askST: What is global stocktake at COP28? What does it mean for climate ambition?

SINGAPORE – The upcoming United Nations climate change conference in Dubai will see the culmination of the first global stocktake of where the world stands on climate action.

During the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) from Nov 30 to Dec 12, countries will decide how they will step up climate actions and set more ambitious goals in the years to come.

The Straits Times unpacks what the global stocktake involves and why it is important.

What is the global stocktake? 

A key prong of the Paris Agreement signed in 2015 is for countries to periodically track how they are faring in tackling climate change and keeping global warming to the 1.5 deg C limit.

This global stocktake, which happens every five years, allows countries to take stock of how well they have done, and how to address their shortcomings to raise global climate ambition.

The process consists of three phases: information collection and preparation (from COP26 in November 2021 to the Bonn climate talks in June 2023); technical assessment of data to produce summary reports on mitigation, adaptation and finance, as well as an overarching synthesis report; and political consideration of outputs, which will take place at COP28.

Since this “health check” process started in 2021, governments, businesses and civil society groups have submitted more than 170,000 pages of documents, which include country-level climate data, climate finance reports, as well as the latest scientific research.

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis report, released in March 2023, takes into account five years’ worth of climate science research.

All the information gathered was then condensed into a synthesis report, which was launched on Sept 8.

It found that while there has been global progress in climate change mitigation since the landmark Paris Agreement, more needs to be done to limit temperature rise to 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels. So far, the world has warmed by close to 1.2 deg C.

The report includes actions needed to mitigate climate change, adaptation, coping with loss and damage, as well as the state of climate finance and technology transfer from developed to developing nations to help them tackle climate change.

The global stocktake is intended to inform the setting of countries’ next climate targets – also known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) – that are due in 2025. These will represent their national climate targets for 2035.

Countries have also been repeatedly asked to revise their 2030 NDCs to make them more ambitious, with such calls being made during the COP27 conference in Egypt.

For instance, Singapore was among a small number of countries who updated its targets in 2022. It will reduce greenhouse gas emissions to around 60 million tonnes in 2030 after peaking earlier.  Its previous target was to peak emissions at 65 million tonnes by 2030.

More ambitious targets in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions are needed in order for the world to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

We already know that more climate ambition is needed. Is the global stocktake still useful? 

Yes it is, as it marks the most extensive and comprehensive assessment of global action on climate change to date, from the most diverse of stakeholders, said Ms Melissa Low, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions.

“It not only takes into consideration the work of scientists and governments, but it also includes data from cities, businesses, farmers, indigenous communities, and marginalised groups,” she added.

Ms Low stressed that in order for the global stocktake to be effective, it has to ensure equitable participation by all segments of society, such that everyone would have a stake in raising their climate ambition.

What is supposed to happen with the global stocktake in Dubai? 

Following the launch of the synthesis report in September, the global stocktake is now entering the “political phase” at COP28.

Ms Low said that the political-level discussions in Dubai are crucial in determining how and the extent to which countries have to expand their climate ambition in response to the report’s findings.

“The optimal outcome of COP28 would be for countries to adopt strong language that would ensure the new NDCs in 2025 take into account the global stocktake report. This first global stocktake of the Paris Agreement needs to be successful, as the outcome will set the tone for global climate ambition in the years to come,” she added.

On the flip side, countries may land on vague conclusions or even a decision to “take note” of the global stocktake outcomes without committing to using its findings to come up with more ambitious NDCs. This is something that countries should avoid, said Ms Low.

A good outcome would be a clear conclusion that countries must use the stocktake findings to review and submit enhanced NDCs, which will result in more ambitious 2030 and 2035 targets.

What are some potential points of contention on the global stocktake? 

Some countries may not agree with some of the science-based targets being set in the global stocktake synthesis report, such as having emissions fall by 60 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels, in order to limit global warming to 1.5 deg C.

One reason might be because these countries may believe they should be allowed to continue with development in order to deal with more pressing issues such as poverty alleviation.

Mr Tom Evans, a policy advisor in climate change think-tank E3G’s climate diplomacy and geopolitics programme, said that countries may also not be able to agree on new collective goals for global climate action, such as commitments to phase out fossil fuels and transform action to protect nature and food systems.

“There’s also a large debate over historical responsibility for climate change and whether developed countries must do more to reflect their larger historical contribution to emissions, or whether new emerging economies whose emissions are growing fast must also step up action,” he added.

He also pointed to the need for businesses to bring forward their own plans to contribute to climate action, which includes ending the use of fossil fuels, ensuring that their net-zero targets are aligned with 1.5 deg C warming goals and cover all emissions, and ending harmful lobbying practices that slow the green transition.