Australia central bank likely to hold rates: Deep Data Analytics

I don’t think RBA is going to do anything. I don’t think they’ll be doing anything for a while. I think the, the data suggests globally, I mean they’ve outsourced the inflation quite to US Fed and US Fed has pretty much flagged that they’re going to be on hold for a while. The market tends to jump up and down. There’s going to be more cuts, less cuts. It’s pretty much one to two cuts somewhere in the back end of this year. And I think I’ll be able to follow the same cycles. We’re on hold for a period of time and see how inflation plays out. I suspect inflation is going to remain sticky. So we’re going to be on hold. I don’t think RBA is going to do anything, but then you got the budget coming, which is going to see some stimulatory effect. So that will further put pressure on RBA to remain on hold. Do you, I don’t know necessarily if this is like a a 2024 problem or even you know a first half of 2025 problem. But you know you got the banks that are allocating capital back to you know shareholders got today out of the, you know, Westpac 2 1/2 billion odd. And you know you’ve got the the extra dividends and everything of that ilk. Is is that prudent considering that you know, Australia’s far more rate sensitive. There’s we’ve already seen just in the last retail sales that consumption started to get hit. You’ve got to imagine that the pressures coming on thick and fast for all the people that are on, you know, floating rate loans that. It could be incredibly problematic next year for a raft of banks and the broader economy at large. Yeah, I I think we’re probably close to the peak cycle for banks. I mean you’ve seen the result from Macquarie which is probably the the default option outside the big four. And even Macquarie has had a, you know, a couple of weak results and they’re basically saying they’re going to come, you know, full throttle at mortgage broking sort of thing. So if they’re going to go into the mortgage battle, all the banks are going to have to fight against them and I wouldn’t want to go against Macquarie. So the big four banks have got real challenges ahead. I think Westpac, you know, if you look at outside CBA. The other three banks over the last 1520 years, apart from dividends, you haven’t gone anywhere. I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon. So I think the bank sector will struggle. I think the premium that you’re paying for right now probably won’t last into next year and we don’t see a lot of upside holding that. But you know most investors, retail investors in the banking sector bought it really cheap. So they’re getting good dividends.