Backdrop for stocks is still strong thanks to earnings, says Gunjan Banerji
How do you see today shaping up? What’s your WEX word of the day? Good morning, Frank. My WEX word of the day is momentum. We had a really powerful rally to end the week on Friday with a lockstep rally in stocks, the government bonds. And I think it’s going to be really interesting to see if that continues, especially in a week. That’s kind of light on economic data. As you mentioned, we do have some earnings. We do have some Fed speakers. We don’t have the type of big release like a jobs number. And on Friday, we saw a lot of even mania creeping into the market with GameStop shares rallying around 30% some really curious to see if that momentum continues in the next few trading days. So we just talked about it just now. The S&P and the NASDAQ coming off their best day in two months following that softer than expected jobs report. It was a big mess. It was 25% below estimates. In your mind, has this finally settled the argument, whether it’s earnings or the Fed that’s driving the market? Does it, does it now seem pretty clear that it’s the Fed because we saw that big stock pop because people thought we might be closer to a cut? You know, Frank, I do think it’s both. What investors have been telling me is the backdrop for for stocks is still strong and that’s in part because of these strong earnings that we’ve seen best growth since 2022 and kind of this Goldilocks thesis that investors walk into the year with is still intact. I mean it’s taking a look at futures. Futures tied to the Russell this morning are up 70 basis points, well above, you know gains for the S&P 500 for the Dow. That tells you that that economic recovery, that strong economy trade is still underway this morning. So we got a bunch of Fed speakers speaking this week. Does that mean that they won’t be market movers if in your thesis that it’s more of the earnings which again are 10% higher year over year are what’s really driving the market? I do think it’s both. I think it’s important to remember that you know this game of chicken that investors have had with the Fed investors keep losing it, right. We’re we’re now down to two maybe zero rate cuts, but that doesn’t seem to move the needle for stocks and we’ve still seen the stock market be able to withstand and kind of go higher despite rate cuts being priced out. OK. Part of that’s the consumer. I know you’re watching the consumer. So I just been looking quarter to date I see consumer discretionary and consumer staples are outperforming the broader market staples. Just a little bit. Just buy a hair. What are you looking at when it comes to the consumer wish and investors be aware of? You know, I do think that there have been some warning signs about the consumer. It has been an overall strong earning season analyst increasing their estimates. But take Starbucks, you know, their disastrous report last week saying Americans are growing more more discerning about where they’re getting their coffee. McDonald’s saying people are turning to the grocery stores a little bit more. So that’s one key thing to watch in trading this week.