals. The Dutch counterpart of the UK Tory party thought it could beat the far right by emulating it. But this approach spectacularly backfired.

The far-right PVV secured an unparalleled triumph in November’s Dutch elections, more than doubling its vote share, while the VVD, after 13 years at the helm, fell to third place. With immigration pushed to the forefront, voters chose the party with the original anti-asylum policies rather than the copycat.

Sound familiar? The Conservative party is treading the same path. When he became prime minister, Rishi Sunak vowed to “stop the boats”, and has put sending asylum seekers to Rwanda at the top of his agenda. In December, the home secretary, James Cleverly, announced a five-point immigration reduction plan. Now the government reportedly wants to achieve the biggest reduction in immigration figures ever recorded before the election.

As Reform gains ground, Sunak and his Conservative party seem to find it increasingly tempting to double down on “tough” immigration policies in a bid to woo back voters. This would be a grave mistake, however, because the Dutch example is not a one-off. Research suggests that when mainstream parties shift to the right on immigration, it does nothing to reduce support for the far right. If anything, the far right is the winner because its position and rhetoric becomes normalised. When immigration is salient, mainstream right parties, in particular, lose more voters to the far right.

In addition, when mainstream parties normalise the far right, other factors become more important when choosing between them, such as the party leader. Geert Wilders, with his 25-year tenure as a Dutch MP and his status as longest-sitting party leader, skilfully manipulated issues around immigration and housing to his advantage against the novice Yeşilgöz-Zegerius. Again, the parallel with Britain is striking: Nigel Farage has spent decades roaming the halls of Brussels and is ready to exploit any misstep by Sunak. Farage was a founder member of the UK Independence party (Ukip) while Sunak was still at school. In 2018, he founded the Brexit party, later rebranded as Reform UK, before stepping back from frontline politics in 2021. But a scenario where Farage returns – possibly before the next general election – would be particularly threatening for the Tories.

Britain’s first past the post system has always been viewed as helping established parties fend off the far right. As a result, in many seats in the coming election, voters will still see a vote for Reform as a “wasted vote”. But first past the post systems have a tipping point. Even if the Conservative party does not lose a seat to Reform, losing votes to it could allow Labour to win. Such a scenario – already visible in many predictions – could lead to the near-eradication of the Tories.

Even if the Tories maintain a lead over Reform in the election, its next leader will face a challenge from the far-right on two fronts: from outside and inside. There is a genuine possibility of the Tories falling prey to Farage-like figures from within the party, echoing the fate of the Republican party in the US. The Tories’ strategies are emboldening such figures.

In more and more countries in Europe, far-right parties have become the main force on the right. Until very recently, it seemed unlikely that the UK would join this list. If the Conservative party continues on its current trajectory, that may change faster than we think.

Tarik Abou-Chadi is an associate professor of European politics at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. Simon van Teutem is a writer for De Correspondent and a PhD candidate in politics at the University of Oxford.