NATO vastly underestimated Russia's ability to resupply its army with troops and ammo, general says

• NATO has vastly underestimated Russia’s capabilities, a top general said.
• Russia can make millions of shells a year and recruit hundreds of thousands of troops, he said.

NATO has significantly underestimated Russia’s capacity to replenish its armed forces with personnel and ammunition, a senior general said.

Martin Herem, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces, told Bloomberg that new intelligence on Russia’s capabilities has sparked a reassessment in the military alliance, as well as a flurry of cautions to prepare for a protracted conflict.

Contrary to earlier predictions, Russia can now produce several million artillery shells a year and recruit hundreds of thousands of soldiers, he said.

“A lot of people thought they couldn’t go beyond that — today, the facts tell us otherwise,” Herem told Bloomberg.

He added: “They can produce even more — many times more — ammunition.”

In July 2023, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the formal head of the UK’s armed forces, said that Russia could “at best” produce one million shells a year, per the Financial Times.

The UK Ministry of Defence estimated last December that Russia could need up to 10 years to replenish its army.

But that narrative has shifted over the last few months, with military commanders, analysts, and NATO officials warning of Russia’s increasing capacities.

In September 2023, an unnamed Western official warned of Russia’s ability to make two million artillery shells a year, per Reuters.

And Christopher Cavoli, the commander of US European Command, said in April 2023 that despite significant losses in Ukraine, Russia’s ground forces were bigger than when it invaded Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Congress have stalled efforts to provide more aid to Ukraine, and the EU looks set to miss its target of sending a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024.

As a result, there are fewer supplies available on the front lines, and Ukrainian forces are being forced to reduce their combat activities.

As recently as Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the war in Ukraine had become a “battle for ammunition.”

He called on Western allies to renew efforts to replenish Ukraine’s stockpiles.

In a group interview at Davos last week with news outlets including Business Insider, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned that a lack of Western assistance would result in a “very large” shortfall in air-defense missiles, a lack of artillery, and a lot of deaths and injuries.

“Ukraine will struggle, Ukraine will be weaker, and this will be an opportunity for Russia to invade us,” Zelenskyy said, appearing to refer to a broader conquest of his country.

He added: “And as soon as they have invaded us, believe me, it will be a war between NATO and the Russian Federation.”