Australia's most trusted Covid professor declares that this year's war against the virus is nearly over and explains why cases are about to drop even more

Government modelling says Australia is through worst of this years Covid pandemic Country's figures dropped by nearly 10,000 cases in the past week alone Professor Peter Collignon said it's 'likely' Australia has seen the worst of it as we head towards summer

A leading Australian microbiologist said this year’s war against Covid in Australia is approaching its end as cases plummet and the country moves towards warmer seasons.

Associate Professor James Wood, the NSW Government’s leading modeller, forecasted the nation had seen the worst of the pandemic after cases dropped by nearly 10,000 in one week.

Last week Australia saw 35,659 new infections on Tuesday, but this week that figure was just 26,746 – about a 30 per cent drop.

Professor Peter Collignon, the country’s most trusted voice through the Covid crisis, said he believes the modelling is ‘likely to be right’ and pointed to high rates of community transfer as the critical element.

‘We’ve got high vaccination rates, but we’ve also had 70 to 80 per cent of the population infected in the last six months,’ Professor Collignon told Sky News.

‘I would think over the next four to five months, with spring and summer, unless there’s a completely new variant to appear, and that doesn’t look the case, we’re in good shape.’

A leading Australian microbiologist said Australia's Covid war is approaching its end as cases plummet and the country moves towards the warmer season

A leading Australian microbiologist said Australia’s Covid war is approaching its end as cases plummet and the country moves towards the warmer season


There were fears new variants and subvariants could slip through vaccine protection and prolong the pandemic; however strong immunity from natural infection combined with booster shots appears to have combatted new strains.

Professor Collignon said ‘hybrid immunity’, the combination of vaccines and community infection, meant Australia had ‘very good protection’ against the current Covid climate.

‘The trick will be to see what happens in the UK, US and Canada, what happens in their winter months.

‘I think this will be a winter disease, so we’ll see what happens there, but there’ll be much, much less than what we’ve seen,’ he told Sky.

The microbiologist said Australians were also getting second infections ‘much less often’ than their first, but those who did were experiencing milder symptoms.

‘They do occur and will continue to, but overall they occur less,’ Professor Collingnon said.

Last week Australia saw 35,659 new infections on Tuesday, but this week that figure was just 26,746 - about a 30 per cent drop

Last week Australia saw 35,659 new infections on Tuesday, but this week that figure was just 26,746 – about a 30 per cent drop

Vaccine manufacturers are pushing a fourth dose for countries experiencing high cases around the world, but the professor said there simply wasn’t enough data to suggest whether another jab was necessary.

‘Everybody needs their third dose, particularly if they’ve not had an infection. We just need to wait and see on the fourth,’ he said.

‘If you’re a 30 or 40-year-old, you get protection for a few months. Your risk of getting serious diseases is already lower with the vaccine.

‘For people over 65, your immune system doesn’t work as a 30-year-old, but we’ll have to wait and see on fourth shots.’

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