Bills' Super Bowl window might be closing, breaking down NFL divisional round plus 13 crazy playoff stats

Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

My understanding is that the city of Detroit is still standing today, which is mildly surprising to hear because I thought for sure Lions fans were going to burn the entire thing to the ground in celebration of watching their team advance to the NFC championship game for the FIRST TIME since 1991.

To put that in perspective, if this newsletter existed then, I would have probably had to handwrite the entire thing and mail it to you at the post office because I’m not sure the technically capabilities existed to get it to you virtually. Maybe we’ll go the mailing route if the Lions win the Super Bowl.

Anyway, the Lions are one of four teams left standing after the weekend and they’ll be joined by the 49ers, Ravens and Chiefs in the conference title round.

Speaking of the conference title games, we’ll be taking an early look at those in today’s newsletter. Plus, we’ll be breaking down the divisional round, and we’ll also be doing some overreactions and reality checks. Let’s get to the rundown.

As always, here’s your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them.

1. Today’s show: Biggest questions after the divisional round

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If I fall asleep while writing the newsletter today, it’s because I stayed up way too late last night to record a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson.

The three of us touched on our biggest takeaways from the divisional round. Here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer:

• Is the Bills’ championship window now closed? The window will never be shut as long as Josh Allen is their QB, but this certainly felt like their last chance to finally beat the Chiefs. Not to mention, the Bills were essentially all-in on 2023: They have several key players set to hit free agency in 2024 (You can see the list here) and they won’t have much cap room to work with (They’re currently about $50 million over the cap for 2024). The Bills will be a playoff contender with Allen, but based on how they’re currently constructed, it’s hard to see them getting to the Super Bowl in the next year or two. 
• Are the Chiefs now the team to beat in the playoffs? With both top seeds (Ravens and 49ers) advancing to the conference title round, it seems kind of crazy to think of the Chiefs as the team to beat, but it sure feels that way. Not only have they stepped it up in the playoffs, but they’re the defending champs until someone knocks them off and no one has done that. I certainly wouldn’t bet against Patrick Mahomes at this point. 
• Which team is better situated for the future: Packers or Texans? Both teams appear to have found a franchise quarterback, so we decided to debate which one of these teams has a brighter future. I picked the Texans, but that had a lot to do with the division they play in. The AFC South isn’t that strong and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Texans win more division titles than the Packers will in the NFC North over the next five years. 

2. Breaking down the divisional round: 49ers hang on versus Packers, Ravens roll against Texans

Since things got kind of crazy over the weekend, we thought it would make sense to at least take a brief look at what happened in each game, so that’s what we’re going to do here.

• (1) Ravens 34-10 over (4) Texans. This game was tied at halftime, but the Ravens blew it open during a second half where they outscored Houston 24-0. The Texans simply had no answers for a Ravens rushing attack that totaled 229 yards. Lamar Jackson was the star of the show with four total touchdowns (two passing, two rushing) and 100 rushing yards. As good as Jackson was, the Ravens’ defense was even better. The Texans didn’t run a single play inside of Baltimore’s 25-yard line on a day where the Ravens limited Houston to just three points on offense (The other seven came on a punt return TD). 
• (1) 49ers 24-21 over (7) Packers. The Packers looked like they had control of this game through the first three quarters, but then they melted down in the fourth. They had three possessions in the final quarter, and those ended with a three-and-out, a missed field goal and an interception. Jordan Love played impressive football for the better part of three quarters, but then he struggled in crunch time. Love had just 19 passing yards and an interception during a fourth quarter where the Packers weren’t able to do anything on offense. On the flip side, Brock Purdy threw for 68 yards in the final quarter, which is a big reason why the 49ers were able to outscore the Packers 10-0 in the quarter to avoid the upset. Christian McCaffrey was once again an unstoppable machine with 128 total yards and two touchdowns. 
• (3) Lions 31-23 over (4) Buccaneers. The Lions offense got off to a slow start, but then Jahmyr Gibbs sparked things in the second half with 89 of his 114 yards coming over the final two quarters. Jared Goff also came up clutch for the Lions, throwing for 287 yards and two touchdowns. Goff was especially impressive during a fourth quarter where he completed 11 of 12 passes for 131 yards. Baker Mayfield did his best to turn this into a shootout with 349 passing yards and three touchdowns, but in the end, he couldn’t overcome a Lions defense that sacked him four times while also picking him off twice. Amon Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta combined to catch 17 passes for 142 yards in the win. 
• (3) Chiefs 27-24 over (2) Bills. For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes played in a road playoff game, but that didn’t seem to bother him. The Chiefs QB threw for 215 yards and two touchdowns, which both went to Travis Kelce. The Bills defense struggled against a Kansas City offense that only punted one time in the entire game. Although Mahomes didn’t put up spectacular numbers, the Chiefs offense was still able to move the ball, thanks to Isiah Pacheco (15 carries for 97 yards and a TD) and a Chiefs rushing attack that totaled 147 yards. The Chiefs defense struggled to slow down Josh Allen, but the unit came through when it mattered most, holding the Bills to zero points in the fourth quarter. The Bills got no help from their special teams. Not only did they run an ill-advised fake punt in the fourth quarter (you can see it here), but Tyler Bass also missed a potential game-tying 44-yard field goal with just under two minutes left to play. 

The Bills were the only home team to lose during the divisional round.

3. Overreactions and reality checks from the divisional round

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Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that’s especially true when we’re talking about the NFL playoffs. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL during the divisional round to decide if we’re all overreacting.

Statement: Tyler Bass cost the Bills the game.

Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. “Bass missing the kick was bad, of course, but if he had made it, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs offense would’ve had just under two minutes to kick a field goal themselves and win the game. … The Bass miss will be discussed again and again — especially since it echoed history by going wide right — but Stefon Diggs’ drops and the special teams miscues cost the Bills. Bass’ field goal miss was just the cherry on top.”

Statement: All the pressure is now on the Ravens in the AFC title game.

Overreaction or reality:

 Reality. “Mahomes is 3-2 in conference championship games, so he has the experience needed to go to the Super Bowl (even if this is his first conference championship on the road). The Ravens are new to this situation during the Lamar Jackson era. They also are at home and have an NFL-record 11 wins against teams with a winning record. Baltimore is hosting a conference championship game for the first time since 1971 against a team that plays at this stage every year. There’s pressure on the Chiefs, but this is Jackson’s best chance at a Super Bowl. For Mahomes and Kansas City, they have been there and done that.”

Statement: Baker Mayfield deserves to be paid like a top-10 QB. Overreaction or reality: Reality. “Mayfield certainly deserves a contract extension from the Buccaneers based on how he’s played this season, especially over the last eight games. … The 10th-highest paid quarterback makes an average annual salary of $40 million — and that’s Daniel Jones. Mayfield is certainly better than him and proved it based on how well he played in Year 1 with Dave Canales as his play-caller. What does Mayfield have in store for Year 2? Mayfield may not be a top-10 quarterback, but he deserves that salary based on how the market shapes up.”

There are plenty more overreactions from the divisional round, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here.

4. 13 crazy stats from the divisional round

Every Sunday night I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played.

With that in mind, here are 13 crazy facts from the divisional round:

1. 49ers are familiar with the NFC title game. The 49ers’ trip to the NFC title game will be their 19th since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. Not only is that number a record, but it’s four more than the next closest team in the NFC. (In the AFC, the Steelers have the most appearances with 16.). This is also San Francisco’s third straight trip to the NFC title game and fourth in the past five seasons. 
2. Chiefs are familiar with the AFC title game. With their win over the Bills, the Chiefs have now advanced to their SIXTH straight conference title game, which is the second-longest streak in NFL history. Only the Patriots have more with eight (2011-18). 
3. 49ers have more playoff wins than almost anyone. With their win over the Packers, the 49ers are now tied for the most playoff wins of any team in NFL history. With 37 postseason victories, the 49ers are tied with the Patriots and Packers and they could have the record to themselves with a win over the Lions this week. 
4. Kyle Shanahan ends ugly drought. Going into the divisional round, the 49ers were 0-31 under Shanahan when trailing by five or more points entering the fourth quarter. That streak ended on Saturday with the 49ers overcoming a seven-point deficit in the win. 
5. Lamar Jackson makes history. The Ravens QB became the first player in NFL history to rush for 100 yards, finish with a QB rating over 100 while also rushing for two touchdowns and passing for two touchdowns. Jackson also became just the fifth player in NFL history to finish a playoff game with two passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns. 
6. Ravens set to finally host an AFC Championship. The win over the Texans means that the Ravens will get to host the AFC title game for the first time in franchise history.
7. Lions biggest postseason ever. The Lions have two postseason wins this year, which is more victories than they had in every other season combined in the Super Bowl era. From 1966 thru 2022, they had one win. 
8. Lions looking to end some long streaks. After ending their 32-year drought without a playoff win, the Lions will need to end two other streaks if they want to get to the Super Bowl. They’ve lost 13 straight road games to the 49ers (They haven’t won at San Francisco since 1975). They also haven’t won a road playoff game since 1957, which coincidentally enough came against the 49ers. 
9. NFC title game drought. With the Lions advancing to the NFC Championship, that means there are only two teams that have yet to make it to the NFC title game this century: the Commanders (1991) and Cowboys (1995). 
10. Jared Goff joins impressive club. The Lions’ win over the Buccaneers was their 14th of the season, which makes Goff just the third QB in history to lead multiple teams to 14 wins in a single season. The only other quarterbacks to pull that off are Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. Goff will also become the first Lions QB in franchise history to start three playoff games in the same postseason. 
11. Josh Allen is awesome. The Bills QB rushed for 72 yards against the Chiefs, which means he now has 563 for his career. That moves him past Colin Kaepernick (507) and Russell Wilson (527) for the second most in NFL history. He now trails only Steve Young (594). With two rushing touchdowns, Allen also now has 18 rushing scores on the season, which is tied with Jalen Hurts for the most in NFL history.
12. Butt-kicking. After scoring nine points against the Bills, Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker now has 140 for his postseason career, which is the sixth most in NFL history. Butker passed Jerry Rice, who was previously ranked sixth with 132 points.
13. Mahomes-Kelce connection makes history. Patrick Mahomes threw two touchdown passes to Travis Kelce against the Bills, which marks the 15th and 16th time they’ve connected for a TD in the playoffs. That moves them ahead of Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski for the most scoring connections in NFL postseason history. Brady threw 15 TD passes to Gronk. 

If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me.

5. Early odds for the AFC and NFC title games

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We’ll be covering the AFC and NFC title games here all week, so I won’t dive into these two games very much today. That said, I didn’t want to completely ignore them, so here are the early odds for each game. Not surprisingly, the two home teams are favored.

Sunday, Jan. 28

(3) Chiefs at (1) Ravens, 3 p.m. ET (CBS)

Current point spread: Ravens -3.5

The Ravens will be hosting an AFC title game for the first time in franchise history and it’s going to be a monumental showdown with Lamar Jackson facing off against Patrick Mahomes. These two teams haven’t met in a game since 2021, which came on a day where the Ravens beat the Chiefs 36-35. We probably won’t see that type of shootout on Sunday and that’s mainly because this game will feature two of the best defenses in the NFL. The Ravens gave up the fewest points in the league this year (16.5) and the Chiefs gave up the second fewest (17.3). Although we’ll have MVP quarterbacks going at it, this game will likely come down to which defense plays better.

Sunday, Jan. 28

(3) Lions at (1) 49ers, 6:30 p.m. ET (Fox)

Current point spread: 49ers -6.5

The Lions will be attempting to get to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history, but to do that, they’re going to have to end two long droughts. For one, they haven’t won a road playoff game since 1957. However, in a twist of fate, their last road playoff win did come against the 49ers. Also, the Lions haven’t won ANY road games against the 49ers since 1975. Over the past 48 years, they’ve played in San Francisco 13 times and they’ve lost all 13 games. This game is likely going to come down to whether the Lions can stop the pass. They surrendered the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL this year and they’ll be going up against a 49ers offense that averaged 257.9 passing yards per game, which was the fourth most in the league. Also, the health of Deebo Samuel will be worth watching this week. The 49ers star injured his shoulder on Saturday, and right now, there’s a 50-50 chance that he’ll play in the NFC title game, according to ESPN.

6. Extra points: Lions to sign three-time Pro Bowler

It’s been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it’s nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

• Zach Ertz to sign with Lions. With the Super Bowl in their sights, the Lions made a major move on Monday by signing Ertz, according to NFL.com. The Lions were in need of some tight end depth after losing their No. 2 guy, Brock Wright, to an injury on Sunday. Ertz was released by the Cardinals just after Thanksgiving and he’s been a free agent since then, which is why he was available to be signed right now. 
• Eagles dump Sean Desai, won’t bring back Matt Patricia. In a move that won’t surprise anyone, Philadelphia decided to get rid of Desai. The Eagles defensive coordinator got demoted in December and at that point, it became clear that he probably wouldn’t be returning. The man who took Desai’s place, Matt Patricia, is also out. Patricia’s contract is expiring and the Eagles won’t be renewing it, which means they’ll definitely have a new defensive coordinator in 2024. 
• Bears appear to have found their new offensive coordinator. It looks like the Bears are going to fill their open OC job by hiring Shane Waldron, according to NFL.com. Waldron spent the past three seasons as the OC for the Seahawks, but now he’ll be heading to an interesting spot in Chicago (It’s mostly interesting because no one knows who the Bears starting QB will be in 2024. It could be Justin Fields or they could end up using the top pick in the NFL Draft to take a new QB). 
• Bill Belichick being eyed by other teams. Although he’s only interviewed with one team so far (the Falcons), Pro Football Talk has reported that multiple teams are interested in Belichick, including at least one unnamed team that doesn’t currently have a head coaching vacancy. It will be interesting to see where Belichick ends up and it won’t be surprising at all if he’s hired by someone before the end of the month. 
• Mike McCarthy not expected to get contract extension. The Cowboys coach will be returning in 2024, but he won’t have the safety net of a new contract. McCarthy’s current deal is set to expire following the 2024 season and the Cowboys aren’t planning to give him an extension, according to ESPN. This means McCarthy’s back is going to be against the wall, which could make the 2024 season a wild one in Dallas. 
• Combine staying in Indy through 2025. The NFL combine will not be leaving Indy for at least the next two years. Although there had been some speculation that the league was looking to turn it into the draft — and move it from city to city — that won’t be happening until 2026 at the earliest. The NFL has announced that the 2024 combine and 2025 combine will both be in Indy. 
• Raiders hire Antonio Pierce as head coach. The Raiders made their coaching hire late Friday after the newsletter went out, so it’s technically old news, but we thought we should mention it here. Pierce is expected to dump most of his offensive coaching staff from 2023. Also, one of his first moves was to bring in former Bengals coach Marvin Lewis, who will serve on Pierce’s staff in some capacity (You can read more about that here). 
• Head coaching tracker. The Falcons have scheduled a second interview with Jim Harbaugh and that’s expected to go down at some point this week. If you want to stay up to date on all the coaching interviews going on around the NFL, be sure to follow our coaching tracker here.